Thank you for another excellent article. There is one thing to add to your analysis, however - the problems involved in coaxing an overweight, pampered, entitled, under-educated, under-skilled and hugely reluctant generation of Europeans into becoming an effective fighting force. We should not overestimate the likelihood of success.
There is no conceivable path to success for Europe in generating such a fighting force. You are entirely right. I communicated solely about the necessary costs. They will try, but they are most likely to fail. This is not only due to the reasons you mentioned, but also because of internal frictions (both within the EU and national states) stemming from social and economic downturns.
Thank YOU! Yes, I am entirely confident of their failure. Europe is a spent force. Speaking as a European, I'm actually delighted. It is about time we ate a little humble pie after our collective behaviour in the last few hundred years, and in any case the only cure for decadence is a modicum of hardship.
Alex from historylegends channel on YouTube did a very good analysis of the problems inside the UKs military in terms of recruitment and retainment
In summary, not met their recruitment targets since 2010, most units 30%, understaffed, 2 assault landing ships ans several frigates decommissioned in order to take their crews to man other ships whose crew numbers are too low.
Outsourced recruitment to a private company with a DEI agenda attached to said recruitment, it's led to a increase of 4% over twenty years in minority groups representation whilst over the same timeframe the numbers of active personnel have dropped from 115k to 79k, protected to be down to 75k by 2025.
The traditional 19th century recruitment mainstays of London is now down to 3% even though it's population represents over 8% of the UK.
9.5% of the population is Muslim but they represent only 0.4% of the armed forces - showing a huge problem in terms of recruitment from it's traditional sources (the poorer more deprived social areas)
Every last person I knew in the military has now mustered out over the past ten years, some of these guys were career army/marines, all of them despised what was happening internally and the agenda of those above to create a none nationalist/patriotic military in favour of a diverse representation of modern British demographics.
I think in western Europe that situation is repeated also in Canada the US etc the exact same thing is happening.
My own take, if you ostracise your key recruitment pool (poor, white males) to the extent tests happened then in places like the US and UK you effectively cut the balls off your military. Good luck trying to sow them back on when you really need them to join up again...
With the way NATO, the USA and Israel have been behaving, a wiser move for European countries might just be to join BRICS. But I don't think that will happen.
Don't they get sick of being lied to? If people question the being anti-genocide is anti-semitic accusation, shouldn't they question what else they're being lied to about? It's hard to believe they're still going along with NATO and the USA to their detriment.
BRICS etc. is just a way to give us a chance, a hope for infighting at the top. But they see it differently, as just two sides fighting to control us. I could be more cynical and say that it's one side against us, always, and that management is already fighting for that sin. But I can't handle that context at the moment, and so look nearer, just wanting Ukrainians, Russians, Palestinians, Argentinians etc. to be be free enough to breathe.
European countries (and Japan) are militarily-occupied vassals of the US. They will continue to do what they are told. As in the US, European democracy is - at best - a pretense; and mind kontrol, entrainment and subliminal programming are both real and effective:
"What you should NOT be doing is intentionally targeting civilians to trigger the abovementioned problems in the enemy lines. This is not only criminal; it is terrorism and a war crime! Considering who is planning these operations, nothing shocks me."
Nobody in Kiev, much less in NATO, cares. The only question to be asked is - what does Russia propose to do about it?
Similarly, of course europe is going to cannibalize its budgets to fight the Russian boogeyman. Of course this is not going to be popular with the voters. So what? Nobody of influence and authority cares what the voters think or want, and any political force that dares dissent will be banned on any pretext. Expect germany to put down the farmers' uprising using tactics similar to those Trudeau used to put down the truckers protests. The only question is whether the police and army will hesitate to shoot when ordered. Nothing so far indicates that they are anywhere near the breaking point, not that it will matter, because nothing so crude will be necessary.
Anyway, I expect NATO to openly and directly intervene, rather than allow its Ukrainian puppet to fall. It will probably start with sending poles, romanians, etc.. This will not be popular with the populace of these countries, but nobody will ask them their opinion. Rather, their opinion will be given to them. Russia has allowed the West to ignore too many red lines and the sunk costs for the West are such that they cannot be seen to back down now. The West sees Russian reluctance to escalate not as reasonableness or humanitarianism, but as contemptible weakness.
Speaking of - no, WWIII is not desirable, but the sociopaths who run the West would gladly annihilate 99% of life on earth, if that was the price of dominion over what remains.
"A few days later, this tweet became famous, confirming what I wrote there. The tweet is heartbreaking. I want this war to end ASAP. Am I proud about the fact that my articles are being confirmed by reality? No, I wish all of this was a bad dream. A nightmare!"
I saw this, and it jives with what people fresh out of Ukraine tell me. Of course, nobody in Kiev, much less in Washington or Brussels, cares in the least, as long as the gravy keeps flowing.
3 years later and the Donbas is still being bombed with lots of casualties. Russia is attacking supply places now and then, but why didn’t they do that 3 years ago? Ukraine troops couldn’t kill Russian troops if they didn’t have a way to do it. Too many things just don’t make sense to me.
I doubt that there is any conspiracy here. Simply that Russia really does not want this war, and even if they win, there is little in it for the average frustrated Russian or the Russian leadership other than they can avoid chaos. Similarly, the Russian leadership does not want to admit to itself that europe will always hate and fear them, that europe will never let them join their club.
By contrast, club membership has been held out to Ukraine, and that is what motivates Ukrainians, the idea that they can finally join europe, the Blessed Land Where Institutions Basically Work. If hating their brothers and parents is the price of admission, then they will pay that price.
A very thought provoking article! I am not sure if Russian troops would transit as far west as the NATO frontier, what with the anti-Russian (brainwashed) population there. I guess if the goals of the SMO could only be achieved by doing so. The new Russian Army Group forming west of St. Petersburg would be a "check," on the ambition of the Nordic and Baltic countries. Time will tell.
It will be fascinating to watch how Hungary and Slovakia economically engage Russia when the dust settles. It may provide an example for their neighbors and maybe the rest of Europe?
Well, of course you are right. But I think you missed my ironical question about where the NATO frontier will actually be when Ukraine starts to collapse :-)
When Ukraine collapses, NATO's main goal will be to stop Russia taking a long holiday in Transnistria [and it says something about the Western world that Substack sees "Transnistria" as a spelling error].
"The intent is to divert Russian military resources from the relevant frontline sections. Especially the scarce air defense resources".
One very real military result of the criminal US and British mass bombing raids on German civilians in 1940-45 was that large numbers of priceless 88 mm dual-purpose guns were kept in Germany to defend against the Allied bombers. This considerably reduced the number of 88s available on the Eastern Front to destroy Soviet tanks.
As I see it, that is absolutely not the case. In the first place - a fact that is not yet clearly apparent to most - the techniques of war have changed quite pronouncedly since 1945. In Korea, and then in Vietnam, and in Iraq and Afghanistan, distinctively different tactics and strategy imposed themselves - as witness the USA's poor showing in all of those wars. One sees lenghthy discussions of whether the fighting in Ukraine more closely resembles that of WW1 or WW2; an interesting topic but not one capable of a simple answer. It's like asking whether a bat is more like a rat or a bird. It has elements of both, but is not at all like either overall.
As a result of the changed techniques and weapons, land warfare today is neither as mobile as in WW2 nor as static as in WW1. Modern weapons have great range and are often extremely accurate even over the horizon. The Americans in particular have a great variety of specialised spy satellites, aircraft and drones that provide almost real-time intelligence to Ukrainian commanders. Even in 1944 Rommel pointed out that assembling an attack force of even one Panzer division was an invitation to Allied aircraft to carpet bomb and rocket it. Russian bombers are detected the moment they take off. Individual infrantrymen are hunted down and killed by FPVs, as are APCs and even tanks.
Thus war has become, if possible, even more dangerous. At the same time, advances in mass communications and media, and democratic institutions mean that governments have become infinitely more sensitive to casualties. In WW1 and even WW2 huge offensives were prepared and launched, accepting thousands of casualties, without civilians at home even knowing they were happening. Today, with front-line soldiers giving running commentaries on the action - and propaganda staffs poised to edit, slant, and even fake videos to make the enemy look weak or evil - commanders have to be very wary indeed about casualties or defeats - even apparent ones.
Western governments have reeacted by more or less ceasing to put their own citizen soldiers in danger at all. Instead they use proxy forces such as ISIS in Iraq and Syria, or the Kiev regime and its armed forces in Ukraine. It has often been pointed out that the more Russians and Ukrainians are killed or maimed, the happier Western politicians are. They see all Slavs as their enemies - or rather as obstacles on their path to power and wealth.
Therefore Moscow has proceeded carefully and prudently. Mr Putin was obviously most reluctant to resort to force in the first place, as he knew that nothing but clear and emphatic victory could justify it. Then the Russians tried using the absolute minimum of force, hoping that Ukrainians would overthrow the NATO-controlled Kiev junta; but that did not happen, and some Russians were killed as a result. Gradually the pressure was increased, the screw tightened. More soldiers recruited, more weapons and ammunition produced - all the time in the awareness that NATO might take advantage of Russia's efforts in Ukraine to launch a sudden, savage sneak attack. So a large proportion of forces had to be kept in reserve, ready to repel an attack on Russia itself.
Now the Russians are just continuing to apply steady, unremitting pressure everywhere, waiting for a gap to develop anywhere. Then they can pour forces into the opening and try to set up cauldrons. But mass breakthroughs like those of WW2 are impossible; scores of tanks racing across open country would be easy meat for aircraft and missiles.
The trick is to keep applying more and more pressure until the Ukrainian resistance breaks and they surrender - while incurring the absolute minimum of Russian casualties and materiel losses, and as far as possible also minimising harm to Ukrainians and their infrastructure - which will soon be effectively part of Russia again.
So what you are saying is that Russian refusal to use overwhelming force at the outbreak, gave NATO and Ukraine time to organize. "Dithering" in my words.
In a civilised country, if police have occasion to question someone, they would go to that person's house, knock or ring, and when the door is answered show their ID and ask politely to see the person in question. If he agrees, well and good. If he locks the door, the police may have to knock it down, after due warning. If he then locks himself in his bedroom with a gun, they must negotiate and warn him of the likely consequences. They may wait a while in the hope that he will change his mind or grow hungry, thirsty, or tired. Eventually they may have to break in and shoot him if he refuses to surrender.
In the USA, there is a strong tendency to dispense with all that dithering; the police just use "overwhelming force" to get their way. The result is that far too many innocent civilians are killed and their property destroyed.
The Russian approach is civilised, law-abiding, and proportionate. It does not lead to more casualties, but to fewer, although it may frustrate people who are too accustomed to shoot-em-up movies.
That you think that laws apply to such a situation and analogize to civil procedure is touching. I would comment on the idea that Russia follows your line of thinking as it assume facts not in evidence, except that Russia spent eight years trying to get Ukraine and its western guarantors to abide by Minsk-2, which everyone else knew from the outset was a sham.
The only law is that you can get away with. If Russia did not know this before, they had better learn it now.
There is a fundamental, and vitally important, difference between someone who does everything in his power to act legally, resorting to force only when it is obvious that he is dealing with people who irnore the law; and someone who ignores the law and resorts immediately to violence.
The Russians (and the Chinese) have taken great pains to act legally at all times, Thus, should the issue ever be judged on legal grounds, they are certain to be justified.
The American approach that power is all that matters will fail when power lets them down - asi it is doing right now.
Concerning the the preparation for a war with Russia in Germany, we have now three parties here who are pleading for a normalisation with Russia: The Alternative für Deutschland, then the Party of Sarah Wagenknecht formerly the Linke and the Werte-Union (Union of Values), a split from the CDU. It is expected that at least one third of the voters will vote for them. And as the economic situation is worsening, people will not be interested in futher war-mongering.
The Bundeswehr has also problems with getting new soldiers, so they are discussing to hire soldiers with no German nationalilty.
So I do not think that there will be a big militarisation, because that needs time and if them dust of war is settled, people will see that there is no serious threat from Russia.
Interesting, and at some point supply lines will simply break, shops will go empty, and discipline will evaporate. Then all these wonderful woke countries have large immigrant populations; I wonder if they won't be armed and become a kind of proxy that the Brits and Americans setup in the middle east, except now in reverse. And when the economy doesn't function forget about the internet, you'll be busy trying to get together some value to exchange with criminals and blackmarketeers. Yeah, these people think that the flow out of China is never ending, it's great being exceptional.
Rearmament, both in US and in those countries of EU which the US trusts, is certainly the name of the game. The added twist for EU, is that there will be pressure from the US to have its client states purchase US made weapons. Other than France, they'll probably comply with little more than a blink. This will make it especially interesting, in terms of budget, I think.
Hopefully enough people can see that they're being forced into support of a morally indefensible US centered system, and one which will sacrifice them the minute there's meaningful pressure, as there now certainly is.
"Hopefully enough people can see that they're being forced into support of a morally indefensible US centered system, and one which will sacrifice them the minute there's meaningful pressure, as there now certainly is."
Nobody will ask the people.
Göring: Why, of course, the people don't want war. Why would some poor slob on a farm want to risk his life in a war when the best that he can get out of it is to come back to his farm in one piece? Naturally, the common people don't want war; neither in Russia nor in England nor in America, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or a fascist dictatorship or a Parliament or a Communist dictatorship.
Gilbert: There is one difference. In a democracy, the people have some say in the matter through their elected representatives, and in the United States only Congress can declare wars.
Göring: Oh, that is all well and good, but, voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country.
• In an interview with Gilbert in Göring's jail cell during the Nuremberg War Crimes Trials (18 April 1946)
True, there won't be any kind of vote or anything like that. But the cooperation of society, with some degree of enthusiasm, is now needed to prolong status quo, in a way it wasn't 20 years ago. US/NATO doesn't have the advantages it once did.
And it's one thing to get Germans or Poles to agree to send some money to kill some random Ukrainians. It's another to have them go die themselves (not talking about the mercenaries).
War sucks! I despise those on Substack who choose a side like they're a cheerleader in a miniskirt. Rather be the guy at the bottom looking up the skirt, choosing to drop this human house of cards.
The EU will be more conservative in November. That will have an effect on this war. As will the U.S. election the same month. Consequently, Victoria Nuland and company will make the next 10 months hell. Action = reaction = Putin has to escalate.
Poor Ukrainians. And poor Russians, cause they've been dying quicker in places such as Avdeevka.
In between, I hope that pressure on Ukraine will expose political infighting and opportunism. That's the least violent way to kill Western propaganda and kill less people (that they think don’t matter).
The actual data on Russian deaths does not support your proposal that "Russians, cause they've been dying quicker in places such as Avdeevka." Russian casualties have actually been on a falling trend in the past few months. Ukie casualty rates have been increasing significantly.
Note that I never bought into Western propaganda about high Russian casualties, let alone that Ukraine miraculously had less. But there have been more videos of Russians taking hits, and channels like Weeb Union and Military Summary Channel have mentioned more Russian failures than they used too. The same way Russia suffered losses as attackers in Bakhmut, the same way it has to be real in Avdeevka. Krynki, albeit a small place, was also a tough ground fight. Logically, we only have to look at apocalyptic scenes to realise people are dying.
You're right, The question remains as to where and when to put our energy. If we wait too long the will have an unreachable technological advantage. Perhaps mocking them will wake up our neighbors. More likely though ,we'll all be in a gulag soon.
Aleks, wouldn’t you say that the following description seems to me to be a perfect recipe to entrench neoliberalism even further? - “The countries are cannibalizing their budgets, decreasing social spending, increasing taxes, cutting subsidies...”.
Excellent work is only what I can say, very good. But I have some points what you are missing or you are do not "see it" now.
First, I see that Russian will break down most of Ukraine and will stop in western or near western regions of Ukraine. They do not need to go there, they will be creating safe haven for broken army with plenty of neo nazis soldier. This type of army soon will break in armed gangs out of any low, with internal fights for profit and power. Yes, there will be some sporadic incursion in Russian lands, like Odessa. But nothing will change and some Western country's will be forced to occupied its former land. This countries will be Poland, Hungary, Romania.. With that move Russian will be throw "hot potato" in European hands and from distance with popcorn in hands will watch how European Union is handling hot potato. Central part of Ukraine will be buffer zone without Russian force, governed by Ukraine politicians without any military formation or heavy weapons at all. Strong Russian force will be permanently deployed in area of former Malorussia, and will be constantly ready to storm leftover of Ukraine and change "minds" of politicians in Rada.
Second one is about militarization of Western world.
It will not happen in near time at all. Whay? Well, for rebuilding a military force you MUST NEED TO HAVE HEAVY INDUSTRES. Dirty, heavy industries with hard working class, you need to have engineers in machine industries, engineers in chemical plants, engineers in mines. For that, you need to motivate young man and women to go to studies for mechanical, chemical, in another words they need to go in STEM studies. You need to rebuild factories, teach young people how to work, make of them good productive class. All of that, can not be achieved in short time. In 10 years? Maybe, maybe not. Probably, in 20 to 30 years from now we will see some major successes. I will try to explain: for one artillery shell you need iron. To get iron, first you need to dig it out from ground in mines(dirty, hard and dangerous, not so well paid job), then you need to transport it to smelting furnaces to make cast iron(for that you need energy and means for transportation), then transport it in another smelting factory where cast iron will be transformed into steel(you need transport and energy, hard labor..). After that, steel is going into specialized factories where is refined with some other metals for specific use, gun barrels, shells, armor for tanks.. From there, steel is trawling in other factories what will be produce final product.
Artillery shell without gunpowder and explosive is useless, so you need to have a chemical plants what will produce that raw material. Chemical plant need iron too. So, they will compete with armories for steel. Why chemical industries need steel? Just for maintenance and building new factories. And when you all put in place and start mass production of armaments, you will discover that you need caned food, you need cloths for soldiers, transportation and so on. In another words, you need to move entire population from no move, to full ahead. This is real hard to do. Especially today when many of young peoples are not teach to work hard, to have a families, children, and not to be selfish. So there must be total reset of population. And I am afraid of that. Reset are never done on peace way.
Igor will Russia run the risk of going beyond the area they want and now almost occupy? Do they need to be in Western Ukraine and be in danger? Is the heavy industry you mention still needed at this time?
Isn't it precisely the light industry that will determine modern warfare? Drones, AI. Satellites, psyops.
A kind of guerrilla espionage war? That is what Ukraine now seems to specialize in, also out of necessity due to the great losses of people. Russia is of course also specializing in this and perhaps already further in some areas? That together with the intelligence services from the UK, US and EU and Musk's satellite trains. Following Israel and the US more part of the empire shielded by Iron dome with attacks by drone soldiers? The Iron drome may also become cheaper with AI? I've also heard stories of some kind of solar storms and drone swarm pesticides or is that my imagination? :)
It seems that Russia has the most gunpowder stash.
I totally agree with Alex. It is for sure that EU countries would try to switch to militarism. They will spend the money in spite that it is needed for other things. The decision was made. But to achieve that goal, Europeans would need to dismantle the consumer society. Because there is nothing more in EU then consumerism and that consumerism is what attracts millions of Africans and others. The reduced, mentally impoverished individuals, conditioned via MSM and commercials, brainwashed by Hollywood have no other wish but to become spenders. So, while migrants are coming to Europe to exploit the benefits not to fight, the domestic population is weak and without any drive. I work with young people in engineering and I see how weak they are now, how difficult for them is to bite into problems, not to mention to endure any sacrifice.
I guess, it is going to be a huge debacle in EU, this new militarization, so against everything that Europe is now. So against the wokist core principles. But the population will swallow everything, there shell be no revolt.. I work with the people form Dutch middle class. They are even against Trump, who has no influence on their lives.
Thanks Aleks. I know that you are inviting the reader to think with many of your statements.
What I think is that Europe is too bogged down with bureaucracy and debt-service "rent" on all aspects of the productive economy to pull out a massive military buildup. You observe that Europe is imploding economically. Yes, the US is starving it of Russian energy resources, and bleeding it by forcing it to buy LNG from the US, but this is all going down the toilet swirl already, and the US is not that far behind, but does have oil, gas and coal.
Thanks for subscribing. I'm about to post more onion-skin layers of this, pertaining to natural gas, Texas, and to the threat to the unity of the "United" States.
Thank you for another excellent article. There is one thing to add to your analysis, however - the problems involved in coaxing an overweight, pampered, entitled, under-educated, under-skilled and hugely reluctant generation of Europeans into becoming an effective fighting force. We should not overestimate the likelihood of success.
There is no conceivable path to success for Europe in generating such a fighting force. You are entirely right. I communicated solely about the necessary costs. They will try, but they are most likely to fail. This is not only due to the reasons you mentioned, but also because of internal frictions (both within the EU and national states) stemming from social and economic downturns.
Thank you, by the way.
Thank YOU! Yes, I am entirely confident of their failure. Europe is a spent force. Speaking as a European, I'm actually delighted. It is about time we ate a little humble pie after our collective behaviour in the last few hundred years, and in any case the only cure for decadence is a modicum of hardship.
Alex from historylegends channel on YouTube did a very good analysis of the problems inside the UKs military in terms of recruitment and retainment
In summary, not met their recruitment targets since 2010, most units 30%, understaffed, 2 assault landing ships ans several frigates decommissioned in order to take their crews to man other ships whose crew numbers are too low.
Outsourced recruitment to a private company with a DEI agenda attached to said recruitment, it's led to a increase of 4% over twenty years in minority groups representation whilst over the same timeframe the numbers of active personnel have dropped from 115k to 79k, protected to be down to 75k by 2025.
The traditional 19th century recruitment mainstays of London is now down to 3% even though it's population represents over 8% of the UK.
9.5% of the population is Muslim but they represent only 0.4% of the armed forces - showing a huge problem in terms of recruitment from it's traditional sources (the poorer more deprived social areas)
Every last person I knew in the military has now mustered out over the past ten years, some of these guys were career army/marines, all of them despised what was happening internally and the agenda of those above to create a none nationalist/patriotic military in favour of a diverse representation of modern British demographics.
I think in western Europe that situation is repeated also in Canada the US etc the exact same thing is happening.
My own take, if you ostracise your key recruitment pool (poor, white males) to the extent tests happened then in places like the US and UK you effectively cut the balls off your military. Good luck trying to sow them back on when you really need them to join up again...
Thanks for the important info....will I be able to find the relevant History Legends video without too much difficulty?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tlTGBGPOblc
Not only "overweight, pampered, entitled, under-educated, under-skilled and hugely reluctant" but also mind kontrolled, entrained and programmed :(
Absolutely!
With the way NATO, the USA and Israel have been behaving, a wiser move for European countries might just be to join BRICS. But I don't think that will happen.
Don't they get sick of being lied to? If people question the being anti-genocide is anti-semitic accusation, shouldn't they question what else they're being lied to about? It's hard to believe they're still going along with NATO and the USA to their detriment.
You're right. This is what I proposed in my Economics and Empries series.
I think, eventually most European countries will join BRICS.
The question is only whether they will fight each other before that or not.
I hope they won't and that everything will be done peacefully.
BRICS etc. is just a way to give us a chance, a hope for infighting at the top. But they see it differently, as just two sides fighting to control us. I could be more cynical and say that it's one side against us, always, and that management is already fighting for that sin. But I can't handle that context at the moment, and so look nearer, just wanting Ukrainians, Russians, Palestinians, Argentinians etc. to be be free enough to breathe.
European countries (and Japan) are militarily-occupied vassals of the US. They will continue to do what they are told. As in the US, European democracy is - at best - a pretense; and mind kontrol, entrainment and subliminal programming are both real and effective:
https://home.solari.com/entrained-subliminal-programming-and-financial-manipulation/
https://rumble.com/v44rjki-neurowarfare-the-brain-is-the-battlefield-2023-false-flags-conference.html
They won't. Doesn't matter how wise. They won't.
"What you should NOT be doing is intentionally targeting civilians to trigger the abovementioned problems in the enemy lines. This is not only criminal; it is terrorism and a war crime! Considering who is planning these operations, nothing shocks me."
Nobody in Kiev, much less in NATO, cares. The only question to be asked is - what does Russia propose to do about it?
Similarly, of course europe is going to cannibalize its budgets to fight the Russian boogeyman. Of course this is not going to be popular with the voters. So what? Nobody of influence and authority cares what the voters think or want, and any political force that dares dissent will be banned on any pretext. Expect germany to put down the farmers' uprising using tactics similar to those Trudeau used to put down the truckers protests. The only question is whether the police and army will hesitate to shoot when ordered. Nothing so far indicates that they are anywhere near the breaking point, not that it will matter, because nothing so crude will be necessary.
Anyway, I expect NATO to openly and directly intervene, rather than allow its Ukrainian puppet to fall. It will probably start with sending poles, romanians, etc.. This will not be popular with the populace of these countries, but nobody will ask them their opinion. Rather, their opinion will be given to them. Russia has allowed the West to ignore too many red lines and the sunk costs for the West are such that they cannot be seen to back down now. The West sees Russian reluctance to escalate not as reasonableness or humanitarianism, but as contemptible weakness.
Speaking of - no, WWIII is not desirable, but the sociopaths who run the West would gladly annihilate 99% of life on earth, if that was the price of dominion over what remains.
"A few days later, this tweet became famous, confirming what I wrote there. The tweet is heartbreaking. I want this war to end ASAP. Am I proud about the fact that my articles are being confirmed by reality? No, I wish all of this was a bad dream. A nightmare!"
I saw this, and it jives with what people fresh out of Ukraine tell me. Of course, nobody in Kiev, much less in Washington or Brussels, cares in the least, as long as the gravy keeps flowing.
Right :(
Your comment reminded me of what PCR wrote about Putin letting NATO cross tooo many red lines.
https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2024/01/22/will-war-result-from-the-ever-hesitant-putin/
3 years later and the Donbas is still being bombed with lots of casualties. Russia is attacking supply places now and then, but why didn’t they do that 3 years ago? Ukraine troops couldn’t kill Russian troops if they didn’t have a way to do it. Too many things just don’t make sense to me.
I doubt that there is any conspiracy here. Simply that Russia really does not want this war, and even if they win, there is little in it for the average frustrated Russian or the Russian leadership other than they can avoid chaos. Similarly, the Russian leadership does not want to admit to itself that europe will always hate and fear them, that europe will never let them join their club.
By contrast, club membership has been held out to Ukraine, and that is what motivates Ukrainians, the idea that they can finally join europe, the Blessed Land Where Institutions Basically Work. If hating their brothers and parents is the price of admission, then they will pay that price.
"join europe, the Blessed Land Where Institutions Basically Work'...
Eh? Please enlighten?
That is how many people in the former Soviet Bloc see the West.
Yes we have to stop the evil Satan thing from shooting itself tooo
Once you understand that the West is run by sociopaths, everything they do makes perfect sense.
they won't have the guts to do it openly
They're doing it right now. In fact, it's Russia that is loathe to escalate.
I appreciate your insights, and in a way you're right, but I think you're dooming a bit today...
I hope I am wrong, but we've been hearing confident predictions of imminent victory for almost two years now.
A very thought provoking article! I am not sure if Russian troops would transit as far west as the NATO frontier, what with the anti-Russian (brainwashed) population there. I guess if the goals of the SMO could only be achieved by doing so. The new Russian Army Group forming west of St. Petersburg would be a "check," on the ambition of the Nordic and Baltic countries. Time will tell.
It will be fascinating to watch how Hungary and Slovakia economically engage Russia when the dust settles. It may provide an example for their neighbors and maybe the rest of Europe?
Well, of course you are right. But I think you missed my ironical question about where the NATO frontier will actually be when Ukraine starts to collapse :-)
And this question incorporates your "doubts".
How it actually will look like, I have no idea.
When Ukraine collapses, NATO's main goal will be to stop Russia taking a long holiday in Transnistria [and it says something about the Western world that Substack sees "Transnistria" as a spelling error].
Dang, took you as too literal. 😃
"The intent is to divert Russian military resources from the relevant frontline sections. Especially the scarce air defense resources".
One very real military result of the criminal US and British mass bombing raids on German civilians in 1940-45 was that large numbers of priceless 88 mm dual-purpose guns were kept in Germany to defend against the Allied bombers. This considerably reduced the number of 88s available on the Eastern Front to destroy Soviet tanks.
Right!
While this is true. Russian dithering is getting people killed.
As I see it, that is absolutely not the case. In the first place - a fact that is not yet clearly apparent to most - the techniques of war have changed quite pronouncedly since 1945. In Korea, and then in Vietnam, and in Iraq and Afghanistan, distinctively different tactics and strategy imposed themselves - as witness the USA's poor showing in all of those wars. One sees lenghthy discussions of whether the fighting in Ukraine more closely resembles that of WW1 or WW2; an interesting topic but not one capable of a simple answer. It's like asking whether a bat is more like a rat or a bird. It has elements of both, but is not at all like either overall.
As a result of the changed techniques and weapons, land warfare today is neither as mobile as in WW2 nor as static as in WW1. Modern weapons have great range and are often extremely accurate even over the horizon. The Americans in particular have a great variety of specialised spy satellites, aircraft and drones that provide almost real-time intelligence to Ukrainian commanders. Even in 1944 Rommel pointed out that assembling an attack force of even one Panzer division was an invitation to Allied aircraft to carpet bomb and rocket it. Russian bombers are detected the moment they take off. Individual infrantrymen are hunted down and killed by FPVs, as are APCs and even tanks.
Thus war has become, if possible, even more dangerous. At the same time, advances in mass communications and media, and democratic institutions mean that governments have become infinitely more sensitive to casualties. In WW1 and even WW2 huge offensives were prepared and launched, accepting thousands of casualties, without civilians at home even knowing they were happening. Today, with front-line soldiers giving running commentaries on the action - and propaganda staffs poised to edit, slant, and even fake videos to make the enemy look weak or evil - commanders have to be very wary indeed about casualties or defeats - even apparent ones.
Western governments have reeacted by more or less ceasing to put their own citizen soldiers in danger at all. Instead they use proxy forces such as ISIS in Iraq and Syria, or the Kiev regime and its armed forces in Ukraine. It has often been pointed out that the more Russians and Ukrainians are killed or maimed, the happier Western politicians are. They see all Slavs as their enemies - or rather as obstacles on their path to power and wealth.
Therefore Moscow has proceeded carefully and prudently. Mr Putin was obviously most reluctant to resort to force in the first place, as he knew that nothing but clear and emphatic victory could justify it. Then the Russians tried using the absolute minimum of force, hoping that Ukrainians would overthrow the NATO-controlled Kiev junta; but that did not happen, and some Russians were killed as a result. Gradually the pressure was increased, the screw tightened. More soldiers recruited, more weapons and ammunition produced - all the time in the awareness that NATO might take advantage of Russia's efforts in Ukraine to launch a sudden, savage sneak attack. So a large proportion of forces had to be kept in reserve, ready to repel an attack on Russia itself.
Now the Russians are just continuing to apply steady, unremitting pressure everywhere, waiting for a gap to develop anywhere. Then they can pour forces into the opening and try to set up cauldrons. But mass breakthroughs like those of WW2 are impossible; scores of tanks racing across open country would be easy meat for aircraft and missiles.
The trick is to keep applying more and more pressure until the Ukrainian resistance breaks and they surrender - while incurring the absolute minimum of Russian casualties and materiel losses, and as far as possible also minimising harm to Ukrainians and their infrastructure - which will soon be effectively part of Russia again.
So what you are saying is that Russian refusal to use overwhelming force at the outbreak, gave NATO and Ukraine time to organize. "Dithering" in my words.
In a civilised country, if police have occasion to question someone, they would go to that person's house, knock or ring, and when the door is answered show their ID and ask politely to see the person in question. If he agrees, well and good. If he locks the door, the police may have to knock it down, after due warning. If he then locks himself in his bedroom with a gun, they must negotiate and warn him of the likely consequences. They may wait a while in the hope that he will change his mind or grow hungry, thirsty, or tired. Eventually they may have to break in and shoot him if he refuses to surrender.
In the USA, there is a strong tendency to dispense with all that dithering; the police just use "overwhelming force" to get their way. The result is that far too many innocent civilians are killed and their property destroyed.
The Russian approach is civilised, law-abiding, and proportionate. It does not lead to more casualties, but to fewer, although it may frustrate people who are too accustomed to shoot-em-up movies.
That you think that laws apply to such a situation and analogize to civil procedure is touching. I would comment on the idea that Russia follows your line of thinking as it assume facts not in evidence, except that Russia spent eight years trying to get Ukraine and its western guarantors to abide by Minsk-2, which everyone else knew from the outset was a sham.
The only law is that you can get away with. If Russia did not know this before, they had better learn it now.
There is a fundamental, and vitally important, difference between someone who does everything in his power to act legally, resorting to force only when it is obvious that he is dealing with people who irnore the law; and someone who ignores the law and resorts immediately to violence.
The Russians (and the Chinese) have taken great pains to act legally at all times, Thus, should the issue ever be judged on legal grounds, they are certain to be justified.
The American approach that power is all that matters will fail when power lets them down - asi it is doing right now.
Concerning the the preparation for a war with Russia in Germany, we have now three parties here who are pleading for a normalisation with Russia: The Alternative für Deutschland, then the Party of Sarah Wagenknecht formerly the Linke and the Werte-Union (Union of Values), a split from the CDU. It is expected that at least one third of the voters will vote for them. And as the economic situation is worsening, people will not be interested in futher war-mongering.
The Bundeswehr has also problems with getting new soldiers, so they are discussing to hire soldiers with no German nationalilty.
So I do not think that there will be a big militarisation, because that needs time and if them dust of war is settled, people will see that there is no serious threat from Russia.
Interesting, and at some point supply lines will simply break, shops will go empty, and discipline will evaporate. Then all these wonderful woke countries have large immigrant populations; I wonder if they won't be armed and become a kind of proxy that the Brits and Americans setup in the middle east, except now in reverse. And when the economy doesn't function forget about the internet, you'll be busy trying to get together some value to exchange with criminals and blackmarketeers. Yeah, these people think that the flow out of China is never ending, it's great being exceptional.
I notice that 4.3 million views read the tweeted article speaking of the reality of the Ukraine. The truth spoke.
A100 years ago isn’t today with the electorate
Being educated living in a social media revolution which doesn’t rely on authority to judge the truth.
EU has been bankrupted in so many ways by its moronic leaders often unelected.
No money no army no weapons no soldiers who care to fight for this cynical joke played upon its people.
The EU electorate will change the political seeing
Propaganda is a poor substitute for communicating a real life to citizens and the consequences will be dramatic.
Cry wolf has already happened too many times to be effective as the fable tells us.
Rearmament, both in US and in those countries of EU which the US trusts, is certainly the name of the game. The added twist for EU, is that there will be pressure from the US to have its client states purchase US made weapons. Other than France, they'll probably comply with little more than a blink. This will make it especially interesting, in terms of budget, I think.
Hopefully enough people can see that they're being forced into support of a morally indefensible US centered system, and one which will sacrifice them the minute there's meaningful pressure, as there now certainly is.
"Hopefully enough people can see that they're being forced into support of a morally indefensible US centered system, and one which will sacrifice them the minute there's meaningful pressure, as there now certainly is."
Nobody will ask the people.
Göring: Why, of course, the people don't want war. Why would some poor slob on a farm want to risk his life in a war when the best that he can get out of it is to come back to his farm in one piece? Naturally, the common people don't want war; neither in Russia nor in England nor in America, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or a fascist dictatorship or a Parliament or a Communist dictatorship.
Gilbert: There is one difference. In a democracy, the people have some say in the matter through their elected representatives, and in the United States only Congress can declare wars.
Göring: Oh, that is all well and good, but, voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country.
• In an interview with Gilbert in Göring's jail cell during the Nuremberg War Crimes Trials (18 April 1946)
True, there won't be any kind of vote or anything like that. But the cooperation of society, with some degree of enthusiasm, is now needed to prolong status quo, in a way it wasn't 20 years ago. US/NATO doesn't have the advantages it once did.
And it's one thing to get Germans or Poles to agree to send some money to kill some random Ukrainians. It's another to have them go die themselves (not talking about the mercenaries).
Take a look at the Göring quote once more.
War sucks! I despise those on Substack who choose a side like they're a cheerleader in a miniskirt. Rather be the guy at the bottom looking up the skirt, choosing to drop this human house of cards.
The EU will be more conservative in November. That will have an effect on this war. As will the U.S. election the same month. Consequently, Victoria Nuland and company will make the next 10 months hell. Action = reaction = Putin has to escalate.
Poor Ukrainians. And poor Russians, cause they've been dying quicker in places such as Avdeevka.
In between, I hope that pressure on Ukraine will expose political infighting and opportunism. That's the least violent way to kill Western propaganda and kill less people (that they think don’t matter).
"...Rather be the guy at the bottom looking up the skirt..."
Careful what you ask for, you might be looking up the skirt of Sarah Ashton-Cirillo!
The actual data on Russian deaths does not support your proposal that "Russians, cause they've been dying quicker in places such as Avdeevka." Russian casualties have actually been on a falling trend in the past few months. Ukie casualty rates have been increasing significantly.
https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/20/casualties_eng
The Ukie army is very short on artillery shells and much else, which helps reduce the Russian losses.
Note that I never bought into Western propaganda about high Russian casualties, let alone that Ukraine miraculously had less. But there have been more videos of Russians taking hits, and channels like Weeb Union and Military Summary Channel have mentioned more Russian failures than they used too. The same way Russia suffered losses as attackers in Bakhmut, the same way it has to be real in Avdeevka. Krynki, albeit a small place, was also a tough ground fight. Logically, we only have to look at apocalyptic scenes to realise people are dying.
For sometime now it feels like Russian (and probably BRICS in general) strategy is for West to self destruct.
Wait and hope is not a plan.
As for Russia - from where I am at the moment - it certainly doesn't feel like they are waiting or hoping for something.
Your words: "For sometime now it feels like Russian (and probably BRICS in general) strategy is for West to self destruct."
You're right, The question remains as to where and when to put our energy. If we wait too long the will have an unreachable technological advantage. Perhaps mocking them will wake up our neighbors. More likely though ,we'll all be in a gulag soon.
Aleks, wouldn’t you say that the following description seems to me to be a perfect recipe to entrench neoliberalism even further? - “The countries are cannibalizing their budgets, decreasing social spending, increasing taxes, cutting subsidies...”.
Excellent work is only what I can say, very good. But I have some points what you are missing or you are do not "see it" now.
First, I see that Russian will break down most of Ukraine and will stop in western or near western regions of Ukraine. They do not need to go there, they will be creating safe haven for broken army with plenty of neo nazis soldier. This type of army soon will break in armed gangs out of any low, with internal fights for profit and power. Yes, there will be some sporadic incursion in Russian lands, like Odessa. But nothing will change and some Western country's will be forced to occupied its former land. This countries will be Poland, Hungary, Romania.. With that move Russian will be throw "hot potato" in European hands and from distance with popcorn in hands will watch how European Union is handling hot potato. Central part of Ukraine will be buffer zone without Russian force, governed by Ukraine politicians without any military formation or heavy weapons at all. Strong Russian force will be permanently deployed in area of former Malorussia, and will be constantly ready to storm leftover of Ukraine and change "minds" of politicians in Rada.
Second one is about militarization of Western world.
It will not happen in near time at all. Whay? Well, for rebuilding a military force you MUST NEED TO HAVE HEAVY INDUSTRES. Dirty, heavy industries with hard working class, you need to have engineers in machine industries, engineers in chemical plants, engineers in mines. For that, you need to motivate young man and women to go to studies for mechanical, chemical, in another words they need to go in STEM studies. You need to rebuild factories, teach young people how to work, make of them good productive class. All of that, can not be achieved in short time. In 10 years? Maybe, maybe not. Probably, in 20 to 30 years from now we will see some major successes. I will try to explain: for one artillery shell you need iron. To get iron, first you need to dig it out from ground in mines(dirty, hard and dangerous, not so well paid job), then you need to transport it to smelting furnaces to make cast iron(for that you need energy and means for transportation), then transport it in another smelting factory where cast iron will be transformed into steel(you need transport and energy, hard labor..). After that, steel is going into specialized factories where is refined with some other metals for specific use, gun barrels, shells, armor for tanks.. From there, steel is trawling in other factories what will be produce final product.
Artillery shell without gunpowder and explosive is useless, so you need to have a chemical plants what will produce that raw material. Chemical plant need iron too. So, they will compete with armories for steel. Why chemical industries need steel? Just for maintenance and building new factories. And when you all put in place and start mass production of armaments, you will discover that you need caned food, you need cloths for soldiers, transportation and so on. In another words, you need to move entire population from no move, to full ahead. This is real hard to do. Especially today when many of young peoples are not teach to work hard, to have a families, children, and not to be selfish. So there must be total reset of population. And I am afraid of that. Reset are never done on peace way.
With joy, I wait more of your post :)))
With best regards
Igor will Russia run the risk of going beyond the area they want and now almost occupy? Do they need to be in Western Ukraine and be in danger? Is the heavy industry you mention still needed at this time?
Isn't it precisely the light industry that will determine modern warfare? Drones, AI. Satellites, psyops.
A kind of guerrilla espionage war? That is what Ukraine now seems to specialize in, also out of necessity due to the great losses of people. Russia is of course also specializing in this and perhaps already further in some areas? That together with the intelligence services from the UK, US and EU and Musk's satellite trains. Following Israel and the US more part of the empire shielded by Iron dome with attacks by drone soldiers? The Iron drome may also become cheaper with AI? I've also heard stories of some kind of solar storms and drone swarm pesticides or is that my imagination? :)
It seems that Russia has the most gunpowder stash.
I totally agree with Alex. It is for sure that EU countries would try to switch to militarism. They will spend the money in spite that it is needed for other things. The decision was made. But to achieve that goal, Europeans would need to dismantle the consumer society. Because there is nothing more in EU then consumerism and that consumerism is what attracts millions of Africans and others. The reduced, mentally impoverished individuals, conditioned via MSM and commercials, brainwashed by Hollywood have no other wish but to become spenders. So, while migrants are coming to Europe to exploit the benefits not to fight, the domestic population is weak and without any drive. I work with young people in engineering and I see how weak they are now, how difficult for them is to bite into problems, not to mention to endure any sacrifice.
I guess, it is going to be a huge debacle in EU, this new militarization, so against everything that Europe is now. So against the wokist core principles. But the population will swallow everything, there shell be no revolt.. I work with the people form Dutch middle class. They are even against Trump, who has no influence on their lives.
Thanks Aleks. I know that you are inviting the reader to think with many of your statements.
What I think is that Europe is too bogged down with bureaucracy and debt-service "rent" on all aspects of the productive economy to pull out a massive military buildup. You observe that Europe is imploding economically. Yes, the US is starving it of Russian energy resources, and bleeding it by forcing it to buy LNG from the US, but this is all going down the toilet swirl already, and the US is not that far behind, but does have oil, gas and coal.
https://drjohnsblog.substack.com/p/implications-of-energy-cannibalism
Russia is in a unique position of having untapped resources and the ability to defend them.
https://www.globalwitness.org/en/campaigns/stop-russian-oil/american-purchases-laundered-russian-oil-worth-least-180-million-kremlin/
"Bidness is bidness", as is said around here.
Thanks for subscribing. I'm about to post more onion-skin layers of this, pertaining to natural gas, Texas, and to the threat to the unity of the "United" States.
NATO preparing for war is going to take at least a decade. Cards on the table, let's see what you've got!
https://open.substack.com/pub/argomend/p/power-and-influence?r=28g8km&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web