Chickens in the Middle East [i]

How dare you?

Introduction

Things are developing rapidly, especially in the Middle East. We are witnessing events I wouldn’t even think of several years ago. Naturally, such events trigger fears within people. Even though the situation is not yet critical from a global perspective, it is indeed critical for the people and foreign military assets of and in the Middle East.

The main actor in the region, Iran, is driving the expulsion of foreign forces out of the Middle East, and is accelerating its efforts. On the other hand, the Western forces in the region are trying to calm things down to keep a grip on the Middle East. This leads to a big game of “Chicken” in the Middle East. Who will be the Chicken? Let’s explore that.

Resources

I have already written extensively about the situation in the Middle East. Nothing has changed in my assessment, so this article will continue where the previous one ended. For a better understanding of my “Middle East” framework, I recommend you read my previous articles:

• Possible chain of events

• Assessment of the Situation in the Middle East

Axis of Resistance

In my previous articles, I described in detail how Iran has triggered the resistance plan of the Quds Forces. A plan that was developed mainly by the assassinated Iranian IRGC General, Qasem Soleimani. Actually, he was the commander of the Quds Forces.

Iran controls the Axis of Resistance. Iran and its Quds Forces control the whole operation. But how does that work? Let’s go into a little more detail to avoid confusion.

What are the Quds Forces? Well, I sometimes compare them with the Wagner group. This is not entirely valid since the Wagner fighters are mercenaries and paid for what they do as non-state actors. But here is why I compare them:

1. They have a highly specialized core for operations planning, execution, and control (Layer 1).

2. They have highly motivated Special Forces trained in open and direct warfare, and covert operations behind enemy lines. Not only on the battlefield, but also disguised as civilians deployed across the Middle East and even in some North African countries. Their purpose is to influence politics in other Muslim countries and to organize the so-called “Axis of Resistance.”

   This is an informal alliance among various (details are unknown) organizations, countries, companies, militias, etc. across the Middle East, with one single purpose. To free the Middle East of foreign occupiers. It is anyone’s guess who is classified as “foreign occupiers” besides the Western forces.

   When we say that Iran controls XYZ, it does not mean that Iran can give orders to XYZ. The Iranian Quds forces supplied, trained, and prepared the regional players for what was to come. I don’t know for certain since details are classified, but from what I can gather, it goes like this: Iran provides political power, money, economic advantages, weapons, training, and strategy to the regional powers when they agree to join the “Axis of Resistance.” This incorporates not only state actors, but also non-state actors like militias, companies, and so on (Layer 2).

   The point about Layer 2 is the following, and this is crucial: As soon as the Quds plan has been activated there is no turning back. The Rubicon has been crossed. All disguised Quds operators across the Middle East act to help coordinate the moves. And since they have done this, they are visible to the Mossad. There is no turning back. The end of what just started will be a free Middle East (from an Iranian perspective), or no Middle East. Keep this in mind for what we learn later.

3. Layer 3 consists of all allied and affiliated forces across the Middle East that are committed to the common goal of freeing the Muslim world from occupation. Here we can indeed find even “enemies” of Iran. It is absolutely possible that former enemies on the battlefield can be part of this informal alliance.

   However, we can find organizations like Hamas and Hezbollah here or “state actors” like the Houthis. But also many more organizations and entire nations, like Syria and Iraq.

Layers 1 and 2 are like the former Wagner organization at its zenith.

Maybe now it is a little clearer what I mean when I write about Iran controlling XYZ. It is an informal alliance set up to achieve a common higher goal. Organized, financed, and equipped by Iran.

Recent attacks on Al-Tanf

Israel’s “war” against Hamas (i.e., the Palestinian people) is the fire accelerator for the whole operation. I will explain more about that particular battlefield later.

But as long as the events in Gaza are continuing, attacks against Israeli and US Forces across the Middle East will increase by the day. First, there were only “brain injuries”; now we have three dead US soldiers. This is the beginning, and it will only worsen by the day.

Usually, Americans or Israelis retaliate hard in such events. Now they are running out of options. We will learn more later.

Now, let’s focus on the recent attack on the American base in Syria. Syria? The US Government is insisting that these three Americans were killed in a base in Jordan close to the Syrian border. In a camp called Tower 22… Bullshit. These troops were killed and injured in Syria in the illegal occupation base in Al-Tanf. Here, “resistance fighters” (this is what Al-Qaida is called nowadays) are being trained to fight “against Assad.” Meaning: Conducting Terror attacks against Syrians and Iranian IRGC officers within Syria.

Now, why does Washington insist that the attack (Drone? Missile? We will never know!) by the resistance axis has been conducted on the base in Jordan and not in Al-Tanf in Syria? That is very simple. The Americans have no business in Syria. From an international law perspective, they are sitting ducks there, free to shoot—legally. They are occupying another country to “protect” (steal) its oil and to “free” (kill) Syrians. Whatever happens to them is legal from the perspective of international law.

I want to highlight here that even though I’m referring to “the Americans”, I know that these soldiers are sent there illegally, and the whole blame is on the Western Oligarchs. I see that Americans are waking up to this fact.

If the Axis of Resistance had attacked the American base in Jordan, we would have faced a completely different situation. Americans are legally there. On the permission of the government of Jordan. Attacking them there would be an act of war and would justify… a lot.

This is why they are trying hard to shift the scene to Jordan to use this as a justification in case they decide to retaliate against a state actor (Iran/Iraq). I think Jordan is unhappy about that, and Jordan has already denied these rumors.

American reaction

After hinting for days that they will announce the annunciation to do something maybe, President (???) Biden announced that he doesn’t want to escalate in the Middle East. Okay…

We will talk about that.

But before that, let’s review the following: There are reports from Iran that the Americans tried hard through the Swiss Embassy in Tehran to convince the Iranians to let them hit some empty building in Iran and not to retaliate. To save face… Wow. Several years ago, when General Soleimani was assassinated, it was the other way around. The Iranians did something similar and blew up some empty barracks (pre-warned) in the Al-Assad base in Iraq, with plenty of “Brain Injured” soldiers resulting from that attack.

Moreover, the Americans are trying to convince regional actors to stop the attacks against them, and MAYBE, as a reward, the Americans will eventually withdraw from the region. It's the typical Western game. Lying to achieve some break to regroup, to betray everyone who bought in. No regional player will buy into that any longer. I assume the attacks will not only not stop, but will increase and be more severe by the day.

Iran refused. All the militias refused.

I would like to ask you now to understand the following: It is not what I want or my opinion; it is the ice-cold reality: On October 7^th, a war was started by the Axis of Resistance. It was started against both Israel and the Western occupation of the Middle East. As stated above, it will not end before all occupation forces are out of the Middle East, the Two State Solution has been implemented in Israel, or all people in the Middle East are dead…period.

I have no emotions here; I’m not invested in the region. This is a logical assessment of what is currently happening in the region. It is not going to stop until one of the scenarios is implemented.

Chickens in Washington

As many commentators correctly say, in Washington, there are plenty of “nice” people who are raging and trying to do what they can to convince the real decision-makers to attack Iran. We know the names of the neo-cons. Fortunately, they have nothing to say about preserving the higher interests of the Western oligarchs.

I personally do not expect that there will be an attack on Iran anytime soon. This is no new assessment after the debacle with the Swiss Embassy in Tehran. Go through my former articles and you will see that I do not see an attack on Iran as likely.

Thank God, by the way. An attack on Iran would claim approximately one or two million lives across the Middle East, tens of thousands of American lives, and it would be likely that there would be no “Two-State” solution any longer; but rather a “One-State” solution without Israel in the equation…

Not to mention the consequences for the Western economic system. Without deliveries of Oil from the region for a very long time.

Sir Isaac Newton

Why is that so? Because of physics. You can’t fight physics.

Well… Let’s use a little Irony in a sad topic here:

The fourth law of motion of Sir Isaac Newton says:

“If you attack the Iranian soil directly, all your forces, those neither hardened nor dispersed nor protected across the Middle East will test the accuracy of Iranian missiles. Be it your bases, your ships, your airfields, or Israeli civil and military infrastructure. You will lose approx. 20,000 troops in the first two weeks.”

And this would only be the beginning.

We know that the retaliation would hit hundreds of thousands of civilians across the Middle East. But the Axis of Resistance is not sparkling on the radar. It is everywhere. You can’t fight that. You can only do as much damage to the region as possible until you are forced to evacuate, just like in Vietnam.

To be clear, I neither want that nor think it will happen. I think that we might see an American withdrawal from the region within a year or two, without a war against Iran.

Of course, I know that I could be fatally wrong, but that is what I believe for the time being.

Suppose I’m wrong and a large-scale war with Iran starts. In that case, God help the people of the Middle East and the American families who might experience something similar to what Ukrainian families are experiencing now.

Israel

Unfortunately, Israel’s prime minister condemned his country to strategic defeat. I acknowledge that Iran, with Chinese help and Russia’s approval, showed a red cloth to the Israeli raging Bull (Netanyahu). And this bull made a fatal but entirely predictable error and charged right into this red cloth—right into Gaza. This was a fatal mistake! And it can’t be reversed. This genie can’t be put back into the bottle.

Israel has lost a significant number of human lives in northern Gaza, as well as numerous military assets. Israel is not a big country, and its armed forces are not as big as many think. The tank forces have been seriously degraded.

Israel’s next goal would be to conquer southern Gaza. From a military perspective, the logical move would be to cut it off from the Egyptian border. And yes, Hamas withdrew to southern Gaza and would commit to a last stand there. But then… Israel began to withdraw from several places in Gaza. It withdrew significant brigades to reposition them to the Lebanon borders. Why?

It doesn’t make sense. Israel had a chance, by suffering serious losses, to conquer Gaza, but at the last minute, it stopped and began to withdraw. That’s not what Netanyahu would do.

I want to offer an opinion. I can’t verify it, but I assume that Netanyahu received credible intelligence, perhaps from the Americans or others, that Hezbollah is ready to enter Israel from the north as soon as the Israelis are fully committed to the battle for Southern Gaza. Which essentially would deal a death blow to Israel.

Now, we must understand that Israel does not have the forces left to attack Hezbollah in Lebanon. It has already lost significant armored resources; it has no experience in peer-to-peer combat. And it is far too small. Hezbollah is battle-hardened, as it learned through its ground operations in assaulting occupied Syrian cities. They are well-equipped, organized, and trained. Moreover, they have the modern missiles needed to decapitate Israel’s infrastructure and airfields within days.

Frankly, I think this is a very tense situation. I don’t know whether Israel will invade Lebanon. Israel is physically not able to do that but still, Netanyahu could decide to do it out of desperation. If this order follows, it will be the end of the Israeli state as we know it today. I want to stress that I firmly believe that Hezbollah would not engage in any war crimes against the Israeli people (I have no idea how they would react to the “settlers”). This whole operation is an Iranian/Chinese/Russian operation, and I’m firmly convinced that Russia’s support for this operation was given in exchange for guarantees that the goal is a two-state solution, as required by the UN SC Resolution 262. And guarantees that civilians will remain unharmed.

Honestly, I don’t think that there is any way out of this situation without a strategic Israeli defeat and surrender. And this is Netanyahu’s sole responsibility. He betrayed his country and his people by doing what he did.

Still, there is hope for a peaceful solution. As far as I can see, intense backchannel negotiations are taking place between China, Russia, and the regional powers to reach an agreement to transition peacefully to a two-state solution. Nevertheless, we have not yet reached the degree of Israeli defeat that would require Israel to agree. It is like Ukraine. Ukraine has also already lost, but a lot more defeat is needed before it eventually surrenders unconditionally.

As always, I must highlight here that what I have written does not represent my opinions/wishes, etc. It is a dry analysis of the situation in the region, which is tragic and disastrous. First and foremost, for the situation of the Palestinian people!

Storm

I want to conclude this article by reiterating that the storm has begun. And there is no way to stop it until it is concluded one way or the other. What we see will only worsen until it is hopefully resolved in a peaceful, better situation than today.

---

[i] Edited by Piquet (EditPiquet@gmail.com)