Ukraine and the Middle East – Part 2 [i]

Fast forward to the abyss

Introduction

Welcome to another major geopolitical update. This is the second of a two-part mini-series; the first part can be found here. The first part focuses on events in Ukraine, and this part focuses on the Middle East and the overall perspective.

Events are coming fast and furious and happening simultaneously worldwide—frightening. Panic is spreading throughout the blogging and independent media scene. I will try to bring some rationality to the topics and put things in perspective.

Middle East

Iran

I want to start the Middle East section by reiterating a claim many disagree with. The hostilities in the Middle East in general, and the Hamas raid into Israel in particular, are parts of an Iranian operation. This is a strategy that has been developed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) over more than a decade to checkmate Israel at an appropriate time. And since the USA is spread thin over the current battlefields of the Wars of Liberation, and the USA has been depleted in Ukraine, it undoubtedly has been the best moment to execute the “Al Quds” (Jerusalem) plan from an Iranian perspective.

Before I continue, I must express that I will keep the Middle East section (mostly) free of my opinions, except for one topic I will mention here. There is no justification whatsoever for the current massacre that the Israeli government is committing against tens of thousands of civilians and at least 10,000 children. This is criminal! Elsewhere in this section, if I express an opinion, I will clearly state that it is my opinion.

From a geographical perspective, Iran is crucial for the “Heartland” trade. It is about to become a significant trading hub for the multipolar world order, bypassing sea lanes controlled by the sea powers (the West). If overland routes can be established for robust trade, the sea routes will be less critical, and Iran will benefit from the greatly expanded trade lanes traversing its borders. To help Iran become this significant trade hub, Russia, China, and India have invested billions in infrastructure in Iran. Not only has there been monetary investment, but Diplomatic investment as well. For example, look at the reconciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia and the accession of Iran into the SCO and BRICS.

This is why Iran became a strategic player for establishing the multipolar world order. A player that mustn’t be allowed to fail by the other major drivers of the multipolar world order. This is important to understand and keep in mind for further reading.

Now we have the situation that, from an Iranian perspective, the USA is as weak as it has been for at least a century militarily and depleted and stretched thin. Under such circumstances and because the USA CAN NOT engage with Iran currently, Iran took the opportunity and acted. I think it was at least greenlighted by Russia and supported by China.

Russia is not an enemy of Israel. There are a lot of Russians in Israel, and Russia has good ties to both Israel and these Russian (Soviet?) expats. Even though the relations between Russia and Israel cooled recently, mainly because of the diametrical interests of both parties in Syria and Ukraine, I would say Russia does not wish anything bad for Israel. Nevertheless, to weaken the Western support for Ukraine and further contribute to the overstretching of the United States, I assume that Russia could have greenlighted the Iranian actions against Israel.

China is solely interested in business and has no interest in regional disputes. However, since the Western oligarchs are using Israel to maintain the eternal war in the Middle East to control Oil prices and, thereby, the world economy, it became an obstacle for China that needed to be solved. Do not get me wrong, I don’t think Russia or China wishes Israel any misfortune (neither do I). But I assume that Russia and China want to bring peace to the region, enduring peace. Unfortunately, the government of Israel is opposed to regional peace, as we can see from current events.

I think, and this all is not my opinion but a dry analysis of what I think the parties involved are interested in, the multipolar world requires an Israeli government that is willing to implement UNSC resolution 242 (the Two-State Solution). Please don’t ask me what the perfect solution is; I have no idea. I just write what I analyze from the statements of different BRICS leaders, including President Putin. I think the BRICS leaders want to have a peaceful Israel, implementing the Two-State solution dictated by the UN resolution 242. This is also evident in the actions of South Africa — The “Genocide Case” of South Africa at the ICJ. It appears to be a coordinated action by all the BRICS players.

The Quds Plan triggered all events and is currently in full force with several escalation steps left to come. I will discuss this later.

What to do?

I’m aware that there are more than enough Western politicians and oligarchs who would want to start a war against Iran. Several years ago, the war might have already started. Only there is a little problem. It is physically impossible at present. If there were actual preparations for war, which is impossible due to stock depletion and concentration of the US Navy in Southeast Asia, we would see the withdrawal of US forces from within striking distance of the Iranian missile launchers (~1,000 miles).

The map below shows the approximate range of the regular Iranian ballistic missiles. In case of war, all American and presumably Israeli bases would be in danger. In the last decade, Iran has produced huge stores of various missiles. There won’t be shortages of Iranian missiles.

Again, if the US were to prepare for war against Iran, we would see a withdrawal of their most vulnerable assets in the region, the hardening of bases, the stationing of patriot systems and AD missiles at strategic points, and the buildup of the US-Navy in the vicinity of about 2,000km around Iran. This is the only chance for the US to inflict real damage on Iran. Attacking with the current force structure would lead to massive US and Israeli casualties, on the order of several thousand per week. This is entirely unacceptable to the US. Don’t get me wrong, the US is equipped with standoff weapons that could cause massive damage in Iran, and bombings across the Middle East would lead to a massive slaughter of Arabs and Persians. But as I see it, this is a sacrifice that Iran is willing to make to gain eventual freedom and independence (decolonization).

The bottom line is that there is no preparation for an attack on Iran; it does not comport with current US interests. Moreover, it is impossible with the current US force structure.

I’d say the possibility of an overt war between the US and Iran is about 15% because the situation is very tense and there are unreasonable players in the region. There is always the possibility of accidents or provocations by third parties, so the risk of war is low, but not zero. Similar to the situation in Ukraine between NATO and Russia.

See: Google Maps

Not only would missiles from Iran pose a threat. In short, all militias across Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon would join attacks against US and Israeli installations, including Hezbollah.

Recently, we experienced a demonstration, or let’s call it a “message,” from the Iranian side. On January 15, Iran attacked Erbil (Iraq) with ballistic missiles. As far as we know, a businessman with connections to Israel was targeted and killed. It is said that he regularly facilitated Oil trades with Israel.

I don’t see any signs of retaliation by the US. It was a message by Iran to show both the US and Israel that it is ready, willing, and able to hit targets in the Middle East.

The last point I wanted to mention in this section is that a war with tens of thousands of casualties during an election year is poison to the people in charge. But, I think that goes without explanation. *********************

War Logistics

Iran is a strategic player in the Middle East, and Russia and China have made strategic investments in Iran to support the multipolar world order. Therefore, they will not let Iran fall. But how would they assist Iran in case of an unlikely war?

I think that the BRICS states would not intervene militarily under any circumstances. Anything that risks a direct clash among the three superpowers will be avoided. They have responsibility for human kind and, like it or not, each player knows that a nuclear war is taboo. No matter how many psychopathic voices you hear out of each of these countries, no one will start anything that could risk nuclear war. Except for the abovementioned chain of incidents, of course (unfortunately).

But how can Russia and China help Iran? Through the supply of everything that is needed to inflict the greatest possible damage to the USA and drive its depletion further. I won’t review possible materiel that could be delivered, but the USA set all relevant precedents in Ukraine.

Russia could establish a supply route through the Caspian Sea. And China through Afghanistan. I think the Afghans would be happy to settle some scores.

Disadvantages of Attacking Iran

I’ll keep this section short.

We already discussed many of the military aspects that are disadvantageous for the Americans. In this section, I will briefly go over the other dimensions:

• Supply-chain disruptions for Europe for deliveries from Asia

• Oil Shortages in the West

• Domestic political problems in the West

• Election of “uncomfortable” political candidates for the West

• Loss of access to the Middle East

• Loss of control of Oil prices

• Catastrophe in Israel

• And many more…

You see… even though there might be bloodthirsty politicians across the West, they can’t fight reality and they know the facts. That is why I think an attack is unlikely.

Opportunities of Attacking Iran

As discussed before, Iran is a strategic player in creating the multipolar world order and in the “Heartland” trade.

A possible strategy of the West might be to take Iran out of the equation while accepting all of the aforementioned disadvantages to stop the development of the multipolar world order without directly engaging with another military superpower.

One could also say that this would be an attack on the weakest part of the strategic heartland players to break the chain. Since I have seen a lot of comments from Slavic politicians (e.g., Aleksander Lukashenko) that this year could be crucial due to actions of the West in the Middle East for world peace, I attach some credibility to such a scenario but not a lot. However, it is important to mention it here.

Who else to attack? Yemen!

The next provocation in the implementation of the Quds plan is from Yemen. Yemen continues to target ships in the Red Sea, particularly ships heading to Israel. This is another vector to overstretch the Western military forces across the Middle East; another chapter in the Wars of Liberation. The Houthis of Yemen are, of course, under the control of the Iranian Quds Forces. They say they aren’t? 😊 What else should they say? Think about it...

Yemen is a forward defensive line for Iran, packed with everything to make serious problems for Navies massing for an attack on Iran. In fact, they are provoking an attack on themselves to deplete their opponents’ missiles. Especially air-defense missiles. This is highly problematic (for their opponents). Why? An average US destroyer has about a hundred missile launch tubes. Historically, the US has bombed defenseless countries into the stone age. Hence, they could arm 80 to 90 percent of the tubes with ground-attack missiles, such as the Tomahawk. Maybe 10-20% of their missiles were air-defense and anti-missile missiles.

Yemen has a very serious missile capability. Cheap and easy to produce missiles and drones that can hit ships in its vicinity. Mike Mihajlovic explained this in detail here.

Now the equation has changed. The US Navy now needs to sail with (much) more than 50% air defense missiles, and rely heavily on fighter and bomber jets from their aircraft carriers. These air defense capabilities are quickly depleted with constant attacks, forcing the Carrier Strike Group to frequently withdraw for replenishment in a friendly port (Djibouti?).

The whole game is entirely a losing proposition for the West. Getting bogged down in Yemen is a disaster that the US truly doesn’t need, with ongoing Ukraine and Gaza conflicts, and ever more hot spots (Wars of Liberation) popping up elsewhere. And think about the elections in the US. There is nothing that could be bombed in Yemen. The country has been bombed for years by Saudi Arabia and its allies. There is truly nothing that could be bombed, apart from the usual Western targets… civilians.

To stop the attacks on the Red Sea, the US would need to land in Yemen and take key positions with boots on the ground. Ask Saudi Arabia (with full US equipment and support), how this went. In fact, catastrophic. It was a big defeat for Saudi Arabia. And this is what would await any Western invaders.

Even though Iran will not intervene directly, to avoid war, it will escalate other hotspots within its area of influence. It will support Yemen in further overstretching the West. Hezbollah, anyone?

Another advantage for Russia, China, and Iran is, of course, that the US would need to divert massive satellite and ISR resources to the Middle East or to Yemen…and away from Ukraine and Gaza. This would undoubtedly weaken the US proxies further.

I want to be clear here. Just because I write about it does not mean I support or endorse it. Yemen and Gaza have suffered for decades from wars. Especially the civilians and the children. To sacrifice the poorest people of the world to achieve military collapse through overstretching of the US is unethical, and I, as a human being, am not in favor of it. Even though I understand it from a rational perspective, I do not support nor endorse it.

And one more thing. I know that I am one of the few (maybe the only one) who is putting it bluntly that this whole campaign is directed by Iran and, by extension, by BRICS. This is a highly unpopular view, and the mainstream media is reporting otherwise. Nevertheless, we are not ideologues here at BMA. I am a business professional, and I report things as I see them, not what would be favorable for me. Forget about the perception that the US and Europe are pure evil and Russia, China, and Iran are angels. That’s BS. The reality is somewhere in between. And, of course, the BRICS allies are using the methods mentioned above to get rid of the empire, even though that is highly unethical, to put it mildly. In contrast, the West has done this since the end of WW2, and killed dozens of millions of people, mainly civilians, worldwide.

Hence, I will always report things as I see them and not how people would like them to be. This, of course, does not mean that I am right. I just say, with all of my experience and knowledge, this is the most probable scenario from MY point of view.

Gaza

We all know what is going on in Gaza. I don’t think I need to go into details here.

What I want to say, apart from the odious massacre, is that Israel ran into a well-prepared trap. In fact, Israel lost already. Militarily? This is a probability for the new feature. I’m talking about geopolitics and economics. Israel turned the whole world against it, because of the well-placed media coverage within Gaza… It even has a genocide case at the ICJ against Israel. This is serious stuff. Nevertheless, this will not stop Israel. It will damage Israel politically and economically for decades.

Moreover, the military operation in Gaza cost Israel already a very large number of armored vehicles. Which are necessary for any ground operations. We can’t know the exact number since they are not communicated, but we can estimate that Israel is facing a serious depletion of its tank forces. And that was only for the capture of the northern part of Gaza. If Israel, as announced, proceeds to try to capture the Egyptian border region, we can be sure that Hamas will fight even harder because it is the area of the last resort.

Why doesn’t Hezbollah intervene? It looks like as if the defense of Gaza has been designed to bog down Israel and to deplete its ground forces. And this appears to be going well from a military perspective. But what about the humanitarian perspective? I don’t want to be cynical here. Thousands of civilians are dying for this, especially children. I hate reporting about this particular war.

Hezbollah

There are indications of a rapid escalation of the situation in the region. I reported about a possible escalation cycle in one of my previous analyses. And things are far from over. There is a high probability that Hezbollah could intervene shortly before the fall of Southern Gaza. Essentially, when Israel is far more depleted of men and machines… and Air Defenses. Hezbollah has a far bigger missile capability than Gaza, and it hasn’t even started yet.

An American intervention? Possibly, but in such a case, it is to be expected that the Houthis could/would escalate in the Red Sea against American assets. And other militias across Syria and Iraq would get involved. I am the last one who wishes harm to the Israeli state, but the government messed it up so badly that it is currently likely that it will sustain a strategic defeat within the next two years. Considering all the indicators on the ground, I would say the probability is about 70-80%. This is the Quds Plan I have studied (what was publicly available, of course) for quite a while now, long before the Ukrainian war.

The best thing would be if the Israeli people realized what was going on and voted for a government that would be willing to cooperate with its neighbors, respect international law… and implement UN Resolution 242. Unfortunately, such an outcome is improbable for the time being. It is impossible.

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[i] Edited by Piquet (EditPiquet@gmail.com)