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treehill's avatar

dear god, Mike, you've outdone yourself. There's nowhere else on the internet where you can find this depth and breadth of analysis drafted in a format a layperson can understand. Bravo.

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BG13's avatar

Hi Mike, thanks, finally an overall approach how that war could have looked like. Much appreciated. The rugged territory of Iran is difficult for AD, as approaching aircraft can hug the valleys of Northern Zagros (coming from Iraq and/or Azerbaijan) and thus remain invisible for Iranian RADAR. No difference whether F15, F16 or F35. Except if these valleys are individually defended by SHORAD based on acoustic and visual recognition.

Iran has clear skies in mid June. And a large population equipped with smartphones. How comes, not a single picture emerged showing Israel's planes in Iranian skies? Either flying only at night, at greater altitudes [even than, videos with a dot in the sky and the typical acoustic pattern would have emerged] or didn't fly at all. Leaving the damage for standoff weapons and local cells with Spike and drones.

When it comes to "Fordo" [would be time to stop using this name as Fordo (فردو) is a village South of Qom, whereas the enterprise in question is located North of Qom, near Safarabad] within a black hill range - obviously volcanic basalt] the only evidence given are "satellite" pictures. Sun shows these pictures being taken in early morning ~6 AM local time. That would be possible if a satellite was in position, another 2 hours later the image was processed and released in a strange mix of orientations [top North, W, E, S]. Hard working people. As with many "satellite" pictures in both ongoing wars, they don't show reality but a scripted story. Rather often obviously enhanced with photoshop [BDA edition]. Sorry, but when one releases such mix of pics not in top North - it looks fishy.

So far, I don't believe B2 had entered Iranian air space. These 3 sites may have been attacked from B2 using cruise missiles. There is absolutely no reason for Iran to belief assurances by the US in terms of limited strikes. I remain skeptical on these back door agreements.

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