Europe Prepares for War with Russia? [i]

Yes and no!

Introduction

The media in the West has recently switched gears. Ukraine is no longer going to conquer Crimea (and after that Moscow, of course) through the Beachhead of Krynki. It is, instead, imperative for all of Europe to prepare for the Fall of Ukraine and the appearance of Russian soldiers on the NATO borders of Poland, Hungary, and Romania. And, of course, to prepare for the imminent Russian invasion of the Baltics and Poland.

I briefly covered this topic in my previous Ukraine update (see here).

Nevertheless, the announcements of the whole MSM copy-train that Russia is preparing to invade NATO countries, as well as the appearance of fictional invasion plans, have caused concern. As far as I can see, it scares them less because of an imminent (fictional) Russian invasion, but rather because they are afraid that NATO could provoke a war by positioning several divisions right on the Russian borders.

For reference, you can check out this article in the New York Post.

I do not see a danger of WW3 here, and I will explain why. However, I think there is a threat to European peace which does not involve Russia.

Media Narratives

In Economics and Empires 3, I explained how Media Narratives are being strategically planned. Further, I explained that a given narrative is driven as long as possible. So, if the truth is not right in front of your face, the old narrative can be maintained. The well-prepared next narrative is rolled out across the controlled MSM landscape when the truth is no longer repressible.

The narrative being rolled out was prepared long ago and is now activated by events. The Ukrainian front lines are crumbling and being rolled back. There is a high probability that Avdeevka will fall within the next few weeks, as well as larger sections of the Donbas front. Such events (the collapse of Ukrainian positions and perhaps even its military) trigger the next phase of the media strategy: announcing that Ukraine will fall and that Europe is next. I announced this media narrative months ago (I could not find the corresponding article to link here).

So, there is nothing to worry about. The scripted chain of events is developing as expected.

Nothing to worry about? Well…

Budget Situation in Europe

In this article, I superficially discussed the budget situation in Germany. It is still relevant and largely applies to more European countries.

The bottom line is that the EU countries, at least the important ones, are struggling with their budgets. They cannot fulfill basic social demands or make required investments into their economy or industry, let alone increase spending on armament. The countries are cannibalizing their budgets, decreasing social spending, increasing taxes, cutting subsidies, etc., during significant inflation. People are more and more frustrated since their livelihoods are deteriorating for the sake of financing Ukraine’s downfall. This is evident by voting results that are… not in favor of the Western oligarchs.

Need for rearmament in Europe

Now comes an even bigger problem. Russia is going to finish Ukraine within a reasonable time. Since Ukraine has decided to forcefully get rid of its population as a scorched earth present for Russia, on behalf of the West, the conflict will go on for several more months. Maybe by the end of the year, as the last possible person has been mobilized and “consumed.”

This means that Russia will stop at the Polish borders. Maybe not right after the collapse, which will happen by the end of the year at the latest. One must consider that handing over towns and mopping up resistance cells will also take some time, and driving through the country would be very dangerous. It might take two to three years before the first Russian soldiers appear at the Polish/Hungarian/Romanian borders.

I need to make two exceptions here:

1. This does not apply to the regions of Novorossiya, such as Odessa and Kharkov. They are indeed priority targets for the Russian army.

2. I have no idea where this Polish/Hungarian/Romanian border might be when the Russian army arrives there. But it will almost certainly not be at its current location.

Everything I will write from here on, of course, only applies if NATO does not start to disintegrate as an organization before the time Russia reaches the NATO border.

So, what does it mean for NATO if the Russian army stops there?

It means that these countries will be frontline countries from a NATO perspective (not from the perspective of the three abovementioned nations). It doesn’t matter what we feel about that, but doctrinally, such countries must be secured. This issue has not been relevant since Ukraine was a non-NATO buffer country. It was very comfortable for NATO and its spending.

• Baltics: There is no sustainable front line possible. In case of war, the Baltics would cease to exist within days. So, there is no point in making great defense strategies here.

• Finland: Yep.

So, NATO created four (five?) new frontline countries during the course of the SMO. Poland, Hungary, Romania, and Finland. Congratulations.

Make no mistake, there is no way around it. The NATO countries must massively rearm and rebuild their armed forces to secure the new NATO frontier. This is not a fiction; all will do that. Well… everyone who believes in Santa Claus or that the Russians are the enemies of the Europeans. Which is BS. But it is what it is.

And this is what is going to happen across Europe. Of course, one big central European country will be forced to do the heavy lifting (again?) and contribute major efforts to rearmament and remilitarization. It has already started but will be more visible to everyone as the final collapse of Ukraine begins.

BTW: I estimate approximately 2 TRILLION Dollars/Euros are needed to rearm this major country and make it a decent fighting force again. And this only if it can produce its arms according to wartime laws on self-costs, without the money distribution scheme across the MIC.

If nothing happens to stop this madness, e.g., some sane politicians manage to implement independent decisions, these funds WILL be allocated for rearmament. This process will take several years.

Social Consequences

As initially hinted, the Europeans do not have enough money in their budgets, without assuming huge debt, to sustain their social systems, let alone finance rearmament. These are opposing goals.

This rearmament will only materialize by massive cuts to social benefits, pensions, and subsidies. And, by increasing taxes and cutting tax subsidies. Finally, we can expect massive interventions or even nationalization of whole European industries and economies.

To facilitate all of this and to motivate the people to endure what is to come to them, the narrative in the media needs to unfold as it has started now. We can expect far worse media escalations in this (fantasy) direction. The thinking is that if the people are afraid of the Russians, they will accept poverty and militarization to be protected from the enemy. Except… that there is no enemy outside… is it perhaps in the room? 😊

What we are witnessing currently is the opposite of pursuing peace.

Conclusion

I think that the last thing the Americans want is a major war between Russia and themselves or NATO. It would be the end of the world, and this is not what a powerful person or a capitalist wants. So, this whole “rearmament” stuff is another scheme by the American Oligarchs to end European industry and cut it off from world markets, to make Europe dependent on others for its military equipment. A rearmament of Europe will be a feast for the American industry and even more for the MIC oligarchs.

Well, this is not new or unexpected. Several days before the first articles about this invasion plan emerged in a German news outlet, I predicted it in Economics and Empires 6. See here:

Europe is presumably going down that road. And it means that tensions WITHIN Europe could explode. Not against or with Russia but exactly as described within the Economics and Empires 6 article, among European countries. Both within single European countries and European countries against each other. Without Russia’s involvement.

So, to return to the initial question: Nothing to worry about?

Well, we should not worry about WW3. But I think that if you are a European, then there is a lot to worry about, which has nothing to do with Russia.

Further topics

Terrorist attacks on Civilians

We saw all the recent Ukrainian terrorist attacks on civilians in Donbass and also in Belgorod and other regions as well. But why is Ukraine doing it?

Well, I think some reasons have already been discussed in other media:

• It causes problems for the Russian leadership. The idea being that the people think that the government is not protecting them well enough.

• It Diverts attention from failures in other frontline sections.

That is clear, but there is another important reason. I explained that months ago, but I recommend you re-read the corresponding sections in this article due to the current events.

The intent is to divert Russian military resources from the relevant frontline sections. Especially the scarce air defense resources. But what does “scarce air defense resources” mean? We all know that Russia has them in abundance. But when you plan operations, you always look for the bottleneck or constraint. In this case, the trained and mobilized operators of the air defense equipment are scarce. Here is a short summary of Ukraine’s possible motives:

• Stretch Russia’s air-defense resources thin across huge territories. Especially to enable the Ukrainian FPV drones, ATACMS, and Storm Shadows to operate more freely.

• The supply of ammunition is a bigger challenge than it might appear. Perhaps the production of missiles or artillery ammunition is plentiful, but “supply” is a challenge. The appropriate ordnance must be delivered in the right type and quantity to the right location in the right timeframe for all locations on the front. If you stretch your air defenses thin, you must create enough stocks of (the right) ammunition everywhere to last a long enough time in case you are forced to fire off your regional buffer stock. It is not impossible, but believe me… it is pain! It all comes down to logistics.

• If Russia does not do these things, civilians could (rightfully) be angry that they are not protected, especially if children are killed or injured.

So, attacking the enemy in the rear, especially at infrastructure and industrial objects connected to the war efforts, is a logical diversion in a war. Oil/Gas depots, terminals, industrial facilities, ports, railway hubs, etc. You do that to trigger the problems that I have mentioned above.

What you should NOT be doing is intentionally targeting civilians to trigger the abovementioned problems in the enemy lines. This is not only criminal; it is terrorism and a war crime! Considering who is planning these operations, nothing shocks me.

Death of the rear

In my latest article about Ukraine, I described how Ukraine’s rear is dying only to sustain the war on the front lines for just another few months. I described this war crime here.

A few days later, this tweet became famous, confirming what I wrote there. The tweet is heartbreaking. I want this war to end ASAP. Am I proud about the fact that my articles are being confirmed by reality? No, I wish all of this was a bad dream. A nightmare!

https://twitter.com/MariaMateiciuc/status/1743658029893984735

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[i] Edited by Piquet (EditPiquet@gmail.com)