A.I. Generated Madman Cyberdanov [i]

Fifteen Percent Against the Rest of the World

Introduction

With my latest Article about nuclear deterrence, I laid the groundwork for this update.

My hypothesis is that no leader in any of the major power centers is interested in nuclear escalation as long as his blood-red lines are not crossed. If you haven’t read this article yet, I would recommend you do that now.

I assign some 99.99% probability to that hypothesis. Nevertheless, the expected probability for a nuclear escalation is not 0.01% bur rather somewhere around 15%. Since I explained in my last article who might be responsible for this 15% (incidents, misunderstandings, and mad vassals) I want to present in this article a real-life example.

I want to present to you the A.I. (or whatever technology has been used) generated Kyrylo Budanov, announcing a nuclear terror attack on a Nuclear Power Plant.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1671158103520468992

I want to provide some context:

• Budanov is (was?) the head of the Ukrainian GUR intelligence service.

• He threatens to kill Russians all over the world.

• A few days later a Russian missile landed on his home. Well, indeed it penetrated his office in the GUR Headquarters and allegedly penetrated the bunker below the headquarters.

• There is a high probability that he is either dead (which I believe) or seriously wounded.

• Watching the video above, I come to an unprofessional conclusion that the video is computer generated. I’m absolutely no expert in this field, hence this is only my personal opinion. Based on what? I do plenty of “Zoom” video conferences, where people use virtual backgrounds. And it looks similar to the Budanov video. His head doesn’t seem to merge perfectly with the background. Well, by an order of magnitude better than in “Zoom”, but still, not perfect. It looks like a “Budanov” model has been inserted into the background.

• This virtual Budanov is announcing that Russia could/will blow up the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) in case that Ukrainians troops capture it. That’s why the Russian troops have mined the NPP.

I admit, this is very interesting.

Before we dig deeper into that, one more comment.

I really never ever thought about the possibility that a computer-generated Nazi, who is most likely already dead, would ever threaten the world with a nuclear catastrophe. I’m more than baffled.

ZNPP

Recently, I observed plenty of discussion about the potential that someone could blow that plant up. I will not re-chew all the scenarios. Others did that already. What I want to do is to say one thing. No official structure of one of the major countries of the world (which Ukraine is NOT) will ever come up with such an insane idea. Neither in the USA nor in the UK. Why?

• Russia considers Zaporizhia as RUSSIA. According to the Russian constitution it IS Russia.

• The West is OFFICIALLY at war with Russia. President Putin’s press secretary Dimitry Peskov stated that a few days ago. The war is between the West and Russia, and its kinetic component is constrained to the territories of Ukraine and those formerly considered Ukraine, with the exclusion of official Western troops in this region and with the exclusion of any kind of entry of official Western assets into this region under NATO flag (such as jet fighters or transport aircraft). These are the rules.

• Moreover, it has been stated that all actions of the Kiev regime are considered as controlled, planned and ordered in Washington and London. Hence, if “Ukraine” blows up something in Russia, which it actually is doing regularly, Russia considers it as an attack from Washington or London. The reason why there is no OVERT retaliation is escalation management. Russia is currently not at the stage where it says, “screw it, we will all go to hell”. However, that could change within a single second. It always depends on what action is being done against Russia by “Ukraine” (The West, of course).

• The destruction of a Russian nuclear power plant is being considered as a nuclear attack against Russia. ZNPP is a Russian nuclear power plant according to the Russian constitution. Blow it up and you attacked Russia with a nuke. Think of all the contamination, radiation and fallout on Russian soil. It doesn’t matter if you cover it as a false flag and blame Russia for having blown up its own NPP where its own troops are stationed.

• It doesn’t matter how bad the damage is.

I hope you can follow my argument/deduction chain.

Don’t think about it in the sense that ANY person in charge of a Western major power could have planned and approved such a thing. And yet, Cyberdanov (Cyber Budanov) is speaking about such an event. Which brings me back to the 15%.

Ukraine is gradually losing power over all of its structures. The more people who die, the more panic and paranoia spreads. As Russia targets ever more command and decision-making centers, the Ukrainians gradually lose the ability to control its assets effectively. The current ongoing offensive is being led by two people who are either both dead, wounded, or in custody. Putting irony aside, there is an ever-growing effort to replace commanders and decision makers with new people, while at the same time keeping the deceased people “alive” with computer animated models.

The Americans and the British had full power in Ukraine as long as all command structures were intact. I assume that even they are gradually losing grip over all structures within Ukraine. It’s not at a critical level, but still. There are reports that some Ukrainian intelligence agencies do not fully cooperate with the Americans and Brits.

Moreover (attention, cynics), there are reports that even the Americans don’t have full control over all of their intelligence agencies. Here you can find people that could potentially consider executing plans to drag NATO into the conflict at any cost.

I want to present to you a hypothetical chain of events for the sake of explanation of my 15%. The following scenario is fictional, and one possibility out of thousands. It explains what kind of unfortunate circumstances are needed to trigger a nuclear war even though the leaders of the great power don’t want it. Here we go:

1. US Senator Lindsey Graham visited President (???) Zelensky in Kiev a month ago. President (???) Zelensky showed Senator Lindsey Graham the plan for the announced offensive. Allegedly the Ukrainians didn’t share the plans with many Western people, except a few like Senator Graham. Apparently, he was very satisfied. Perhaps he even brought a little update with him. Which he wasn’t able to communicate over official channels. What kind of meeting was that? An alignment? Now I’m going to speculate. Did they align the plan with each other to drag in NATO? And I do not state that this would be the official American position. I have the feeling that some Senators doing their own independent business together with “some” US intelligence agencies.

2. The plan could look like this:

   • Start an impossible offensive in Zaporizhia. Allegedly aimed at Crimea. Throw in some percentage of the offensive potential and keep on pushing/depleting your offensive potential to make it look real. Like the Kherson offensive in 2022. Which eventually was a distraction for Kharkov.

   • Let Cyberdanov and Senator Graham announce after a certain period of time that if Russia uses nuclear weapons or blows up a nuclear reactor, it would be considered as an attack on NATO. Which would qualify it for the activation of article 5. Moreover, announce that Russia has mined its own reactor which is located on its own territory not far away (relatively) from Moscow (gosh).

   • We are going to assume for this fictional scenario that the “Prigozhin-coup” was either known to Western services in advance or even coordinated and launched by them.

   • The rationale would be that when chaos breaks out in Russia because of the coup, that the supply chain for the Russian forces in Ukraine would be disrupted and Ukraine could unleash its full offensive potential to punch through to the ZNPP. This would be the plan that has been communicated between Zelensky and Graham in Kiev.

   • At the arrival of the Ukrainian forces at the ZNPP it would be blown up by the GUR.

   • Here I have two sub-assumptions. Either/or:

     • NATO would use that event as a trigger to intervene. At least that could be the thinking of people like Graham. (This event is so insane, that I can’t even think about potential consequences.)

     • Russia would consider that as a nuclear attack against its soil and launch a counter strike at decision making centers in Europe. Either with missiles with small nukes attached or conventional ordinance.

     • Start of WW3 and perhaps global extinction.

Again, I do not propose that this will happen. I wanted to make up a potential scenario to explain to you how crazy/mad people (15% scenario; Lost Russian Roulette scenario) could potentially stage a chain of events that would give them their long-wanted annihilation of Russia. They perhaps either believe in supremacy — that they would win a nuclear war (madness)— or they don’t care. If they go under, the rest of the world would follow. To be fair here, the Russians officially have the same approach. Quoting President Putin: “What do we need a world for, without Russia? We will be martyrs.”

There is only a small difference. Russia would blow up the world in its own defense. The 15% madman would do it during an attack on a country several thousands of miles away from the US mainland (not taking Alaska into account).

You can take my fictional scenario and try to develop your own scenarios. But I don’t think that even US zombie President Biden would remotely think of a nuclear war with Russia. Or the start of WW3. We are talking about some interest groups, both in America and Europe, that are acting on their own to push a certain agenda.

Okay, let’s come back to the ZNPP. I see no way that anyone would blow up the ZNPP apart of some very unlikely constellations of semiofficial interest groups. But even this scenario is very unlikely. I do not hold my breath about the ZNPP.

Distraction

Nevertheless, it is a very bad and uncomfortable situation for Russia to have a huge invasion force right around the corner from the ZNPP. This is not a game. The threat needs to be removed ASAP.

Considering the number of remaining troops and the extremely diminished pace of the Ukrainian offensive, this could drag out for some time.

This of course leads us to the offensive in the Kharkov oblast. It brings two advantages for Russia:

1. Getting the troops a step back to Izyum. Izyum is a strategic town that is the key to Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. There is no siege of these two towns without Izyum. Russia lost that town last summer. The Russian 1st tank army is currently approaching Kupyansk and Lyman, which are on the way to Izyum.

2. Since it looks like that it is a bigger push, even though not a (newspeak) “Big Arrow” offensive, it looks like the Ukrainians are forced to divert huge reserves to the Kharkov oblast.

The Ukrainian professional military potential needs to be destroyed. President Putin himself recently said in an interview with several Russian journalists that it is a pity that the Ukrainians can’t attack in Kherson as well. Because of the destruction of the dam and the consequent flooding. Of course, it is a pity. The amount of time needed to destroy the last trained iteration of Ukrainian troops stretches out because of this situation.

Hence, as already described above, the continuation of several meatgrinder operations across Donbass. And the new larger push on Kupyansk and Lyman.

Strategic Reserves

On June 22 it was announced that Russia is currently in the process of forming one reserve army and one reserve army corps. Defense minister Shoigu reported that to President Putin. These armies should be ready at the end of June. That is an interesting coincidence.

Many people didn’t make much out of it. But it especially caught my eye. Those who know my older analysis know that I estimated very low chances for large-scale Russian offensives. So-called “Big Arrow” offensives. I gave two reasons:

1. Lack of logistics potential in place. I’m constantly looking for evidence that Russia is shipping large quantities of logistics equipment and vehicles to Belarus, Belgorod, Rostov, or Crimea. I have not seen any evidence yet. For several months I looked for that, but since so much time has passed that it is possible that it has happened in a covert way. I’m talking especially about auxiliary equipment for mobile deep penetration formations. Such as tankers, pipe layers, and a huge number of military trucks. These are only examples. For a better explanation take this article into account. Here is a short side note: Sometimes I have doubts that Russia even HAS enough working auxiliary equipment to support a large-scale offensive move. It might have Soviet stuff but who knows.

2. The lack of reserve armies that are being equipped, trained, and held in the rear to replace large losses of the Russian troops during their offensive operations.

We need to keep in mind the following. If Russia starts big arrow offensives then Russia is the offensive force. Exactly, as Ukraine currently is in Zaporizhia. Ukraine is losing 10 soldiers in the time that Russia loses 1. In the ongoing Ukrainian offensive. 1:10 is a horrific ratio which applies because all odds are against Ukraine. One could say it is an impossible offensive.

Under normal circumstances, where both opponents are equal, one needs a 3 to 1 advantage in manpower because of the expected loses. Since Russia has all advantages on its side, I assume casualties at a 1:1 ratio. That is still horrific and not comparable to an SMO.

If we assume that Ukraine could assemble some 80,000 troops (combination of trained and untrained) to defend against a large-scale Russian offensive, then the expected Russian losses could be still very high. 1:1 doesn’t mean that to kill all 80,000 Ukrainian troops Russia would lose 80,000 soldiers as well. It is to be expected that the Ukrainians would start to collapse after sustaining a certain number of casualties. But there is still the potential for 30,000 – 60,000 Russian causalities during such an offensive. Which would need to be steadily replenished with battalions and regiments from reserve armies that are being constantly trained and replenished in the rear.

Russia didn’t have that until now. Apparently, according to Minister Shoigu, Russia will have that from July 1 onwards. Everything that is currently happening appears to be a very strange series of coincidences.

Just to underline these odd circumstances: Ukraine announced a general mobilization all across the country.

Offensive

This leads me to the question: Are we closer to the point where the NATO-trained army is destroyed then we/I know? Perhaps. If you remember, my assumption is that as soon as the NATO-trained army is destroyed, Russia will go on the offensive. I didn’t call it a “Big Arrow” offensive because there is not much that Ukraine could put in their way apart from freshly mobilized people from the streets.

Three risks remain:

• The remains of the Ukrainian “counteroffensive” will be dispersed among the territorial defense people, to bring in “experience” (of being slaughtered?).

• The West could start to mobilize a huge stream of “mercenaries” (soldiers that simply change uniform) and send them to plug holes at certain front sections.

• Western special forces would, without a doubt, play a big role in setting up traps, ambushes, and insurgencies against the Russians.

These risks combined bring me to my estimation of potential Russian loses, outlined above.

I don’t want to speculate yet about such an offensive. Let’s wait another few days or weeks then we will know more. We are truly living in two historical months I guess. The “coup” in Russia will have long-term effects and there is a high probability that in July or August the Russian offensive will start. It is the perfect time.

• The professional Ukrainian army will be destroyed.

• Russia built up necessary forces and equipment (I hope for auxiliary equipment as well).

• The ground will be perfect for mechanized movements.

• Perhaps we could count covert pre-positioning of forces and equipment in as well. I have such a feeling (Not just because of the “coup”).

Wagner

Wagner and other elite assault   units would have been assigned very important tasks in such an offensive. And Wagner WILL HAVE a very important role in the coming offensive. I don’t know whether Wagner will still exist as an organization. But here are three scenarios:

• Under any circumstances we can conclude that the Wagner officers and soldiers are, due to their excellent training and experience from Artemovsk, a strategic value. Either they will be incorporated into the Russian army as a division (or whatever) or the soldiers and officers will be dispersed across all Russian formations.

• I assume that something like Wagner will continue to exist. Because it is strategically important to Russia for power projection worldwide. Either it will be broken-up during the duration of the SMO and later re-constituted or the work on a new unit with a new name will begin in secrecy. Perhaps in Belarus? (Cynicism? Irony? Joke? We’ll see).

• The least probable case is that Wagner will simply continue to exist as it was and continue to operate as nothing happened.

Shoigu

To be honest, Defense minister Shoigu is damaged. He is critically damaged. It doesn’t matter what I think of him. If a whole uprising has been (officially) staged to get rid of him and all kinds of politicians and military leaders are constantly complaining about him, then such a person is critically damaged. In fact, he only can still act because he has the (public) backing of President Putin. A leader who can only hold position because of the backing of a higher (highest) position, will get no respect from his people.

People will listen to him because of President Putin. Not because the person Sergei Shoigu. I can confirm this entirely from my experience in the business world. I don’t know whether one can transfer that to a general in Russia but I think one can. Having such a damaged person in charge of a wartime army is fatal.

I would plead that he be removed ASAP. And it hasn’t got anything to do with the person or what I think about his skills. It has something to do to achieve the best possible results. And this is only possible if someone is in charge of the Ministry of Defense who has all the respect needed from his generals. This is definitely NOT the case with Shoigu. I’m sorry about that but these are simply cold, hard, rational considerations to get the best results.

And something tells me this could happen soon.

Russian Casualties

I don’t want to speculate here about the number of Russian casualties. Without data it doesn’t make sense. What I want to do is to highlight that there ARE high causalities on the Russian side in the defense battles in Zaporizhia. The fact that they are ten times lower than the Ukrainian ones doesn’t make them small. It is only that Ukraine has losses that are devastating and unsustainable (war crime of the Kiev Nazis against its population).

Russian regiments get worn down at the frontline to critical levels and get rotated out for re-staffing and recreation.

I wanted to highlight this fact out of respect for the fallen service members. I can’t bear it when people celebrate the “easy” and “epic” slaughter of the Ukrainians without expressing any thoughts about the fallen Russians. This is my way to show my respect to these warriors and their families.

[i] Edited by Piquet (EditPiquet@gmail.com)