56 Comments
Feb 2Edited

I agree fully with your mistrust of US claiming to negotiate withdrawal from Iraq. And yet the Iraqi Kata'ib Hezbollah, who began to tighten the noose on US bases in Iraq, yesterday announced they would "pause" their campaign, ostensibly to allow the national government to proceed with negotiating a withdrawal timeline.

Regarding Israel, the obvious question to ask is will Netanyahu try to rope the US into a conflict with Lebanon, since one with Iran isn't looking realistic?

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I think the answer to that question is yes, but I don't think that the invasion of Lebanon is that realistic either.

Israel has its hands full at the moment as the economy goes into a tailspin and none of its stated goals in Gaza seem any closer to achievement.

In the game of chicken in the Middle -East some of the chooks seem to be headless. It will get worse before it gets better.

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Biden may not be in control but still has the opportunity to control moments. I worry that diddering and doddering man would do something foolish in an attempt to fix his ego after its been dented by those calling him a coward. Alternatively, he could get scared and pull everyone out, and try make it look like he was The Dude who focused on the USA.

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Bye-den doesn’t even know what flavor ice cream he just had. He’s a nobody. His handlers are the ones running things and making decisions. Sullivan, Nuland. Blinken, etc. They are like the Ukrainian gov. Every decision they make is wrong and things just keep getting worse for everyone.

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Obama has his drone-command center in Washington. Obama has been running "Joe Biden", but there is less, and less, and less left to run...

Harris has too many crossed wires and short circuits to be operable, except in silence and invisibility.

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Exactly why I worry he drops tabasco on his vanilla cone. But if the USA attacks Iraqi and Syrian targets, we'll know his handlers are winning the ice-cream war.

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OMG haha :)) Please don't give him tabasco 😭

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The word is out

Call the bully's bluff

He ain't got shit!

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He could pretend he has a Russian flamethrower...

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The analysis is very dry and solid, but as I live far below the big players, I remain intensely sad and opinionated.

I still can't accept(?) Russia's legalistic fixation on the two states. Just as I strongly doubt the ability of rabid "settlers" and other indoctrinated Israelis to live in peace alongside their former "slaves".

Which civilians will remain unharmed? The murderers?

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"To my friends, I give everything, to my enemies, I give the law."

From my perspective, the legalistic fixation on law that Russia has IS a power play in itself, as they know that "collaring" the US within the bounds of international law would be a severe blow to the US ability to operate unilaterally and exceptionally.

IF the Israel project becomes subject to international meddling and enforcement, it would not only cripple a major center of US power projection in the middle east, but start a cascade of UN second guessing every other US neocolonial project now and in the future.

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I understand that Russia wants to bind the United States within the bounds of international law. I agree, it's necessary.

If there is to be any second guessing, it should begin with the UN Resolution 181 (1947) that formalized the British/Zionist colonial theft of the territory from the Palestinians.

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Russia hasn't being acting directly. It sends one chess piece to the media, whilst the rest are scattered in other countries. The USA acts with ego, Russia acts with masks.

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Agreed. That's the fly in the aspic, but of course Aleks is not equating a two-state solution to everyone walking happily off into the sunset. The two-state solution will be just the beginning of a whole new set of problems.

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A particular possible issue that's stood out to me with how Russia and China have seemed to be trying to deal with the situation is that both have on several occasions stated or implied that the Palestinian Authority should/can be expected to play a central role in an eventual two state solution. But for most Palestinians the PA is basically a contracted and bought off security force for Israel. I reckon I should assume that if I'm aware of this then obviously Russia and China are too, but I don't know how to suss out whether or how seriously they might be considering this as a serious impediment in any future peace process.

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"I still can't accept(?) Russia's legalistic fixation on the two states"

It's hard to accept for sure, but this stance was explained by someone recently; Russia, China, et al publicly mention the Two State Solution as it is a UN resolution, thus the legal option. As those nations are legalistic they have no choice.

Facts on the ground will dilute that unworkable solution and all will move to the one (Palestinian) state.

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I have a small dispute with the fourth law of motion. “Invading Russia or China ends with defeat or assimilation, respectively” might have seniority in that regard.

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Right :)

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The Axis of Resistance is present throughout the Middle East.

As Aaron Maté explains:

These groups’ decision to strike US forces in response to the Gaza genocide follows a well-entrenched pattern of resisting joint US-Israeli aggression, or what the Journal describes as efforts to “push back against American and Israeli influence” in the Middle East. And contrary to US claims that Iran’s main regional allies – Hezbollah in Lebanon, Ansar Allah in Yemen (the Houthis), the PMU in Iraq, Hamas/Islamic Jihad in Palestine, and the Syrian government -- are all mere Iranian “proxies”, these groups “have domestic agendas of their own and operate with some measure of autonomy,” the Journal notes. US intelligence analyst Brian Katz concurs. Iran’s allies “are no longer simply Iranian proxies,” Katz writes. “Rather, they have become a collection of ideologically aligned, militarily interdependent, mature political-military actors committed to mutual defence.”

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Interesting timing: China brought the Middle East together and persuaded their Intelligence heads to swap secrets. A few weeks later, Palestine launched its jailbreak.

Israel, a Western proxy created by the slimy Lord Balfour and funded by the USA, is facing Ukraine, the Western proxy created by Britain and, yes, funded by the USA.

There's a funny side to this, but let us not gloat in anticipation.

Britain and US have now run out of proxies, money, and credibility.

The nightmare is ending.

And China has a plan.

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Yes.

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Feb 4Edited

I liked your article and appreciate your perspective, though I have my own variations to the theme.

Iran is not acting alone, but with Russia, China Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and other BRICS, SCO, Arab and Muslim nations, central asian stans.

Al Quds is not running everything to do with the freelance Axis of Resistance, far from it. More like al queda decades ago, they trained facilitated and supplied separate groups who then act independently and occasionally in combination but communications between groups opens them up for interdiction so that is rare. As per Nasrallah statements post Oct 7th they do not know what each other is doing, and they are NOT being directed by Iran but acting "rationally" as per a predetermined jointly shared goal and plan of bringing down Israel and getting the US/UK Nato permanently out of the middle east and africa, and central asia.

I agree the various non-State Militia groups are working like Wagner as defacto Special Forces strike units in support of the larger state sanctioned objectives. But they are NOT being specifically directed by Iran or anyone else. Where capability meets opportunity. The al aqsa events leading up to Oct 7 were a trigger for Hamas and the other Palestinian militias ..... all that has happened since by other actors has been their own decisions based on their capability and opportunity to support the overall long term group GOAL in the now.

Behind the scenes there is much geopolitical ordination example from South Africa's ICJ genocide charges, to who does what at the UNSC, what Israel-Gaza etc statements are made publicly, by who and when, individual States and their proxies ensure supplies and intel to the "axis of resistance" groups they are deemed responsible for at arms length - but this is ad hoc activity, untraceable. All the way to who does what nation state wise regarding the Red Sea shipping/reaction forces and how to ensure the Houthis have what is needed.

All eyes are on what the US and Israel does not what they say. Naturally geopolitical coordination drives any negotiations thru qatar and egypt with israel, and with Turkey too.

imo Turkey (with close Saudi/Iranian backing) may end up being a surprise game changing moment militarily to build the islamic multinational military coalition around to actually blockade Israel and then invade it by force from four directions simultaneously.... obvious with practical and material intel CW military backing from Russia and China naval, aeropsace and air power. With the likes of Pakistan and India in the wings with additional nuclear defense postures.

Everything is far from what it seems. This is a big play, with support from all over the world's global south nations, this not nothing. They have all had enough of the west and Israel and all it represents - imo. We'll see what comes.

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Yes. I don't put it past my country of South Africa having had its ICJ case indirectly funded. It's election year. But I'm realistic. By hook or by crook, I'll take the moral victories.

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Valuable article and site. Many thanks.

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I really appreciated that post to, and their writing generally.

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Thank you, your work, insights, and writing and are very much appreciated. Stay well.

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An excellent summary! Thank you.

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Danke;)

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The above is the only explanation I have seen that fits observed data.

Thanks.

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Thank you!

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This gave me a whole new point of view. I thought Israel wanted to finish with Gaza once for all and that Hamas attack was like USA 9/11. Somehow I find it hard to believe that Israel didn't know about attack, what about Mossad?

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9/11 was also known and planned, "an inside job".

Pearl Harbor was arranged, known and managed in real time by FDR. He got all the aircraft carriers out 2 weeks before December 7 and all the modern ships out on November 30, then waited for the Japanese attack. He was monitoring their radio communications and being advised of their advance by the Dutch Empire. The US was already secretly at war with Japan by a treaty with the Dutch before the Japanese attack.

The McCollum Memo October 7, 1940:

https://whatreallyhappened.com/WRHARTICLES/McCollum/index.html

The McCollum memo, also known as the Eight Action Memo, was a memorandum, dated October 7, 1940, sent by Lieutenant Commander Arthur H. McCollum[1][unreliable source?] in his capacity as director of the Office of Naval Intelligence's Far East Asia section. It was sent to Navy Captains Dudley Knox, who agreed with the actions described within the memo, and Walter Stratton Anderson.

The memo outlined the general situation of several nations in World War II and recommended an eight-part course of action for the United States to take in regard to the Japanese Empire in the South Pacific, suggesting the United States undertake a series of actions "that would serve as an effective check against Japanese encroachments in South-eastern Asia." The document also calls for war with Japan as an ideal solution to contain it, but acknowledges that "It is not believed that in the present state of political opinion the United States government is capable of declaring war against Japan without more ado."

The McCollum memo was first widely disseminated with the publication of Robert Stinnett's book Day of Deceit: The Truth About FDR and Pearl Harbor.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McCollum_memo

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They knew alright and let it happen on purpose.

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Princess Nuland just stated (in Kiev) that Amerika (hers/its) is not leaving Syria. Guess what happens now?

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"tens of thousands of American lives, and it would be likely that there would be no “Two-State” solution any longer; but rather a “One-State” solution without Israel in the equation…"

Both of these are good. However the Two State solution is a fairy tale and has never been a viable option. The ashkeNAZI will never accept Goyim as equals.

A one state called Palestine as it was for millenia is the only option. Innocent jews can stay, the guilty can be tried and executed.

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Thank you for your contribution to this blog. However, I kindly ask that you moderate your comments more carefully. I cannot condone calls for violence or harm against civilians on this platform. (Currently, there are no laws that would legally permit the actions you've advocated for.)

I will allow your comment to remain online this time, but moving forward, I will have to remove any comments of this nature.

Please understand this is not a personal matter.

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Yep, however I wasn't referring to violence or harm against civilians. I was referring to Israhelli politicians, police, IOF, military courts, etc, that have committed crimes against Palestinians.

As Nasrallah said in a speech a few years back, the innocent will be allowed to stay in a Palestinian state if they wish.

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grr, you only get reactions like this because as everyone knows, Aleks included I imagine, Israeli Zionist 'civilians' are all guilty as sin for Genocide and other major crimes against humanity perpetrated by their Govts their IDF and themsleves (as Reservists) and who collectively have fully supported and voted for such actions against Palestinians since long before 1948 to today!

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Yep, I'd hate to be tasked with making the case that there are innocent (adult) Israhellis. Just passively residing on stolen land, and doing nothing else, makes one a participant in the crime.

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At some stage during final negotiation a reconciliation process will be included which is gonna limit trials to those of leaders among the politicians, judiciary & military forces. Otherwise civilian squatters will be lured into a Masada style action possibly involving nuclear weapons. If civilian squatter/settlers are offered a credible alternative it is unlikely they or lower ranks of the military will agree to support a Masada mass suicide, just as most Jews didn't join the crazed zealots back in Roman times. Most of the rural population didn't join the 'exodus' either. They stayed behind, lived their lives and eventually centuries later took up Islam along with other Semitic tribes who lived in Palestine..

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The settlers are crazed, violent, theocratic lunatics, and armed now more than ever. They will never accept any compromise or alternatives to what hey believe is their destiny.

I can see them violently resisting which will result in their death.

And considering 95% are for the current genocide, murders, and massacres, I don't think there will be many "innocent" Israhellis that Nasrallah mentioned, staying there.

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Jordan has a good reason to suggest it was Tanf since it is caught between its alliance with the US and the sympathies of its pro Palestinian public.The US is flying F-22 sorties into Syria from Jordanian AF bases also. This attack on Tower 22 embarrasses Jordan. The notion that the Axis of Resistance was created and organized by Iran is a fiction created by the West. This axis is a grass roots thing -- and mostly Sunni. Quds is Shi'a. The axis spans Yemen (Hezbollah), Yemen (the Houthis), Iraq (various Shi'a groups), Syria (Sunnii),, Afghanistan,

and Gaza. Iran provides weapons, training, tactical support, rather than strategy. According to Nasrallah Iran had no foreknowledge of the Oct 7 attack although they trained and equipped, Hamas fighters. The attack itself was the brainchild of the new Hamas leadership.

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Hi Julian,

Thank you for your comment! They are always welcome.

I think we both acknowledge that we have slightly different views on the situation in the Middle East. And I believe this is good. It would be truly concerning if the "independent media" all ran the same story. It would be no different from the mainstream media (MSM) :-)

From personal experience, I can tell you that nobody ever reveals their battle plans and strategies in public. Doing so would be like handing over advantages to the enemy.

If XYZ denies that ABC happened, it means nothing in war. The same goes, by the way, for Russia. In war, the only thing that counts is winning, not disclosing plans and strategies at press conferences.

Nevertheless, you are, as always, doing fantastic work. Thank you, and hopefully, your issues with Stripe and Substack will be resolved soon.

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I must be missing something: the only thing I read everywhere (I am not talking about the garbage main stream media which I don’t follow) is the genocide of Palestinian people and nobody, neither Iran, China or Russia are doing anything. Only the Houthi’s are trying to stop the Holocaust. Israel will just continue bombing everybody and the US will leave as they always do: when they can arrange another war to keep the Anglo oligarchs getting richer. Two states? Israel is a creation of the Anglos with the help of the German Nazis, to keep power in West Asia. Zionists are occupying Palestine and the state of Israel should be dismantled and its people sent back to Europe, where they came from. Zionists are not Semitics, Palestinians are Semitics. Jews are not Zionists, they are the people that profess Judaism. And very few Jews remain that are Semitics. Therefore, there can’t be any historical rights for the existence of Israel. There can only be one state and it is Palestine. But sadly, nothing will change and in 10 years nobody will remember how four million people where killed (including the coming killings in the West Bank) in front of everybody through the social networks.

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