dear god, Mike, you've outdone yourself. There's nowhere else on the internet where you can find this depth and breadth of analysis drafted in a format a layperson can understand. Bravo.
Hi Mike, thanks, finally an overall approach how that war could have looked like. Much appreciated. The rugged territory of Iran is difficult for AD, as approaching aircraft can hug the valleys of Northern Zagros (coming from Iraq and/or Azerbaijan) and thus remain invisible for Iranian RADAR. No difference whether F15, F16 or F35. Except if these valleys are individually defended by SHORAD based on acoustic and visual recognition.
Iran has clear skies in mid June. And a large population equipped with smartphones. How comes, not a single picture emerged showing Israel's planes in Iranian skies? Either flying only at night, at greater altitudes [even than, videos with a dot in the sky and the typical acoustic pattern would have emerged] or didn't fly at all. Leaving the damage for standoff weapons and local cells with Spike and drones.
When it comes to "Fordo" [would be time to stop using this name as Fordo (فردو) is a village South of Qom, whereas the enterprise in question is located North of Qom, near Safarabad] within a black hill range - obviously volcanic basalt] the only evidence given are "satellite" pictures. Sun shows these pictures being taken in early morning ~6 AM local time. That would be possible if a satellite was in position, another 2 hours later the image was processed and released in a strange mix of orientations [top North, W, E, S]. Hard working people. As with many "satellite" pictures in both ongoing wars, they don't show reality but a scripted story. Rather often obviously enhanced with photoshop [BDA edition]. Sorry, but when one releases such mix of pics not in top North - it looks fishy.
So far, I don't believe B2 had entered Iranian air space. These 3 sites may have been attacked from B2 using cruise missiles. There is absolutely no reason for Iran to belief assurances by the US in terms of limited strikes. I remain skeptical on these back door agreements.
The B2 is really emblematic of America’s problems. Too risky and expensive to risk against a peer or near peer opponent, so they’re stuck using them for very expensive bangs.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Iranians could take it out with one of their older s300 systems, but what then? Risk a full scale war with America?
No wonder the Iranians preferred to take it on the chin.
I just liked the flow of the composition. Most authors try to sound too important by choosing complicated words, but your choices are refreshing to my bones.
Based on this alone, I would read every word of any long form article you publish, knowing that it's coherent.
Comparing this account of events (with respect to the strikes on Iran) to some explanation by one of the readers of Larry Johnson, which offered a religious explanation to Iran's restraint, I believe yours triumphs.
Odlichna Analiza text predivan patak ko vino a fakti na mestu.
"Dear Mike, as always, your in-depth analysis of technique, tactics, and changes is outstanding. In a real war, it's hard to distinguish through the fog of propaganda, but your insights are truly welcome for those of us who are not well-informed."
The amount of published original theoretical work, cutting edge algorithms and innovative application patents coming out of several Asian countries with comparable (or rather larger!) populations than USA renders the old cold war standard PR meme about how those evil Rooskies and insidious yeller slant eyed Chicoms are always just "stealing" US tech so they can never "catch up" very passe.
Two years ago US fly several B2 over Bosnia sky as demonstration of power. They fly pretty low. Thank god nobody from Bosnians did not try from they backyard how B2 can handle “igla” or “strela”… :D
Odlican clanak, Mike. Jedan od tvojih najboljih, i sigurno najbolji o americkom napadu na iranski nuklearni program na Substacku. Nisam manje ni očekivao. Pozdrav Aleksu i obitelji.
What evidence is there to confirm that IAF F-35s, or any other manned aircraft, entered Iranian airspace to any depth beyond it's borders? Any drop tanks or boost stages to be found in Iran as opposed to Iraq?
Excellent article, though I remain unconvinced that any B-2s actually delivered GBU-57s during that strike at all, nor that “israel” had anything near the level of air dominance it so loves to boast of.
dear god, Mike, you've outdone yourself. There's nowhere else on the internet where you can find this depth and breadth of analysis drafted in a format a layperson can understand. Bravo.
He consistantly knocks it outs the park!
Thanks for your great work Mike!
We've shared the link on our daily report.
A Skeptic War Reports
https://askeptic.substack.com/
Hi Mike, thanks, finally an overall approach how that war could have looked like. Much appreciated. The rugged territory of Iran is difficult for AD, as approaching aircraft can hug the valleys of Northern Zagros (coming from Iraq and/or Azerbaijan) and thus remain invisible for Iranian RADAR. No difference whether F15, F16 or F35. Except if these valleys are individually defended by SHORAD based on acoustic and visual recognition.
Iran has clear skies in mid June. And a large population equipped with smartphones. How comes, not a single picture emerged showing Israel's planes in Iranian skies? Either flying only at night, at greater altitudes [even than, videos with a dot in the sky and the typical acoustic pattern would have emerged] or didn't fly at all. Leaving the damage for standoff weapons and local cells with Spike and drones.
When it comes to "Fordo" [would be time to stop using this name as Fordo (فردو) is a village South of Qom, whereas the enterprise in question is located North of Qom, near Safarabad] within a black hill range - obviously volcanic basalt] the only evidence given are "satellite" pictures. Sun shows these pictures being taken in early morning ~6 AM local time. That would be possible if a satellite was in position, another 2 hours later the image was processed and released in a strange mix of orientations [top North, W, E, S]. Hard working people. As with many "satellite" pictures in both ongoing wars, they don't show reality but a scripted story. Rather often obviously enhanced with photoshop [BDA edition]. Sorry, but when one releases such mix of pics not in top North - it looks fishy.
So far, I don't believe B2 had entered Iranian air space. These 3 sites may have been attacked from B2 using cruise missiles. There is absolutely no reason for Iran to belief assurances by the US in terms of limited strikes. I remain skeptical on these back door agreements.
The B2 is really emblematic of America’s problems. Too risky and expensive to risk against a peer or near peer opponent, so they’re stuck using them for very expensive bangs.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Iranians could take it out with one of their older s300 systems, but what then? Risk a full scale war with America?
No wonder the Iranians preferred to take it on the chin.
Nice read the depth . Hard to imagine keeping an element of stealth with the intense support required for a mission as you say .
It’s no casual affair this War on Iran .
No such thing as “stealth” with Mike around.
I just liked the flow of the composition. Most authors try to sound too important by choosing complicated words, but your choices are refreshing to my bones.
Based on this alone, I would read every word of any long form article you publish, knowing that it's coherent.
Comparing this account of events (with respect to the strikes on Iran) to some explanation by one of the readers of Larry Johnson, which offered a religious explanation to Iran's restraint, I believe yours triumphs.
Thanks for your elaborate and smooth article.
Thank you
Astonishing article.. well done
Mike, I read nothing on Substack that is more fascinating or insightful than your posts. Thank you very much for the amazing work you produce!
Odlichna Analiza text predivan patak ko vino a fakti na mestu.
"Dear Mike, as always, your in-depth analysis of technique, tactics, and changes is outstanding. In a real war, it's hard to distinguish through the fog of propaganda, but your insights are truly welcome for those of us who are not well-informed."
Uvek je dobrodošao naš jezik ovde 😁👍
Quite amusing in view of the constant spiteful American accusations that Russians and Chinese are always "stealing" US "know-how" and technology.
@Tom Welsh
The amount of published original theoretical work, cutting edge algorithms and innovative application patents coming out of several Asian countries with comparable (or rather larger!) populations than USA renders the old cold war standard PR meme about how those evil Rooskies and insidious yeller slant eyed Chicoms are always just "stealing" US tech so they can never "catch up" very passe.
and German
My dear father, was a pilot in the era of the 1960’s. Air Force. Thank you for this excellent, informative article 💙🇷🇺❤️🐈⬛
Two years ago US fly several B2 over Bosnia sky as demonstration of power. They fly pretty low. Thank god nobody from Bosnians did not try from they backyard how B2 can handle “igla” or “strela”… :D
Odlican clanak, Mike. Jedan od tvojih najboljih, i sigurno najbolji o americkom napadu na iranski nuklearni program na Substacku. Nisam manje ni očekivao. Pozdrav Aleksu i obitelji.
Thank you for pointing out that “stealth” doesn’t mean “invisible” but “harder to spot in some radar bands, from certain angles”.
I’m sure both Russia and China got a very good look at the B2’s radar signature. Especially since China had a spy ship near Iran.
I’m sure that data will come in quite handy some day.
What evidence is there to confirm that IAF F-35s, or any other manned aircraft, entered Iranian airspace to any depth beyond it's borders? Any drop tanks or boost stages to be found in Iran as opposed to Iraq?
Nope, lol. They found lots over Syria though.
Excellent article, though I remain unconvinced that any B-2s actually delivered GBU-57s during that strike at all, nor that “israel” had anything near the level of air dominance it so loves to boast of.