You state: »I don’t think Russia or China wishes Israel any misfortune (neither do I)«. Could you please explain why it is that YOU do not wish that state »misfortune«? It is a child murdering one, as you wrote yourselve. And, it seems, there are many reports, the ruling zionist elite is fully supported by the citizens of that state. I, for my part, wish them every misfortune I can think of because of the genozid they are committing, the jokes they make about it as well as their whole murderous history in Palastine.
I think one should always look at the government instead of the people.
Look what Germany did in WW2.
According to what everyone is demanding today for Israel, what should have been done to the German state and the German people back in 1945? If you think this question through you will understand what I mean.
And it is good, that there has been no collective punishment back in 1945. It is always the wrong approach.
This is a very difficult discussion to which I can't add anything else.
I think that you are misjudging the relationship between Iran and its allies . They have their own agendas ; particularly the Houthies . This is more a case of broadly similar ideologies . Iran is not the leader of Shia Islam . The Senior clerics are Iraqi and are critical of the political system in Iran . There is also an ethnic angle ; Arab Shias are not going to run around after Iranians . Hamas is not an Iranian ally . They were fighting each other in Syria a few years ago . The relationship seems to be based on the old saying " My enemies enemy is my friend , for now at least ".
All these maneuvers, hidden or otherwise, would hardly be possible without agreements and alliances. The aim is legitimate: to finally curb the devastating ambition of an arrogant and murderous colonial power. To be sovereign. And to do business in peace.
Fair enough.
But for their sacrificial role in this power play, the Palestinians should be given back their land and a full-fledged state, not this two-state absolution of a 75-year-old colonialist theft followed by a genocidal occupation.
Good overview of the situation in the Middle East. I think the US Navy ships replenish their VLS in Bahrain, by transiting Hormuez twice; maybe Italy too. Either way, that is time away from being on station.
To quote Oliver Hardy, regarding the US' belligerence: "We'll, here's another fine mess you've gotten us into!"
You wish no harm to a state that is openly carrying out a genocide? Intentional genocide is not "messing up". A state very fully backed by the vast majority of Israeli citizens in that genocide? I understand the need not to be cancelled for stating certain things, but this stinks of moral laxity and even propaganda. Then you push the whole "Iran is the mastermind of everything" BS. You just fell a number of ranks in my estimation, very sad.
Even if we assume that the majority of the Israeli population supports what is being done in Gaza (which we realistically can't withb100npercent certainty) the majority can be easily misled, especially when basic fear is involved. Just look at the Ukraine. Many people in Ukraine are led to believe the West is their best friend and savior, and act accordingly. Many also believe that they can only be save if Russia is defeated and exterminated. The reality is very different of course. But when presented with the existential threat people are easily manipulated and are prone to think and act irrationally. Self-harming even. I spoke to a few people from Israel that I know personally. They are very afraid and all they want is the threat to go away. Little do they know who the real enemy is and what can really bring them lasting peace they want. In fact, their assumptions and actions might very well bring them exactly what they fear the most. Certainly Is the case for Ukraine. I truly hope there is still a choice for Israeli people.
They have no choice and that is self imposed. The ashkeNAZI are in this predicament due to their inhuman attitudes towards goyim. It is due to their perception of themselves as chosen and superior, we are cockroaches.
Zionism is a cancer and if it can't be cured the hosts must be killed off.
They are scum, their entire fake, contrived society is rotten to the core.
There is also outright brainwashing and the teaching of false ancient history in schools, paralleling very much the what the Ukrainian regime has done. You could say the same with respect to the Nazis and the German population of the time. Hard to separate the evil doers from the evil doer supporters from the general population. BUT the general Israeli population live in a country that they know only exists because of the theft of Palestinian lands and an ongoing apartheid regime, which they directly benefit from.
Brainwashing, yes. Which led to many people that had been born in Israel to believe it is their sole homeland they have the right to defend at any cost. And not many people KNOW per se the real history, unfortunately. There is no excuse for ignorance in this day and age, but the situation is nevertheless tragic.
I agree that it is impossible to regard the current behaviour of the Israelis in Gaza as some kind of aberration. On the contrary, it is entirely typical, and it therefore makes no sense to fail to extrapolate from it to a wider condemnation of the state. Plus it is ludicrous to argue that the Houthis are controlled by Iran in this situation. The Houthis are acting with complete agency, willed on by the passion and commitment of the Yemeni nation. The fact that their interests happen to coincide with those of the Iranians is another matter entirely; they would be acting, with or without them.
So every state that the US MIC provides weapons to is under US control, directed by some war room under the Pentagon? Please, back off from the conspiracy theories. Supplying arms to and controlling are two different things.
"So every state that the US MIC provides weapons to is under US control, directed by some war room under the Pentagon" A silly comparison. Apples Vs eggs.
Iran arms them. That alone doesn't mean that Iran controls them. However the Axis of Resistance is Solemeini 's baby. He set the tactics, the war room, and the strategies.
Without Iran Hezbollah, AnsarAllah would not be in a position to do much at all.
Do you really think that Iran gives them everything they need without having a say in how they are used? Iran, and rightfully so, sets the agenda.
The idea of a proxy which is generally banded around as an entity that is entirely controlled is too crude to apply to this situation - or nearly any, for that matter. If one goes back into the history of the region now called Ukraine, the tensions there predate the present crisis for many years. It would make more sense to say that the West took advantage of existing fault lines to create an active partner against the Russians, but those Ukrainians who have played their part cannot be denied their own motivations. A true proxy in the way that we understand it would be more like a mercenary - someone with no skin in the game at all that acts only for money. This might be true for a handful, but not for those impassioned Ukrainians covered in tattoos with their right arms slicing the air. A better description for them would be 'congenital fools'. As for the Houthis, naturally their interests coincide with Iran's, but one could say that about virtually every person in the region at the moment outside of Israel. It is hardly surprising. Is every Arab a proxy for the Persians? I think that might start a few fights if you tried to argue that in the streets of Tunis, Algiers, Cairo or Mecca. That's the kind of view one gets from squinting from a distance and blocking out any complicating detail. It is an insult to all parties in the region not to do better than that.
Your argued well, and thus I like it whilst still disagreeing. Nuance should be observed, but also who the most powerful partner in a relationship is e.g., the war in Ukraine would not exist if the USA had not been involved, and Israel is likely to have paused if the USA had leaned on it instead of speaking with forked tongue to MSM.
Can you define what you mean by proxy, and the limits of how you would use it as a concept? At one point is it acknowledged that the proxy has their own agency and that their interests merely coincide with the more powerful entity?
Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis have agency, they are not just pawns of Iran. Their aims may align with Iran, they may be allies but they make their own decisions. It is pure Western warmongering propaganda to say that Iran is behind everything done by these groups.
Iran has been the one most subject to external aggression nations, whether it be the 8 year Iraq war on Iran (fully supported by the West, including providing the ingredients for the poison gas attacks) 1980-88, the Western ongoing economic war and attempted subversions, and Israeli terrorism, plus the support of Kurdish terrorism.
Iran has had to work hard to maintain its sovereignty and counteract Israeli and US imperialism. Working with the Shia majority in Iraq (greatly aided by the US invasion), helping Syria to resist Western/Saudi/Qatari destabilization, helping Hezbollah to push back the Israeli invaders, and helping the Houthi resist Western/Saudi aggression. And now at last able to make peace with Saudi Arabia and others.
That's a fair point but it also sounds like a bit of an overreaction. I have read elsewhere that Solemeini was working on strategies and tactics that coordinated with other players willing to resist US-IS encroachment. That doesn't make other players 'pawns'. What I think is a fair conclusion - and which have not read anywhere else - is that this is a concerted pushback coordinated with BRICS which is ostensibly only a trading alliance with no military aspects or dreams of conquest but no doubt have a few deadly quivers in their arsenal, not just quills for inking Declarations. The main thing being that many nations in the region are overcoming their differences in order to outsmart a common enemy. Instead of 'divide and conquer' we are seeing 'together we stand'. It's a significant development.
It reads to me as if you agree with Roger - you are actually saying the same thing. All parties in the region have agency and have suffered from various forms of Western imperialism for well over a hundred years - and before that, Turkish imperialism. You are absolutely right that the parties are overcoming differences in order to work together. They key phrase there is 'overcoming differences'.
Look Iran's not responsible for every Hez/Houthi/etc. action as the U.S. claims, this I agree. But to say these groups have real agency, it's all in how you define the term. On limited military actions sure they may be at their own discretion, but anyone foolish enough to believe any of these groups would act without Iranian approval, much less against Iranian wishes, makes me wonder how you found this article in the first place. Ukraine has shown us how vital arm's sustainment is to anything high intensity.
You really think if Iran says, "or else we cut our support" any of these groups agency will still be present? You really think they'd do something on this scale without their main weapons supplier, military supporter including development and advisors I'm sure, at least giving the nod? Did Iran master plan the whole thing? I'm somewhat dubious. Was this some completely independent intiative on Yemen's part? While not impossible I'd say next to no chance. If it was, it was extremely ballsy, but also extremely foolhardy. Either way I admire the hell out of their grit, just wish this helped them in some way.
I give credit to Aleks because when he introduced the Quds theory 3 months ago, he was the first I read who stated that Israel wasn't going to stop. It's also plausible that Iran wouldn't want to be a lame duck. Connections are always suspicious, and who is more connected than Iran to Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis. Not definitive but entirely plausible, and undeserving of insult.
I see Israeli public reaction as the same as the USA's after 9/11 - abhorrent, deserving severe punishment, but not enough for me to hate all Americans.
There is a significant difference between present-day Israel and 9/11 America, sufficient to render that comparison suspect. Most Americans live in an almost complete ignorance of what is going on in the world, and therefore could be easily hoodwinked into a state of vengeful militancy after 9/11. Israel is a tiny place, where right from the beginning it would have been impossible not to be aware of the acute injustice and violence meted out to the Palestinians in order to allow the theocratic state of Israel to rise from the destruction of Palestine. All of the early settlers were at least complicit, and most bore full responsibility. In recent years the disparity has only worsened. In any case, nobody said anything about hating Israelis, so that is a red herring. One can condemn a state of mind and a behaviour, without hating a person. This has been a distinction made within Christianity for two thousand years.
You've read me before so you should note that I don't use red herrings.
Regards the USA, ignorance is not an excuse, and I would argue that selfishness, the Cult of Me Me and Me, is more damaging.
Where we're born has to count. If we had lived our whole lives where our grandparents had lived their whole lives, we'd likely want our country to exist. And most countries exist because of conquest.
Netanhayu is as much the devil as Idi Amin, MbS, Biden and Trump. All devils exist because people believe they exist. Yet not all people deserve to be damned.
Before you respond, take note of my position against what Israel's been doing, and my posts in support of Palestine. It's not necessary to always criticise those who don't hate Jews. Some Jews are fabulous, as are some in every creed no matter how much I disagree with the creed.
Again, you are talking about hating Jews. I don't hate Jews, and at no point have I said anything about hating Jews. I'm Jewish myself, or at least of Jewish origin. My best friend is Jewish. You are using a red herring if you persist in resorting to talk about hating Jews when a person is using arguments about the state of Israel.
I don't know if you're real yet I still responded to you seriously, here and on my page before. Now you're gaslighting me because I was speaking against generalisation, not for it.
I'm against what's happening to Palestine and have written against it. This is not the first time I've noticed that people theoretically on the same side are 'challenged' for not being 100% hardcore without minds of their own. I fear that bigotry underlies that.
There's a lot of that on Substack. It started with the war in Ukraine, and multiplied with Gaza. It's counterproductive., and it messes up the comment section, distracting from the message of the article. I don't want to be disrespectful by doing the latter.
Now you're gaslighting me by implying that my pushing back on this is somehow disrespectful to the author of the blog. I'm merely saying something very simple - never, ever should dislike of the state of Israel be seen as synonymous with hating Jews. That's the kind of argument used to shut down debate in the West, and it is not appropriate for an intelligent person to deploy. As for whether I am real or not, I would like to know which point I have raised that could be in any way interpreted as in alignment with 77th Brigade propaganda..! Quite the opposite.. Everything I have said would see me excluded from British establishment circles.
I don't know if you've ever been to Israel or know anyone who has.
I know having grown up in America and seen the indoctrination/propaganda put out (in large part by Zionist bought stooges) first hand, it can lead to some people of great character believing in some heinous eventualities being righteous (not religiously so necessarily but morally, and not just selfishly so but in a world-view sense).
This makes me hesitate to judge a populace, myself, without having visited or known someone from there. If I'm being honest, I'd find it difficult to condemn any large group of people based on the decisions of a few "elected" (do I really need to explain why, in democracies especially, these elected leaders do not represent the people in any real way, aside from committ atrocities in our names) having not lived there or subjected myself to the same conditions for at least some time.
I'd dare say, judging anyone or any group based on TV or social media representations of them is below the posters here.
Thanks Aleks. The Israeli lobby still completely controls most of the congressmen and senators. The replies I get back from petitions have not changed since October.
This is an interesting situation, because reality will have to break away from that organized-crime type aspect of US politics at some point in history playing out. The CIA and Mossad have become Siamese twins. How many thousands of small cuts will bleed the empire without pushing Israel to unleash nuclear attacks on the world?
Does the Al-Aqsa flood fit somewhere in this perspective? And did the government and IDF looked the other way when Hamas started the attack on the 7th of October?
I agree, Aleks, I thought about it when writing. I am not advocating collective guilt or punishment. You wrote about "misfortune" that is not punishment. What I meant is that there should not be any contact anymore between my country and the zionist state. The solution there is a matter of the Palastinensians who will win or lose this battle, who will live or perish. I let them decide how to proceed when winning. I was, therefore, not thinking about invading there and setting up a tribunal. As I am a German, and one who has studied en détail the national socialist herrenmenschen ideology and its implementation starting in autumn 1941 in east Poland and the Soviet Union, I am also not of the opinion that all Germany supported that genocide. Not even a majority! So, the collective guilt complex that even today, with all the executioners long dead, still holds the German public in its grip, is utterly inappropriate.
Thank you for taking time and effort to share your analysis Aleks. Much appreciated. I am also deeply grateful for your humane and compassionate approach. As ruthless as the current political decionmaking is, the combination of truth and compassion, cold analytics and open heart is the only way forward.
I’d say Iran has socially much in common with its neighbours from past horrendous USA military escapades such as the Iranian Revolution, a million Iraqi people died , the genocide of Yemen.
What narrowed minds not to perceive this history as not having an influence upon today .
If one million Americans were killed during the Cold War, the USA sure wouldn't have forgotten. But because Iranians are not Americans or British or French etc,, the West forgets that non-Westerners don't forget and want revenge or, at the least, want to survive.
Under this world order, almost all of us are non-people. As evident in the Middle East as it was when Andrew Bridgen was testifying to the UK Parliament about excess covid deaths.
Solid, plausible analysis. Another take: US is in a Thucydides trap and while it can’t really afford escalation, escalation may be the current regime’s least bad option from its own self-interest. Another Gulf of Tonkin incident in an election year might sway enough of the populace to rally behind Biden, even if holding their noses. Americans won’t tolerate large body counts of our own over the long term, but all Biden/MIC have to do is get past November.
Also, if de-dollarization is accelerating at the pace some say, a war would not be the worst way to soak up some of those dollars.
It’s all evil of course, but from a pragmatic standpoint war is probably looking like the least shitty option to the cabal.
It is entirely reasonable to observe the Thucydides trap, which is telescoped inward in time due to the pressures on and importance of the dollar fiat currency to Globalist interests. It is this trap that drives Hegemonic escalation fantasies, up to and including opening more hot-war fronts against Russia. I'll come back to this in a moment.
Many other wise commentators have observed here that the actors across the Middle-East acting in concert with Iranian interests are not, properly understood, controlled by Iran. "Controlled by Iran" is in fact a call by the Hegemon to recruit support for the "easy" job of ending Iran and breaking the southern side of the World-Island. To reiterate Mike Hampton's definition, proxy is: "A person or group that has a goal that can only be achieved through the assistance of another group desiring that goal for their own benefit."
I both agree that ME actors are proxies for Iran, and disagree. The other actors have motivations and reasons for wanting the Hegemon out of their business, and many of them have means to rebel independently and effectively; Yemen fought the British out of their country while the Shah was still torturing his people on behalf of London (and Washington). That challenges the idea of them as proxies, and yet it's hard not to argue that in terms of scale and tempo the abilities of ME actors are enhanced by connections to Iranian arms and coordination. Is Syria a Russian proxy for not falling under its color revolution? Put another way, is Britain a US proxy for acting in concert against Hegemon threats, or is the US a proxy of London for seamlessly inheriting the mantle of empire and all the old British ways of perfidy?
These actors really deserve a better word, "allies" perhaps, within the "Resistance". Allies help each other. They plan together toward common or related goals, and they generally communicate when they see themselves ready to contribute to those goals. In this case, what is the common goal? To quench the power of the Hegemon in its global command, and free themselves from economic and military threats thereby--without triggering a general nuclear exchange that lays the northern hemisphere waste.
To this last point, how do you keep a desperate and psychopathic Hegemon from marching closer to an inevitable nuclear resolution? You run out the clock. You buy time by occupying its physical, economic, emotional and managerial bandwidth with crisis after crisis. You erode legitimacy through an endless series of unforced-seemingly-essential errors as you maintain strategic initiative. And if necessary you start brushfire wars.
The Hegemon is well aware of what is happening, yet is faced with repeated zugzwang and seeks to return its initiative in "making a new reality". Thus we see now plans and warnings of European proxies forcing a war over Kaliningrad. These are countered by escalations in the Middle East across a broad front and a suddenly and pointedly aggressive North Korea, coupled with a Russia/Iran mutual defense declaration.
The message is very loud: squeeze Kaliningrad and kiss your oil and high-tech manufacturing goodbye.
What is your explanation of Iran Pakistan attacks? I find interesting that only the day before Pakistan and Iran army were making military exercises together.
Also Iran seemed to attack some terrorist in Pakistan and Pakistan terrorist in Iran.
Aleks, it may be good that the comment section isn't full of your usual 'worshippers'. Sometimes words have more value when it makes people respond with stings.
And yes, I agree. It is good to have a controversial discussion in the comment section as long as everything is somehow backed by arguments. It is important.
US here very liable to get sucked into a war with Yemen and Lebanon. Faces likelyhood of being pushed out of bases in most of Iraq (besides Kurdistan), and as a consequence of that, eventually Syria. But Biden admin can't let this happen during an election year (especially considering the unpleasant,
if entirely correct, withdrawal from Afghanistan). It's a colossal mess in the making.
I have to wonder if there's some tiny chance of a negotiated settlement by US in Yemen (e.g., give Ansarallah full control of the country and diplomatic recognition, and maybe several tons of shrink wrapped $100 bills....). Might be a sensible way to focus US efforts on the Lebanon/Syria/Iraq/Iran line of action, which is rather important. Lebanon, on the other hand, probably unavoidable, because hard constraint on US foreign policy wrt/ Israeli interests.
Impact on global energy trade due to transit, though, is probably overrated.
You state: »I don’t think Russia or China wishes Israel any misfortune (neither do I)«. Could you please explain why it is that YOU do not wish that state »misfortune«? It is a child murdering one, as you wrote yourselve. And, it seems, there are many reports, the ruling zionist elite is fully supported by the citizens of that state. I, for my part, wish them every misfortune I can think of because of the genozid they are committing, the jokes they make about it as well as their whole murderous history in Palastine.
I think one should always look at the government instead of the people.
Look what Germany did in WW2.
According to what everyone is demanding today for Israel, what should have been done to the German state and the German people back in 1945? If you think this question through you will understand what I mean.
And it is good, that there has been no collective punishment back in 1945. It is always the wrong approach.
This is a very difficult discussion to which I can't add anything else.
I think that you are misjudging the relationship between Iran and its allies . They have their own agendas ; particularly the Houthies . This is more a case of broadly similar ideologies . Iran is not the leader of Shia Islam . The Senior clerics are Iraqi and are critical of the political system in Iran . There is also an ethnic angle ; Arab Shias are not going to run around after Iranians . Hamas is not an Iranian ally . They were fighting each other in Syria a few years ago . The relationship seems to be based on the old saying " My enemies enemy is my friend , for now at least ".
And he who supplies weapons is my friend.
All these maneuvers, hidden or otherwise, would hardly be possible without agreements and alliances. The aim is legitimate: to finally curb the devastating ambition of an arrogant and murderous colonial power. To be sovereign. And to do business in peace.
Fair enough.
But for their sacrificial role in this power play, the Palestinians should be given back their land and a full-fledged state, not this two-state absolution of a 75-year-old colonialist theft followed by a genocidal occupation.
Just what Hamas is demanding on their behalf:
https://iranpress.com/mashal--palestine-seeks-independence-and-liberation-form-occupying-regime
https://en.irna.ir/news/85357643/Hamas-rules-out-two-state-solution
https://www.saba.ye/en/news3297230.htm
Nothing prevents Israelis who are capable of living with Others from living there.
One state solution is the only solution.
The ashkeNAZI don't deserve to be there and they will never accept a Palestinian nation state.
Nutty yahoo admitted this recently. The mask is off.
Well done here BMA , Piquet has done a fabulous job as well . All the best to you !
Thanks! Yes, Piquet is great :)
Good overview of the situation in the Middle East. I think the US Navy ships replenish their VLS in Bahrain, by transiting Hormuez twice; maybe Italy too. Either way, that is time away from being on station.
To quote Oliver Hardy, regarding the US' belligerence: "We'll, here's another fine mess you've gotten us into!"
Cheers from Cheyenne!
:D Thanks Kotanraju!
You wish no harm to a state that is openly carrying out a genocide? Intentional genocide is not "messing up". A state very fully backed by the vast majority of Israeli citizens in that genocide? I understand the need not to be cancelled for stating certain things, but this stinks of moral laxity and even propaganda. Then you push the whole "Iran is the mastermind of everything" BS. You just fell a number of ranks in my estimation, very sad.
Even if we assume that the majority of the Israeli population supports what is being done in Gaza (which we realistically can't withb100npercent certainty) the majority can be easily misled, especially when basic fear is involved. Just look at the Ukraine. Many people in Ukraine are led to believe the West is their best friend and savior, and act accordingly. Many also believe that they can only be save if Russia is defeated and exterminated. The reality is very different of course. But when presented with the existential threat people are easily manipulated and are prone to think and act irrationally. Self-harming even. I spoke to a few people from Israel that I know personally. They are very afraid and all they want is the threat to go away. Little do they know who the real enemy is and what can really bring them lasting peace they want. In fact, their assumptions and actions might very well bring them exactly what they fear the most. Certainly Is the case for Ukraine. I truly hope there is still a choice for Israeli people.
They have no choice and that is self imposed. The ashkeNAZI are in this predicament due to their inhuman attitudes towards goyim. It is due to their perception of themselves as chosen and superior, we are cockroaches.
Zionism is a cancer and if it can't be cured the hosts must be killed off.
They are scum, their entire fake, contrived society is rotten to the core.
There is also outright brainwashing and the teaching of false ancient history in schools, paralleling very much the what the Ukrainian regime has done. You could say the same with respect to the Nazis and the German population of the time. Hard to separate the evil doers from the evil doer supporters from the general population. BUT the general Israeli population live in a country that they know only exists because of the theft of Palestinian lands and an ongoing apartheid regime, which they directly benefit from.
Brainwashing, yes. Which led to many people that had been born in Israel to believe it is their sole homeland they have the right to defend at any cost. And not many people KNOW per se the real history, unfortunately. There is no excuse for ignorance in this day and age, but the situation is nevertheless tragic.
I agree that it is impossible to regard the current behaviour of the Israelis in Gaza as some kind of aberration. On the contrary, it is entirely typical, and it therefore makes no sense to fail to extrapolate from it to a wider condemnation of the state. Plus it is ludicrous to argue that the Houthis are controlled by Iran in this situation. The Houthis are acting with complete agency, willed on by the passion and commitment of the Yemeni nation. The fact that their interests happen to coincide with those of the Iranians is another matter entirely; they would be acting, with or without them.
Well they are armed by Iran and given the missile tech by Iran also.
I wouldn't say they are entirely controlled but there is an Axis if Resistance war room and all parties coordinate.
It is ludicrous to think that Ansarallah is not under any Iranian control.
So every state that the US MIC provides weapons to is under US control, directed by some war room under the Pentagon? Please, back off from the conspiracy theories. Supplying arms to and controlling are two different things.
"So every state that the US MIC provides weapons to is under US control, directed by some war room under the Pentagon" A silly comparison. Apples Vs eggs.
Iran arms them. That alone doesn't mean that Iran controls them. However the Axis of Resistance is Solemeini 's baby. He set the tactics, the war room, and the strategies.
Without Iran Hezbollah, AnsarAllah would not be in a position to do much at all.
Do you really think that Iran gives them everything they need without having a say in how they are used? Iran, and rightfully so, sets the agenda.
But some, like Ukraine, are proxies, so it doesn't make sense to make counterargument definitively negative.
The idea of a proxy which is generally banded around as an entity that is entirely controlled is too crude to apply to this situation - or nearly any, for that matter. If one goes back into the history of the region now called Ukraine, the tensions there predate the present crisis for many years. It would make more sense to say that the West took advantage of existing fault lines to create an active partner against the Russians, but those Ukrainians who have played their part cannot be denied their own motivations. A true proxy in the way that we understand it would be more like a mercenary - someone with no skin in the game at all that acts only for money. This might be true for a handful, but not for those impassioned Ukrainians covered in tattoos with their right arms slicing the air. A better description for them would be 'congenital fools'. As for the Houthis, naturally their interests coincide with Iran's, but one could say that about virtually every person in the region at the moment outside of Israel. It is hardly surprising. Is every Arab a proxy for the Persians? I think that might start a few fights if you tried to argue that in the streets of Tunis, Algiers, Cairo or Mecca. That's the kind of view one gets from squinting from a distance and blocking out any complicating detail. It is an insult to all parties in the region not to do better than that.
Your argued well, and thus I like it whilst still disagreeing. Nuance should be observed, but also who the most powerful partner in a relationship is e.g., the war in Ukraine would not exist if the USA had not been involved, and Israel is likely to have paused if the USA had leaned on it instead of speaking with forked tongue to MSM.
Can you define what you mean by proxy, and the limits of how you would use it as a concept? At one point is it acknowledged that the proxy has their own agency and that their interests merely coincide with the more powerful entity?
A person or group that has a goal that can only be achieved through the assistance of another group desiring that goal for their own benefit.
what's your problem with the Iran angle, pray?
Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis have agency, they are not just pawns of Iran. Their aims may align with Iran, they may be allies but they make their own decisions. It is pure Western warmongering propaganda to say that Iran is behind everything done by these groups.
Iran has been the one most subject to external aggression nations, whether it be the 8 year Iraq war on Iran (fully supported by the West, including providing the ingredients for the poison gas attacks) 1980-88, the Western ongoing economic war and attempted subversions, and Israeli terrorism, plus the support of Kurdish terrorism.
Iran has had to work hard to maintain its sovereignty and counteract Israeli and US imperialism. Working with the Shia majority in Iraq (greatly aided by the US invasion), helping Syria to resist Western/Saudi/Qatari destabilization, helping Hezbollah to push back the Israeli invaders, and helping the Houthi resist Western/Saudi aggression. And now at last able to make peace with Saudi Arabia and others.
That's a fair point but it also sounds like a bit of an overreaction. I have read elsewhere that Solemeini was working on strategies and tactics that coordinated with other players willing to resist US-IS encroachment. That doesn't make other players 'pawns'. What I think is a fair conclusion - and which have not read anywhere else - is that this is a concerted pushback coordinated with BRICS which is ostensibly only a trading alliance with no military aspects or dreams of conquest but no doubt have a few deadly quivers in their arsenal, not just quills for inking Declarations. The main thing being that many nations in the region are overcoming their differences in order to outsmart a common enemy. Instead of 'divide and conquer' we are seeing 'together we stand'. It's a significant development.
It reads to me as if you agree with Roger - you are actually saying the same thing. All parties in the region have agency and have suffered from various forms of Western imperialism for well over a hundred years - and before that, Turkish imperialism. You are absolutely right that the parties are overcoming differences in order to work together. They key phrase there is 'overcoming differences'.
Context. There's an opportunity for a new world order. States are acting accordingly.
Look Iran's not responsible for every Hez/Houthi/etc. action as the U.S. claims, this I agree. But to say these groups have real agency, it's all in how you define the term. On limited military actions sure they may be at their own discretion, but anyone foolish enough to believe any of these groups would act without Iranian approval, much less against Iranian wishes, makes me wonder how you found this article in the first place. Ukraine has shown us how vital arm's sustainment is to anything high intensity.
You really think if Iran says, "or else we cut our support" any of these groups agency will still be present? You really think they'd do something on this scale without their main weapons supplier, military supporter including development and advisors I'm sure, at least giving the nod? Did Iran master plan the whole thing? I'm somewhat dubious. Was this some completely independent intiative on Yemen's part? While not impossible I'd say next to no chance. If it was, it was extremely ballsy, but also extremely foolhardy. Either way I admire the hell out of their grit, just wish this helped them in some way.
I give credit to Aleks because when he introduced the Quds theory 3 months ago, he was the first I read who stated that Israel wasn't going to stop. It's also plausible that Iran wouldn't want to be a lame duck. Connections are always suspicious, and who is more connected than Iran to Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis. Not definitive but entirely plausible, and undeserving of insult.
I see Israeli public reaction as the same as the USA's after 9/11 - abhorrent, deserving severe punishment, but not enough for me to hate all Americans.
There is a significant difference between present-day Israel and 9/11 America, sufficient to render that comparison suspect. Most Americans live in an almost complete ignorance of what is going on in the world, and therefore could be easily hoodwinked into a state of vengeful militancy after 9/11. Israel is a tiny place, where right from the beginning it would have been impossible not to be aware of the acute injustice and violence meted out to the Palestinians in order to allow the theocratic state of Israel to rise from the destruction of Palestine. All of the early settlers were at least complicit, and most bore full responsibility. In recent years the disparity has only worsened. In any case, nobody said anything about hating Israelis, so that is a red herring. One can condemn a state of mind and a behaviour, without hating a person. This has been a distinction made within Christianity for two thousand years.
You've read me before so you should note that I don't use red herrings.
Regards the USA, ignorance is not an excuse, and I would argue that selfishness, the Cult of Me Me and Me, is more damaging.
Where we're born has to count. If we had lived our whole lives where our grandparents had lived their whole lives, we'd likely want our country to exist. And most countries exist because of conquest.
Netanhayu is as much the devil as Idi Amin, MbS, Biden and Trump. All devils exist because people believe they exist. Yet not all people deserve to be damned.
Before you respond, take note of my position against what Israel's been doing, and my posts in support of Palestine. It's not necessary to always criticise those who don't hate Jews. Some Jews are fabulous, as are some in every creed no matter how much I disagree with the creed.
Again, you are talking about hating Jews. I don't hate Jews, and at no point have I said anything about hating Jews. I'm Jewish myself, or at least of Jewish origin. My best friend is Jewish. You are using a red herring if you persist in resorting to talk about hating Jews when a person is using arguments about the state of Israel.
I don't know if you're real yet I still responded to you seriously, here and on my page before. Now you're gaslighting me because I was speaking against generalisation, not for it.
I'm against what's happening to Palestine and have written against it. This is not the first time I've noticed that people theoretically on the same side are 'challenged' for not being 100% hardcore without minds of their own. I fear that bigotry underlies that.
There's a lot of that on Substack. It started with the war in Ukraine, and multiplied with Gaza. It's counterproductive., and it messes up the comment section, distracting from the message of the article. I don't want to be disrespectful by doing the latter.
Now you're gaslighting me by implying that my pushing back on this is somehow disrespectful to the author of the blog. I'm merely saying something very simple - never, ever should dislike of the state of Israel be seen as synonymous with hating Jews. That's the kind of argument used to shut down debate in the West, and it is not appropriate for an intelligent person to deploy. As for whether I am real or not, I would like to know which point I have raised that could be in any way interpreted as in alignment with 77th Brigade propaganda..! Quite the opposite.. Everything I have said would see me excluded from British establishment circles.
Again, I respectfully disagree with your assessment that Iran pull the strings of the Axis of Resistance.
I also note the not too subtle siding with the "Israeli" population. This same hate and murderous population has voted for the Zionist extremists.
Hezbollah and other ME players can't stop the massacres in Gaza or Yemen, only the US and the Zionist regime.
Thank you very much.
I appreciate disagreements when they are backed by arguments.
I don't know if you've ever been to Israel or know anyone who has.
I know having grown up in America and seen the indoctrination/propaganda put out (in large part by Zionist bought stooges) first hand, it can lead to some people of great character believing in some heinous eventualities being righteous (not religiously so necessarily but morally, and not just selfishly so but in a world-view sense).
This makes me hesitate to judge a populace, myself, without having visited or known someone from there. If I'm being honest, I'd find it difficult to condemn any large group of people based on the decisions of a few "elected" (do I really need to explain why, in democracies especially, these elected leaders do not represent the people in any real way, aside from committ atrocities in our names) having not lived there or subjected myself to the same conditions for at least some time.
I'd dare say, judging anyone or any group based on TV or social media representations of them is below the posters here.
Thanks Aleks. The Israeli lobby still completely controls most of the congressmen and senators. The replies I get back from petitions have not changed since October.
This is an interesting situation, because reality will have to break away from that organized-crime type aspect of US politics at some point in history playing out. The CIA and Mossad have become Siamese twins. How many thousands of small cuts will bleed the empire without pushing Israel to unleash nuclear attacks on the world?
"The CIA and Mossad have become Siamese twins"
Master and slave is more accurate. Which one is master and which one is slave is hard to discern.
That's a very important question.
Well.. We should look to Europe and Ukraine to answer this question.
At least I think so.
Very interesting and intriguing perspective
Does the Al-Aqsa flood fit somewhere in this perspective? And did the government and IDF looked the other way when Hamas started the attack on the 7th of October?
Religious nuts, on both sides, will be opportunistic.
"Gott mit Uns"
When God's with one, it's against another, the paradox of religion.
A really good "God" could be so politically adept as to mysteriously serve the core interests of all parties, better than Sergey Lavrov, even.
God made Blinken :)
Thanks!
I agree, Aleks, I thought about it when writing. I am not advocating collective guilt or punishment. You wrote about "misfortune" that is not punishment. What I meant is that there should not be any contact anymore between my country and the zionist state. The solution there is a matter of the Palastinensians who will win or lose this battle, who will live or perish. I let them decide how to proceed when winning. I was, therefore, not thinking about invading there and setting up a tribunal. As I am a German, and one who has studied en détail the national socialist herrenmenschen ideology and its implementation starting in autumn 1941 in east Poland and the Soviet Union, I am also not of the opinion that all Germany supported that genocide. Not even a majority! So, the collective guilt complex that even today, with all the executioners long dead, still holds the German public in its grip, is utterly inappropriate.
Good comment. Thank you, Joerg.
Thank you for taking time and effort to share your analysis Aleks. Much appreciated. I am also deeply grateful for your humane and compassionate approach. As ruthless as the current political decionmaking is, the combination of truth and compassion, cold analytics and open heart is the only way forward.
It is truly a minefield... :))
Thank you, Lux!
I’d say Iran has socially much in common with its neighbours from past horrendous USA military escapades such as the Iranian Revolution, a million Iraqi people died , the genocide of Yemen.
What narrowed minds not to perceive this history as not having an influence upon today .
We live in a social world after all.
That Iran wouldn’t be involved is lunacy.
If one million Americans were killed during the Cold War, the USA sure wouldn't have forgotten. But because Iranians are not Americans or British or French etc,, the West forgets that non-Westerners don't forget and want revenge or, at the least, want to survive.
As the late, great John Pilger said, they are non-people (not white).
Under this world order, almost all of us are non-people. As evident in the Middle East as it was when Andrew Bridgen was testifying to the UK Parliament about excess covid deaths.
Solid, plausible analysis. Another take: US is in a Thucydides trap and while it can’t really afford escalation, escalation may be the current regime’s least bad option from its own self-interest. Another Gulf of Tonkin incident in an election year might sway enough of the populace to rally behind Biden, even if holding their noses. Americans won’t tolerate large body counts of our own over the long term, but all Biden/MIC have to do is get past November.
Also, if de-dollarization is accelerating at the pace some say, a war would not be the worst way to soak up some of those dollars.
It’s all evil of course, but from a pragmatic standpoint war is probably looking like the least shitty option to the cabal.
Yes, of course. This is also a possibility that I described in this article.
To take out Iran under any circumstances.
Even though I don't believe in this scenario, yet.
We'll see.
Thanks for your comment.
It is entirely reasonable to observe the Thucydides trap, which is telescoped inward in time due to the pressures on and importance of the dollar fiat currency to Globalist interests. It is this trap that drives Hegemonic escalation fantasies, up to and including opening more hot-war fronts against Russia. I'll come back to this in a moment.
Many other wise commentators have observed here that the actors across the Middle-East acting in concert with Iranian interests are not, properly understood, controlled by Iran. "Controlled by Iran" is in fact a call by the Hegemon to recruit support for the "easy" job of ending Iran and breaking the southern side of the World-Island. To reiterate Mike Hampton's definition, proxy is: "A person or group that has a goal that can only be achieved through the assistance of another group desiring that goal for their own benefit."
I both agree that ME actors are proxies for Iran, and disagree. The other actors have motivations and reasons for wanting the Hegemon out of their business, and many of them have means to rebel independently and effectively; Yemen fought the British out of their country while the Shah was still torturing his people on behalf of London (and Washington). That challenges the idea of them as proxies, and yet it's hard not to argue that in terms of scale and tempo the abilities of ME actors are enhanced by connections to Iranian arms and coordination. Is Syria a Russian proxy for not falling under its color revolution? Put another way, is Britain a US proxy for acting in concert against Hegemon threats, or is the US a proxy of London for seamlessly inheriting the mantle of empire and all the old British ways of perfidy?
These actors really deserve a better word, "allies" perhaps, within the "Resistance". Allies help each other. They plan together toward common or related goals, and they generally communicate when they see themselves ready to contribute to those goals. In this case, what is the common goal? To quench the power of the Hegemon in its global command, and free themselves from economic and military threats thereby--without triggering a general nuclear exchange that lays the northern hemisphere waste.
To this last point, how do you keep a desperate and psychopathic Hegemon from marching closer to an inevitable nuclear resolution? You run out the clock. You buy time by occupying its physical, economic, emotional and managerial bandwidth with crisis after crisis. You erode legitimacy through an endless series of unforced-seemingly-essential errors as you maintain strategic initiative. And if necessary you start brushfire wars.
The Hegemon is well aware of what is happening, yet is faced with repeated zugzwang and seeks to return its initiative in "making a new reality". Thus we see now plans and warnings of European proxies forcing a war over Kaliningrad. These are countered by escalations in the Middle East across a broad front and a suddenly and pointedly aggressive North Korea, coupled with a Russia/Iran mutual defense declaration.
The message is very loud: squeeze Kaliningrad and kiss your oil and high-tech manufacturing goodbye.
What is your explanation of Iran Pakistan attacks? I find interesting that only the day before Pakistan and Iran army were making military exercises together.
Also Iran seemed to attack some terrorist in Pakistan and Pakistan terrorist in Iran.
Could it be that they agreed on this?
I think there is a possibility that they agreed to it, especially since they have conducted military exercises together.
Mike and Lena will discuss this today in our podcast.
Great, I will for sure listen it!
Aleks, it may be good that the comment section isn't full of your usual 'worshippers'. Sometimes words have more value when it makes people respond with stings.
Thank you Mike!
I appreciate your comments ;)
And yes, I agree. It is good to have a controversial discussion in the comment section as long as everything is somehow backed by arguments. It is important.
US here very liable to get sucked into a war with Yemen and Lebanon. Faces likelyhood of being pushed out of bases in most of Iraq (besides Kurdistan), and as a consequence of that, eventually Syria. But Biden admin can't let this happen during an election year (especially considering the unpleasant,
if entirely correct, withdrawal from Afghanistan). It's a colossal mess in the making.
I have to wonder if there's some tiny chance of a negotiated settlement by US in Yemen (e.g., give Ansarallah full control of the country and diplomatic recognition, and maybe several tons of shrink wrapped $100 bills....). Might be a sensible way to focus US efforts on the Lebanon/Syria/Iraq/Iran line of action, which is rather important. Lebanon, on the other hand, probably unavoidable, because hard constraint on US foreign policy wrt/ Israeli interests.
Impact on global energy trade due to transit, though, is probably overrated.