I do not see how Putin can remove either Shoigu or Gerasimov . It would look like he was doing so because of Prigozhin and would make him look very weak . Just because Prigozhin detests Shoigu and Gerasimov doesn't mean that the Russian Professional Officer Corps also do . Remember Prigozhin isn't military .
But if you want to get rid of someone, there are plenty ways of achieving that without using the hammer. And it could happen after months when the current events are no longer that much present.
You would find other problems with the person... sudden corruption if the person deserves it. Or a new "better" job for the person in the civil industry, if you don't want to damage his reputation too much.
These are only a few ways to get rid of a person without a hammer :))
But yes, I agree that if you would do it NOW and name the reason it would be a catastrophic approach.
PS: I read for months, if not years that the Officer Corps constantly complains about him. That's why I wrote that.
Of course there are no primary sources. If a general would state that publicly his career would be over. That's the same all over the world.
But there are indeed critics in the State Duma. Which of course have their sources in the military.
To be honest. I assume that Shoigu is managing the Defense Ministry well. His job is not to command troops but to be a efficient manager in the Ministry.
But it is the human nature that in war time the people try to rally around a strong war leader with experience. And it is natural that they doubt Shoigu during wartime, however good he is managing his Ministry. And that is NOT good for the SMO even though Shoigu could potentially doing a good job.
You got my thoughts?
I assume I should have described that in more detail in the article.
I understand your take about human feelings, but at the same time as you says the Minister of Defence is a manager, or let’s say an accountant.
I assume he does not decide strategy but manage the logistics and so on.
So the supreme commander of the army is Putin and after him Gerasimov.
I don’t see like a strong leader in the Minister of Defence add a lot of value.
I think better than replacing him is just to explain people that the role of the defence minister is to manage bureaucratic stuff to allow the militars to take decisions.
Prigozhin has for sure damage Shoigu reputation, but I don’t think we should fall in it
Tuva is full of nomadic yurt-dwellers like Mongolia, yes? Perhaps he could lead or sponsor a new motorized infantry PMC (yes, including motorbikes) unit called the Tuvan Renaissance. They will be equipped with ATGM's and truck-mounted AA a la Chad's technicals during the Toyota War.
In the same way that this war has pulled T-55's and T-64's out of retirement, revived trench warfare and re-emphasized artillery, perhaps we shall see a return of wheeled cavalry - the horse archer hordes of a new age.
That's actually a very good solution. It gets him out of the way while giving the finger to Prigozhin. Two birds with one stone AND it doesn't give the appearance of Putin caving in to pressure or appearing weak.
He simply can stay but as 'shadow' mod, meaning someone else really decides and not him. Or he can be occupied for diplomatics talks receiving mod from multiple countries(like Cuba today). etc...logistic.He was not bad I read in his former position to take care of catastophies(natural disasters, earthquakes, big fires in the summer etc..)
Sure looks like a CG fake: "his" head is clearly a paste up; the neck, shoulders, and upper torso are almost motionless; only "his" mouth seems to move.
Alternative viewpoint. There will be no big arrow move on Kharkov. The Ukrainians are currently gearing up for crossing the Dnepr in Kherson region. This was very evident from the point onward where they destroyed the Kharkova dam. Making landings into the enemy's rear has always been part and parcel of Western strategy, and it's the West that does all the planning. But what better way to lure them into a kill sack? Let many of them cross, then destroy the dams upstream to swell the river, then destroy the ones who have crossed. The Ukrainians have about two weeks left before the NATO meeting in Vilnius. Everything has been telegraphed and is completely predictable. The plan is to cross the Dnepr and the reservoir, attack the ZNPP, stage a false flag explosion at the ZNPP and get NATO involved.
I agree about the Dnieper. But it was expected by the Russians long ago.
President Putin recently said that it is a pity that the Ukrainians DID NOT cross the Dnieper. It would have been an opportunity for Russia to bring that even faster to an end.
Very weired situation. But I agree, that the Ukrainians will try to do that. The landed already on the left side of the river and are hiding under the "Antonovsky bridge" where they get hammered with everything.
Budanov does seem a deep fake. Only his mouth moves. There's absolutely no movement or breathing of his body. An appropriate name for the dummy is Kyrylo Badanov like Boris Badanov of Rocky and Bullwinkle fame.
I really wish to be sure there is only 1 probability on 6 ... I pray You are right.
If I may waste a little of Your time, if You are confortable with it... in a class of good people divide them in team of 3/4 students, assign every group to a nation/block and wargame what they could/will do... Brainstorming... and I believe someone of them will surprise you with something You hadn't though about...
You could sell it like a deep thinking case...
You will be the game master... like a dnd session...
Not my idea, I only remembered it from a Jim Rickards book...
Or more professionally... assign some friends in the know the same roles... Mike?
I don't know if You have undergraduates or some classes of MBAs... Putting in such roles older guys, maybe affirmed and expert guys and maybe also knowledgeable people for their real work (team of three? 1 prez, 1 minister of economy, 1 minister of war) could be fun and interesting... You could read Jim Rickards' first book (if I'm correct) or ask help to Mike or a friend with dnd gamemaster experience on how to plot the path/story...
Or simply put them in this real time... no ucrony...
"...if Putin wanted to remove either Shoigu or Gerasimov, doing so in response to a faux-uprising is the worst way to do it, because this would give the appearance of Putin bowing to the demands of a terrorist. "
If I wanted to claim that the l'Affaire Wagner was part of some incredibly well-orchestrated Eleven Dimensional Chess Master Plan (for the record, I do not), I'd say that the planners were not Putin, but Shoigu and/or Gerasimov, because now they are untouchable.
Absolutely not for me. I admitted in the article that I'm not an expert and that my opinion about that is "unprofessional". But I saw more comments here in the comment section suggesting the same.
I brought that up because several other sources which I trust are claiming the same.
I read for example that you need to have extremely short hair or be bald for such deep fakes to look more natural. Because it is extremely difficult to emulate the movement of hair. (I'm NOT an expert). Budanov had hair. In this video he suddenly has very short or none hair. Also odd.
But again, sources I trust, claim it is computer generated and I have no way to verify that.
@All:
If there is an expert around here could you please comment on that?
A repost that I can't verify but note the last paragraph. Implies French reaction would be atomic. But what would trigger their use/release ? Absent any clear threat to metropolitan France...
Nazis (CIA) and Zionists (Israel) are two wings of the same genocidal bird. This bird killed the Republic of the USA in 1963 with the JFK assassination. They created a terrorist unipolar government with 911. They might nuke the entire Northern Hemisphere if their plans are ruined by BRICS+. Apparantly, greater than wealth and power is the sensation in parasitizing and destroying civilizations.
Germany lost WWII and is still occupied, but nazis did not lose the war unfortunately they were simply relocated (US, Canada some EU countries with gladio missions, latin America).
Aleks, I would like to draw your attention to how this world is really operating. Your analyses are great, but you assume the countries and their goovernments (US, EU, UK...) are the highest decision making centers, and everything they do is in the best interest of their countries. That is only true maybe for Russia, China and some other countries (although they have teir own secret structures). The whole "western world" is under the rule of really insidious groups of people which are hidden behind the curtain, some call them Illuminati, Khazarian Mafia, Masons and whatever. The states are only their instruments of the rule, and the governments are only their puppets. And by controlling the western states, with their economy and military, they have a leverage over the whole world. At least they had so far. But now the times are changing, and they are losing the influence and influence of the east is rising. That is the reason for war. They are trying to start a WW3 where everyone will be destroyed, and they will again crawl out like the kings after. They are now like a wounded beast. That is why we see constant stupid actions of the western leaders which hurt their own countries and their own people. They don't care, they have their orders. Mainstream media brainwashing is at the highest level so the most of the western population has totally wrong picture of what is really happening in the world. This is very dangerous situation, it doesn't take much to set neighbors against each other and start a war. Since there is obvious that they will fail in Ukraine, we will see their desperate attempts to draw US, and NATO countries in the war with Russia by false flags, diversions and everything what is at their disposal. I think that they really paid Prighozin for a coup, but he played them like a double spy, took the money and stopped the coup. That's why retired general Petreaus (their exponent) said to Prigozhin: 'Be careful around open windows'.
Also I think that they are now trying hard to start a war in Kosovo and it looks like they could be successful.
I think the chance of a false flag and NATO going in are higher than 15%, but I don't think that it would automatically trigger a nuclear war.
Basically, Russia is behaving rationally and the USA is not. The American actions have been driven by ideological neocons. I wrote a long post spelling out how/why the neocons are going to do this. I'm calling the upcoming false flag the Nuland Surprise.
And on that note, Victoria Nuland is up for a promotion. If she gets it you can take that as a clear sign that the USA is committed to escalating with a false flag.
On the plus side, I believe that the Russians will continue to act with restraint. Putin has certainly war gamed out all of the possible scenarios and has solid plans to defeat NATO without going nuclear.
I do not see how Putin can remove either Shoigu or Gerasimov . It would look like he was doing so because of Prigozhin and would make him look very weak . Just because Prigozhin detests Shoigu and Gerasimov doesn't mean that the Russian Professional Officer Corps also do . Remember Prigozhin isn't military .
I agree.
But if you want to get rid of someone, there are plenty ways of achieving that without using the hammer. And it could happen after months when the current events are no longer that much present.
You would find other problems with the person... sudden corruption if the person deserves it. Or a new "better" job for the person in the civil industry, if you don't want to damage his reputation too much.
These are only a few ways to get rid of a person without a hammer :))
But yes, I agree that if you would do it NOW and name the reason it would be a catastrophic approach.
PS: I read for months, if not years that the Officer Corps constantly complains about him. That's why I wrote that.
I have one doubt, is there actually any proof that military commanders speak bad about Shoigu?
I just say it because I see a lot of times this info, but u have never seen any real proof that the military is not happy with Shoigu.
In my opinion Shoigu has been a very good minister.
Should he be fired just because Prigozhin decided to lie about him?
Of course there are no primary sources. If a general would state that publicly his career would be over. That's the same all over the world.
But there are indeed critics in the State Duma. Which of course have their sources in the military.
To be honest. I assume that Shoigu is managing the Defense Ministry well. His job is not to command troops but to be a efficient manager in the Ministry.
But it is the human nature that in war time the people try to rally around a strong war leader with experience. And it is natural that they doubt Shoigu during wartime, however good he is managing his Ministry. And that is NOT good for the SMO even though Shoigu could potentially doing a good job.
You got my thoughts?
I assume I should have described that in more detail in the article.
I understand your take about human feelings, but at the same time as you says the Minister of Defence is a manager, or let’s say an accountant.
I assume he does not decide strategy but manage the logistics and so on.
So the supreme commander of the army is Putin and after him Gerasimov.
I don’t see like a strong leader in the Minister of Defence add a lot of value.
I think better than replacing him is just to explain people that the role of the defence minister is to manage bureaucratic stuff to allow the militars to take decisions.
Prigozhin has for sure damage Shoigu reputation, but I don’t think we should fall in it
A promotion or reassignment could be an option. You keep their input and potential advisory role while handing the front man role to someone else.
Change the singer, sure, but the rest of the band still plays the same.
Correct. Something along these thoughts. But I'm sure the state apparatus is far more creative when it comes down to such questions.
Offer him early retirement and a pension and hire him back as a freelance consultant.
The classic corporate sleight of hand.
Yes🤣👍
Tuva is full of nomadic yurt-dwellers like Mongolia, yes? Perhaps he could lead or sponsor a new motorized infantry PMC (yes, including motorbikes) unit called the Tuvan Renaissance. They will be equipped with ATGM's and truck-mounted AA a la Chad's technicals during the Toyota War.
In the same way that this war has pulled T-55's and T-64's out of retirement, revived trench warfare and re-emphasized artillery, perhaps we shall see a return of wheeled cavalry - the horse archer hordes of a new age.
Throat singing required.
https://youtu.be/QpxA_ZxGX_M
He can lead wagner (joking)...in Mali
Omg haha😅👍
That's actually a very good solution. It gets him out of the way while giving the finger to Prigozhin. Two birds with one stone AND it doesn't give the appearance of Putin caving in to pressure or appearing weak.
He simply can stay but as 'shadow' mod, meaning someone else really decides and not him. Or he can be occupied for diplomatics talks receiving mod from multiple countries(like Cuba today). etc...logistic.He was not bad I read in his former position to take care of catastophies(natural disasters, earthquakes, big fires in the summer etc..)
Sure looks like a CG fake: "his" head is clearly a paste up; the neck, shoulders, and upper torso are almost motionless; only "his" mouth seems to move.
Alternative viewpoint. There will be no big arrow move on Kharkov. The Ukrainians are currently gearing up for crossing the Dnepr in Kherson region. This was very evident from the point onward where they destroyed the Kharkova dam. Making landings into the enemy's rear has always been part and parcel of Western strategy, and it's the West that does all the planning. But what better way to lure them into a kill sack? Let many of them cross, then destroy the dams upstream to swell the river, then destroy the ones who have crossed. The Ukrainians have about two weeks left before the NATO meeting in Vilnius. Everything has been telegraphed and is completely predictable. The plan is to cross the Dnepr and the reservoir, attack the ZNPP, stage a false flag explosion at the ZNPP and get NATO involved.
I agree about the Dnieper. But it was expected by the Russians long ago.
President Putin recently said that it is a pity that the Ukrainians DID NOT cross the Dnieper. It would have been an opportunity for Russia to bring that even faster to an end.
Very weired situation. But I agree, that the Ukrainians will try to do that. The landed already on the left side of the river and are hiding under the "Antonovsky bridge" where they get hammered with everything.
Budanov does seem a deep fake. Only his mouth moves. There's absolutely no movement or breathing of his body. An appropriate name for the dummy is Kyrylo Badanov like Boris Badanov of Rocky and Bullwinkle fame.
Hello Sir...
I really wish to be sure there is only 1 probability on 6 ... I pray You are right.
If I may waste a little of Your time, if You are confortable with it... in a class of good people divide them in team of 3/4 students, assign every group to a nation/block and wargame what they could/will do... Brainstorming... and I believe someone of them will surprise you with something You hadn't though about...
You could sell it like a deep thinking case...
You will be the game master... like a dnd session...
Not my idea, I only remembered it from a Jim Rickards book...
Or more professionally... assign some friends in the know the same roles... Mike?
Yes. That’s great. I do that constantly 😁
But not with geopolitics or war but rather with business administration subjects.
I let my students solve real business problems with that role playing approach.
Would be fun to do that with geopolitics... 🤣
Did you hear about the "gamification" approach?
That would be fun with geopolitics... 😅
But yes, you're right. Maybe I find the time to get through such an approach with appropriate people.
Thanks.
I supposed You have done it. :) :) :)
I don't know if You have undergraduates or some classes of MBAs... Putting in such roles older guys, maybe affirmed and expert guys and maybe also knowledgeable people for their real work (team of three? 1 prez, 1 minister of economy, 1 minister of war) could be fun and interesting... You could read Jim Rickards' first book (if I'm correct) or ask help to Mike or a friend with dnd gamemaster experience on how to plot the path/story...
Or simply put them in this real time... no ucrony...
Wish to be a fly in that classroom... :)
Have fun Sir...
In response to another article found elsewhere:
"...if Putin wanted to remove either Shoigu or Gerasimov, doing so in response to a faux-uprising is the worst way to do it, because this would give the appearance of Putin bowing to the demands of a terrorist. "
If I wanted to claim that the l'Affaire Wagner was part of some incredibly well-orchestrated Eleven Dimensional Chess Master Plan (for the record, I do not), I'd say that the planners were not Putin, but Shoigu and/or Gerasimov, because now they are untouchable.
Yes. I gave an answer to another comment that goes in the same direction.
If there is any such planner that can only be GRU.
a brilliant piece!
Thank you so much🤗
I couldn't see that the video linked looked fake. Is there a good way to tell besides just "looking weird"?
Absolutely not for me. I admitted in the article that I'm not an expert and that my opinion about that is "unprofessional". But I saw more comments here in the comment section suggesting the same.
I brought that up because several other sources which I trust are claiming the same.
I read for example that you need to have extremely short hair or be bald for such deep fakes to look more natural. Because it is extremely difficult to emulate the movement of hair. (I'm NOT an expert). Budanov had hair. In this video he suddenly has very short or none hair. Also odd.
But again, sources I trust, claim it is computer generated and I have no way to verify that.
@All:
If there is an expert around here could you please comment on that?
I would appreciate that. Thanks.
A repost that I can't verify but note the last paragraph. Implies French reaction would be atomic. But what would trigger their use/release ? Absent any clear threat to metropolitan France...
https://t.me/Zornkrieger/39927
Well.. this comment can be interpreted both nuclear and conventional. But yes, it is concerning.
Nazis (CIA) and Zionists (Israel) are two wings of the same genocidal bird. This bird killed the Republic of the USA in 1963 with the JFK assassination. They created a terrorist unipolar government with 911. They might nuke the entire Northern Hemisphere if their plans are ruined by BRICS+. Apparantly, greater than wealth and power is the sensation in parasitizing and destroying civilizations.
Germany lost WWII and is still occupied, but nazis did not lose the war unfortunately they were simply relocated (US, Canada some EU countries with gladio missions, latin America).
Aleks, I would like to draw your attention to how this world is really operating. Your analyses are great, but you assume the countries and their goovernments (US, EU, UK...) are the highest decision making centers, and everything they do is in the best interest of their countries. That is only true maybe for Russia, China and some other countries (although they have teir own secret structures). The whole "western world" is under the rule of really insidious groups of people which are hidden behind the curtain, some call them Illuminati, Khazarian Mafia, Masons and whatever. The states are only their instruments of the rule, and the governments are only their puppets. And by controlling the western states, with their economy and military, they have a leverage over the whole world. At least they had so far. But now the times are changing, and they are losing the influence and influence of the east is rising. That is the reason for war. They are trying to start a WW3 where everyone will be destroyed, and they will again crawl out like the kings after. They are now like a wounded beast. That is why we see constant stupid actions of the western leaders which hurt their own countries and their own people. They don't care, they have their orders. Mainstream media brainwashing is at the highest level so the most of the western population has totally wrong picture of what is really happening in the world. This is very dangerous situation, it doesn't take much to set neighbors against each other and start a war. Since there is obvious that they will fail in Ukraine, we will see their desperate attempts to draw US, and NATO countries in the war with Russia by false flags, diversions and everything what is at their disposal. I think that they really paid Prighozin for a coup, but he played them like a double spy, took the money and stopped the coup. That's why retired general Petreaus (their exponent) said to Prigozhin: 'Be careful around open windows'.
Also I think that they are now trying hard to start a war in Kosovo and it looks like they could be successful.
I think the chance of a false flag and NATO going in are higher than 15%, but I don't think that it would automatically trigger a nuclear war.
Basically, Russia is behaving rationally and the USA is not. The American actions have been driven by ideological neocons. I wrote a long post spelling out how/why the neocons are going to do this. I'm calling the upcoming false flag the Nuland Surprise.
And on that note, Victoria Nuland is up for a promotion. If she gets it you can take that as a clear sign that the USA is committed to escalating with a false flag.
On the plus side, I believe that the Russians will continue to act with restraint. Putin has certainly war gamed out all of the possible scenarios and has solid plans to defeat NATO without going nuclear.
I think it doesn't matter how it looks if Shoigu is removed, but rather what is in the interest for Russia in the smo. Thanks Aleks and Piquet