Geopolitics Update [i]

Prigozhin, Offensives and Geopolitics

Introduction

Many events have taken place since my last operational update. This article has become a little longer than usual because we need to discuss a variety of topics. Nevertheless, please forgive me if I don’t go into too much detail, in order to manage the size of this article.

We have the death of Prigozhin, BRICS, the Ukrainian offensive, and many more topics. And all of them are somehow connected to each other.

With this article I will try to connect the seemingly random dots. What I will not do is try to describe in detail the events of the war in Ukraine. But I will certainly discuss it superficially.

Resources

This article will cover many topics that I have discussed in detail in the following articles. It would make sense to read them now, if you haven’t already read them:

- Discussion: What the Ukrainian Offensive could look like.

- Explanation of the concept of Combat Effectiveness.

- Thoughts about the destiny of Prigozhin.

- Thoughts about a potential Russian counteroffensive.

Ukrainian Offensive

Basics

Let’s start with the ongoing Ukrainian offensive. It developed exactly as predicted by BMA in terms of casualties and in terms of the kill ratio. I predicted that by the end of August the NATO-trained professional army will be destroyed. We are talking about some 70,000 men. I assume that my prediction will be off by a few days. As I write these words, the last Ukrainian brigade of the beforementioned professional army is being destroyed. I think we were very accurate on this.

Unfortunately, of course. That’s a disaster for Russia. Even though the Ukrainians are lost for the time being, there were a time were all of these people were Russians as well. Hence, why I am always referring to a Russian civil war. This is the reason why I decided a few months ago to not report in detail about this Ukrainian offensive. It is a slaughter on an epic scale.

Moreover, I have said that these 70,000 NATO-trained soldiers need to be destroyed to enable the path to peace. This is not something I wish for; it is only a dry, and of course sad, analysis of the facts on the ground. In the coming few hours or days the last NATO-trained offensive brigade will be destroyed and further actions can start the process to terminate this war. What do I mean by this? In short: Russian counteroffensives, Ukrainian collapse, etc. We will go later through these points.

I want to again take the opportunity to highlight that Russia is NOT going easily through all of this. Many people are reporting about the war as if Russia would destroy the Ukrainian army with ease, and without own losses. No. If Ukraine will have lost approx. 50-60,000 dead in this ongoing offensive, and the kill ratio is 1 Russian for 10 Ukrainians, then Russia will have lost some 5,500 in dead within 2-3 months in one particular battle. This is a small town. Imagine also all the funerals across Russia. They are not so visible because they are by far fewer and also spread over a larger population and country, but still, they are significant.

I do not write this to highlight that Russia has difficulties as well. Russia has. No, I write this, as always, to commemorate and respect the fallen soldiers. I consider it deeply disrespectful to report about the war, writing how easy Russia is killing Ukrainian armies and ignoring all the fallen. Rest in peace, soldiers. Well, of course Ukrainians as well, as long as they are not Nazis.

I can say that Ukraine achieved almost no territorial gains in the south over the course of the offensive. Ukraine gained some villages here and there which brought the Ukrainians right into Russian artillery fire bags and semi-cauldrons, but overall, we can consider the south as a big “Artemovsk (Bakhmut) on steroids”. Ukrainians kept feeding men and material in, and death and destruction came out. Again, I refuse to go into details because this is a Slavic tragedy.

I made a lot of predictions about the Ukrainian Offensive, and also about the Russian reaction. I think I can say that my predictions were accurate and at the same time this is sad. Nevertheless, I made one big mistake with regards to the Ukrainian offensive and I’m going to name and correct my mistake here. I’m talking about the avoidance of force-on-force battles by the Russian army.

In fact, I predicted, that Russia would dynamically retreat to the prepared defensive belts in order to keep Ukraine running through well prepared Russian defensive lines. Thereby increasing the causalities on the Ukrainian side and keeping their own casualties low. Remember the small town (approx. 5,500 people) in killed Russians? This would militarily be the right thing to do. For the Ukrainians as well, by the way. Instead of conducting suicidal offensives, they should have long before started a dynamic defensive approach, retreating while preparing all kinds of “surprises” for the Russians in the process.

Well, I made a mistake, which is something I try always to teach others not to do. 😊 I solely took the military aspect into consideration and not the geopolitical dimension. If Russia wants to put an end to the conflict, it needs to achieve a gradual end of the military supply by the West, but without military means. This, in order to avoid a conflict with NATO. And the best way to do this is to deny Ukraine further big media victories. Even if it means investing thousands of its own soldiers’ lives. In the big picture, an earlier end to the war means that the overall losses could be lower for Russia than the “invested lost lives”.

This eventually leads us to the situation that Russia is not only not avoiding force-on-force engagements with the Ukrainian army. No. Russia is not even retreating to the prepared lines of defense, but rather forward defending in the flexible defense zone in front of the prepared lines of defense.

Advantages:

• No Ukrainian victories to show to the West.

• This leads to domestic problems in the West for the justification of further support for the war. In other words, the American congress will have difficulty justifying further American taxpayer money for a lost cause. The official narrative, of course, is to help Ukraine regain its territories. Even though the real purpose is simply to harm (death and destruction) Russia (Russia and Ukraine together) to improve its own position in the world markets.

Disadvantages:

• Far more Russian casualties during the defensive battles.

• Elite Russian units experience serious attrition. Paratroopers and regular Russian army formations that are considered elite.

Well, let me conclude this chapter now very quickly. The Ukrainian main assault will likely be concluded within the next days. Then the offensive will officially be over. Currently, the last battles are being fought around the village of Rabotino, where in fact the Ukrainian offensive will be buried. Then, since Russia is not timeline-driven but milestone-driven, as explained on BMA almost a year ago, the next phase can begin. The Russian initiative.

Progression of Collapse

But before we come to that, I want to discuss another topic. A few months ago, I officially declared that according to the BMA definition, the collapse of Ukraine had begun. It was precisely at May 25, 2023, after the fall/liberation of Artemovsk. Most of my readers who are long-timers on BMA know that I’m firmly convinced that the end of the war will be triggered by a large scale and comprehensive Ukrainian collapse. Which will lead to the overall fall of Ukraine and an unconditional surrender. Similar to what Admiral Doenitz was forced to do after Hitler’s suicide.

Unfortunately, such a collapse takes time. It started in May and it will take many more months until its final conclusion. If the fall of Artemovsk was the trigger for the first phase of the collapse, then the imminent destruction of the western-trained professional army is the start of the next phase of the collapse.

After Ukraine ran out of highly motivated and ideologically confused volunteers, and is also now losing the best Western equipment, a new phase will start. I will call it the ISIS phase. Why ISIS? Because after the collapse of the professionally trained two army corps, Ukraine will be left mostly with forcefully mobilized, badly- or non-trained people, armed with small arms and Western equipment which is probably 40-50 years old.

This is a force that Russia will be able to roll up far more effectively, since Ukraine’s combat efficiency will be close to zero. The best weapon still left in the Ukrainian possession will be long range artillery, MLRS, and air launched missiles.

We learned in one of my articles that if the combat efficiency drops, you need many more people to achieve the same results. In other words, the casualty rates will skyrocket to achieve the same results. Which in turn means the “normal” mobilization process in Ukraine will not work any longer. It was more or less sufficient to just make up for the usual losses. But the rate of losses that Ukraine just experienced in their Offensive, and what follows in the consequent Russian counterinitiative (whatever that might be) will be catastrophic.

Ukrainian Mobilization

Which leads us directly to the next topic. Talks are beginning of a general mobilization in Ukraine. Talks are about the potential of approximately 3 million people. This is the best sign for the second stage of the Ukrainian collapse. The transition to the ISIS phase. There are neither equipment nor trained people left to resist the Russians. Since President (???) Zelensky is already firing all regional heads of the recruitment offices and restructuring the system, we can assume that they will actually try to conduct this general mobilization.

To stop the Russians from advancing, Ukraine will literally need to stop the Russians with their bodies. And they will need millions of bodies to prolong the war for another year. Millions of dead. A price the West is ready to pay in order to to kill as many Russians (and Ukrainians), and in the process to destroy as much infrastructure and industry as possible.

Well, in fact, the West will pursue this war crime/crime against humanity as far as possible. And this is the point where I try to calm people down. Even though I’m not fully convinced yet, I can’t imagine that the Ukrainian (Russian!) people will follow. They will consider the epically defeated Ukrainian offensive, with tens of thousands of dead people, and the parallel Russian offensive at Kupyansk, with its implications for the immediate future. They will think of the hundreds of thousands of overall dead (400,000) with the corresponding funerals all over the country, and the people will eventually begin to resist. How? That remains to be seen, but it certainly (hopefully?) will avoid the conscription of millions, and the consequent death.

Well, the uprising of either the people or some elements within the military should mark the third and last phase of the Ukrainian collapse.

As I mentioned many times, the West is winning big in this dimension. The West has achieved the goal to kill as many Russians (Ukrainians and Russians) as possible up to this point. If the war ends tomorrow, the West will be satisfied in that respect. If it ends after additional hundreds of thousands or even millions die, even better. The geopolitical and eventually the economic damage to Russia will be significant. Especially in the struggle for Russia to establish itself as a major player in the emerging world order.

Yes, Russia managed the transition and triggered it, but it certainly also wants to be one of the leaders in economic terms. This could be hindered if most resources are bogged down within Russia for reconstruction. Hundreds of thousands of dead and permanently disabled men are also missing from the workforce. Hundreds of thousands of children will never be born because of the dearth of healthy males (fathers) in the resulting population.

Russian Reaction

Basics

I made another mistake in one of my articles. I wrote that Ukraine will be ripe for a checkmate after the collapse of the professional Ukrainian army. The collapse appeared. The checkmating would, according to my article, be executed by encircling Kiev. I also admitted that this “prediction” would bring me a bloody nose. I made the prediction, as explained in the article, because of the fact that a prolongation of the conflict would increase the likelihood of an unwanted escalation between Russia and NATO to an unacceptable degree.

Hence, it was not a military analysis. It was (IS!) a human necessity to bring this war to an end. I also offered an alternative chain of events that follows more the military logic. Further, I said that if Russia did not conduct the encircling of Kiev, the second option would be a strategic but methodical Donbass and Zaporozhye offensive. As described above (Ukrainian Offensive), I predicted that Russia would continue operations as it had in the past, that is, Russia would preserve manpower by conducting tactical retreats when faced with force-on-force confrontations. Well, I need to admit that I have now made two mistaken predictions!

So, after the current collapse of the professional army I now don’t see ANY preparations that would be necessary to conduct large scale enveloping moves around Kiev. This scenario is currently physically impossible. In addition, Russia has stood and fought ferociously in the gray zone in Zaporozhye, even before the first formal line of defense. I begged for that bloody nose and I received it. Fine. 😊 At least I feel good with this one, since I expected it and I still stick with my argument that an end to the war needs to be triggered NOW, for the sake of the whole of human kind. Triggering now doesn’t mean that it will be ended now, but within a reasonable time, a year at the most.

In the beforementioned article I was referring to these two scenarios according to my own analysis, and based on both military and geopolitical considerations. In the meanwhile, I finally have more or less clear signs, comments, and sources that gives me a clearer picture. A picture based on tangible indications. Let’s go through them step by step.

Will there be so called big arrow offensives? Increasingly I would say they won’t be needed. Encircling Kiev, which still could be required sometime next year (even though I hope not), would be some form of a big arrow offensive. But what exactly is necessary to happen to trigger the final Ukrainian collapse? Two main things:

1. The Ukrainian losses (killed) need to be maintained over ~1,000 dead/day. At this rate recruitment, training and equipment can’t keep up with the losses. The Force Generation Cycle would collapse. The result is the beforementioned ISIS type army with light weapons and poor- or no training. In case of a popular uprising, the stream of new recruits would end.

2. The massive overstretching of logistics. Hence, massive attacks and inflicted casualties on many far distant frontline sections. BMA defined in January five battle theatres. I think they are still fully valid and they represent the way to overstretch Ukrainian logistics, especially as the supplies from the West are ebbing.

Directions

Through all the discussions, sources, and public comments by important and influential people I think we can now clearly see the following strategy. On the one hand, Russia is finishing off the Ukrainian professional army in the South. This is almost done and will be concluded within the next days, at the latest by the end of September. On the other hand, as soon as the Ukrainians run out of men and material in the South, Russia will increase the pressure by an order of magnitude in Kharkov while maintaining and increasing the pressure on all five theatres of war. Sumy (cross border), Kharkov, Seversk, Ugledar and Zaporozhye. Nevertheless, I’m not entirely sure whether Ugledar really will be continued or the attention might fully shift to Adveevka instead.

That President (???) Zelensky is preparing a general mobilization is telling me that the full collapse is not far away and the big push will not be needed. Things could, if they run well, manage themselves solely through the massively increased pressure through the two abovementioned vectors of “collapse”. Hence, I want to reiterate one fact. To re-take the densely populated Donetsk oblast, Russia will need to take Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. A frontal assault from the East is difficult because there are a lot of small villages and towns around. Moreover, this direction has been fortified for a long time. To take the Donbass back, Russia will need to come back to Izyum and encircle Kramatorsk and Slavyansk from the North and the West. Which was the initial plan, a year ago. This plan still stands and will be executed. I assume that the collapse of Ukraine will occur somewhere along the path to Kramatorsk from the North.

Hence, the Ukraine-Collapse-Path where the collapse will occur along the way is approximately the following: Kupyansk and Izyum will need to be taken. From which side Russia will come, I don’t know. I’m sure the Russian General Staff figured out a proper operational plan for this. After that the attention will shift south in direction of Kramatorsk. Will Russia need to completely defeat Ukraine in Kramatorsk, or will Ukraine collapse earlier? I don’t know. We will see.

Moreover, I also see confirmations regarding the encirclement of Kiev. But not as predicted by myself (mistake) now after the collapse of the NATO-trained professional army, but rather after the general collapse of the overall Ukrainian army somewhere within the first six months of 2024. To secure Kiev during the collapse. Fine. Kiev is a Russian city it must/should not be destroyed.

Now, that I have tangible “evidence” for such an outcome I have calmed slightly. It will have the same effect as my proposed Kiev first strategy, to bring the war to an end within a reasonable time to end the threat to human kind. Considering this dimension, everything is fine again for me and you can take this scenario as an official BMA analysis and stance. The Kiev first approach was my logical demand because of the threat to human kind which is unacceptable.

Of course, the overall picture is devastating. Even though Ukraine is now in full collapse mode, there is the potential for a full one million Ukrainian (dead and critically wounded) soldiers until the conclusion. Depending on how long the West can keep “Ukraine” artificially alive to keep killing itself.

Everyone in the Ukrainian government and in the West is aware of that fact. What now follows is the creation of a new narrative, why Ukraine has lost the war and who is to blame. It is too early to speculate but most likely President Trump could be a potential candidate. I will discuss this issue in another political article in more detail.

Now I want to remind you about the following:

Germany started to collapse in 1943 after The Battle of Kursk. (You might want to chose another battle but all these battles were in 1943 so it doesn’t matter). After the start of the collapse millions of Germans and Soviets died until Admiral Doenitz signed the unconditional capitulation with the Soviets.

Russian Offensive Potential

Since the beginning of the conflict I searched all available information for indications where and how logistics are being set up by Russia. This always gives me a very good picture of what and where operations might be planned. Especially if we talk about offensives. Maybe the single most important factor in war is logistics. Especially in offensive actions. Many people are counting how many T-90 Proryv tanks Russia can churn out per month. Of course, that is an important number.

Now the Proryv tank is designed for offensive operations. That is why it is called “Breakthrough”. One tank alone can’t break through anything. And if for example a tank regiment breaks through something, e.g., a given fortification, it can’t exploit that before enemy reinforcements arrive if proper mobile logistics units are not in place. The tanks need to be refueled and reloaded. The crew perhaps need to rest or be replenished if losses occurred, etc.

Or better, if the unit strength allows it, the breaching formation retreats and according to doctrine exploiting formations move in. What if a formation is forced to travel tens or hundreds of kilometers because the enemy retreated? Usually, one would be forced to exploit that if the flanks are secured. Hence, the tank and motorized rifle formations, which could consist of hundreds or thousands of people will need to be supplied by mobile logistics which moves further with the advancing formations. These are the requirements for deep penetration operations, exactly as we saw it in Phase 1 of the war.

Well, my research is focused on equipment for such operations. And that’s exactly the reason why I keep saying for the last year that big arrow operations currently are impossible! At least I couldn’t find any evidence that such equipment is either stored or being brought into position in any relevant bordering region. Of course, and I’m aware of this fact, I could completely miss the movements, since Russia would decide to do everything top secret and concealed. But I doubt this version since through all available reconnaissance means, I assume Russia would not make the effort to conceal such movements because it would be in vain. At least with regards to NATO. A guy at home, like myself, could always miss such moves. Even if they are being done overtly.

Hence, what are the conclusions of my research?

1. There is no offensive logistics potential in place (maybe in warehouses) in Belarus on the Ukrainian borders.

2. Nor in the Donetsk region.

3. There are indications that such equipment could be in preparation in Russia in regions bordering Kharkov. Hence, the current Kupyansk offensive could be only one out of several offensive vectors in Kharkov. Always keep in mind that we are not talking about big arrows, but vectors of pressure with the aim of binding and attriting the Ukrainians into collapse.

4. The other vector could clearly be Zaporozhye. Even though I assume that the main direction of pressure will be Kharkov, we could clearly see here supportive moves to bind and overstretch Ukrainian logistics.

Always keep in mind that NATO’s logistics mission in Ukraine is the worst nightmare for logistics planners that I can imagine. Shipping all the stuff to dynamic hotspots across the whole country, straight into enemy territory where the enemy has a superiority in everything, is both impressive and incredibly costly/difficult.

Maskirovka

Basics

First of all, Russia is in an existential struggle. In fact, if it loses, we all are going to die. This is dictated by Russian nuclear doctrine. Remember, Zaporozhye, Kherson, Donetsk and Lugansk are Russian territories according to the Russian constitution.

Further, Russia has lost a significant number of soldiers in the SMO. The number of killed could well be around 50,000. Plus, the permanently disabled wounded which also could be around 50,000 people. Above that, there is a potential that both numbers could double if the conflict would be fought out “to the last Ukrainian” until next summer (2024).

This is far more than significant. In fact, it is the Great Patriotic War Part 3.

Now consider that Russia is very well known for their deception techniques, which are called “Maskirovka”. Next, try to imagine to what degree of “Maskirovka” Russia is ready to go within the framework of another Patriotic War. I think we can expect everything, because it is existential for Russia. Hence, I absolutely do not accept arguments of Western analysts, even though I respect many of them tremendously, that some events would not qualify as Maskirovka since they would be far too complicated.

I had many discussions in the last few months with high ranking Serbian ex-militaries regarding the Russian Maskirovka. And there is an absolute consensus: Russia is engaged in high-profile Maskirovka activities on every level. Geopolitically, militarily, diplomatically etc.

Well, the goal of these activities is mostly to distract the Western resources and logistics over a broad geographical area. We are talking not only about Ukraine but about continents. Thereby forcing the West to commit resources “just in case”, in a variety of places instead of concentrating everything on Ukraine. Which was the case roughly until the end of 2022.

I won’t go now through all events that I consider as part of the Russian Maskirovka. Instead I will focus on a few which I consider as geopolitically highly relevant.

Prigozhin

Prigozhin is dead. This is a logical and deterministic consequence. I predicted his death in this article. After the events that have been connected to him, there was no conceivable chain of events where he would continue to live. I explained that in the abovementioned article very well. It has to do with credibility of the Russian state and with deterrence against similar events from other “strong personalities” that are active in Russia. Well, determinism played out and he is dead. The question indeed is, who killed him?

First of all, I want to make this absolutely clear. President Vladimir Putin killed the character Yevgeny Prigozhin. Rightfully so, for the abovementioned reasons. Now, the whole story is far more sophisticated and multi-layered. I will go through it step by step.

No, President Putin did not order the assassination of Prigozhin. That would cause by far too much trouble and further internal problems. Moreover, President Putin would never accept the death of three Russian civilians (plane crew) and above all, it was very bad timing. The moment when BRICS meet in South Africa. Other stakeholders carried out the assassination.

But how did President Putin kill Prigozhin, when he neither ordered his execution nor did he (Russian agencies) execute it? Simply, he deprived Prigozhin of the security umbrella and guarantees of the Russian state. He didn’t need to do anything more than sit back and wait until someone, and the list is gigantic who could actually have done it, kills him. That is very comfortable. Everything was prepared to incorporate Wagner right after his death back into the Russian army. I’ll explain that in the following section.

But who killed him actually? Well, for me the indications are clearly showing that the West killed him. The pattern is clear. Commit a serious blow to Vladimir Putin domestically and geopolitically. Domestically, because the plane crashed within Russia and killed Russian citizens and geopolitically because the event took place during the crucial BRICS meeting in South Africa. I think that President Putin imagined Prigozhin’s demise slightly differently and more comfortable to him. 😊

Would that be an act of war against Russia? Well, we crossed that red line long ago. Since British services orchestrate strike against Russian infrastructure within Russia, that ship has already sailed. And the blame can always be shifted to the Ukrainians. Nevertheless, since Prigozhin was deprived of the state protection, we can not even talk about an act of war. It clearly, if evidence surfaces, would be a significant event which would cause serious diplomatic problems in peace times. But all these thresholds were crossed long ago. Remember, a Russian official was not killed, but a civilian. Rather, several Russian civilians on a “private trip” were killed. It is significant, but not a Casus Belli from my point of view.

Ignore the killing? No, if I’m right and Western (US? French? Ukrainian? UK?) services were involved, and Russia finds evidence, I’m sure scores will be settled accordingly and not publicly.

The theory that it was an incident is not probable from my point of view. The whole Wagner leadership dies at the day of the BRICS summit. The coincidence would be by far too high. It absolutely is the Western pattern to embarrass Vladimir Putin during geopolitically important events. That goes back to at least 2008. Unfortunately, Yevgeny Prigozhin needed to die. I stand by everything I wrote about him in the past. Most people folded instantly after the coup and changed everything. I’m absolutely capable of admitting failure. I did it in this article already, twice. Prigozhin clearly, and I can’t cite all of my sources about that, has been a top-level intelligence asset of at least one Russian intelligence agency. He fulfilled his duty for his country in countless occasions and he was a great Russian patriot. Above all, and this is significant to understand, he WAS Russia.

What do I mean? Since he was a high-profile (strategic) Russian intelligence asset it is absolutely safe to assume that his whole business empire had been enabled by the Russian state and its intelligence services. With a purpose. He was allowed to built that empire, to cater the Russian state and the military and in return he would need to do XYZ with this. For example, spying on state guests and counter-espionage within the Russian army. (These are only assumptions).

Essentially, much like in the United States. Almost all big-tech companies and their billionaire founders have been enabled by the American state with a purpose. They are allowed to rise and spread over the whole world with the purpose of collecting data of most human beings and feeding the information directly into the NSA “Big Data Business Intelligence” servers. The value of the data is by far more than the billions that the puppet billionaires earn for their “services”.

Did Prigozhin want to coup away the Russian military, or even state leadership? I still don’t know. But three things are certain for me:

1. He was a Russian patriot. If he wanted to do that, then it was only because “he lost his path” and thought he knew better how to defeat Ukraine. Essentially, put aside the restructuring of the global order and focus solely on defeating/destroying Ukraine. With him as the head. He was not an idiot. If that really was the case, then he thought that he had political allies in Moscow to open up the doors to Moscow. Obviously, that was wrong. Which leads me to the conclusion that the GRU was fully aware of his plans and let him proceed to achieve X during the process. Which would be hunting traitors and spies and do Y with Wagner. I will come back to that later.

2. He was an intelligence asset. And even if he went rogue, he still has been used as one, without his consent. See point 1. So even IF he went rogue, the GRU continued to use him for further tasks. I will discuss this in the next section.

3. Prigozhin has been highly connected in Africa. I hear constantly that he continued to do private military business in Africa in parallel with the Russian leadership. Or with concurrence. Well, that’s neither how Russia nor how Slavs work in general. Especially not in wartime. I don’t believe that Prigozhin tried to do “his own” business in Africa after the coup. I might be wrong, but that’s not how we work. Being in concurrence with the state during wartime. Some do/did, and most do not have a happy ending.

I think the big geostrategic ploy that the west initiated against Russia by encircling it and turning all its former allies against it is a game that can be played by two. Currently, (West)Africa is turning against its Western colonial masters, and that is unacceptable for the western masters. I have no evidence, but still I have reasons to believe that the GRU played a significant role in this and thereby Wagner (Prigozhin) as well. More about that later.

The last thing I want to say, no matter whether Prigozhin truly wanted to coup the Russian leadership away or not, he significantly contributed to the Russian, and thereby to the global, liberation cause. He indeed IS a Russian hero. Rest in peace, Yevgeny, and please try not to coup away the ruler of Hell… 😊

Conclusion:

Even if the events around Prigozhin are not HIS Maskirovka (I have no idea), it certainly is from my point of view the Maskirovka of the GRU. Only not his death; his blood is on other hands. And I absolutely doubt that he ever worked for a foreign service, even though he could have used foreign services by baiting them. Prigozhin was a patriot, who would have preferred the hard way in Ukraine and in Syria as well. He lacked the overall geopolitical bird view which led him to some wrong decisions in his life. Everyone knows that: “I would have made that better!!!”.

Wagner

What is Wagner? Wagner is like an onion. It is an organization with many layers. To make it more understandable, let’s assume that Wagner consists of three layers. Let’s go through them:

1. The core:

   The inner circle of Wagner consists of highly specialized and professional ex special-forces and intelligence officers. They were established by the GRU just before the first war in Donbass, 2014. And their first larger use has been in Donbass. Since, officially, Russia couldn’t send troops or advisers, Wagner went in and helped organizing the structure of the Donbass army and helped to fight in critical battles.

   The focus of the first layer, the core, is mainly coordination, leadership, and advisory. As far as I can say, layer one consists only of several hundred people.

   We can also say that the actual Wagner is layer one.

2. Special operations:

   Layer two is recruited from former special forces (VDV/Spetsnaz etc.). It is Russia’s gray army that conducts special operations all across the world. Since it’s not covered by Russian law, of course it is in the gray zone. As seen in Ukraine, Syria, and Africa.

   This layer consists of a few thousand people. I doubt that they are more than 3,000.

3. Field army:

   Newly created for the Ukrainian war. Wagner’s field army. Recruited out of worldwide volunteers and prisoners. There is a potential that, at its peak, this layer had approximately 30,000 people. We are talking about actual assault detachments — expendables. Therefore, generous pay and other benefits were provided as well.

Since layer one consists of dozens of former GRU officers, there is no chance in the world that GRU did not have full information at any point in time of Wagner’s activities. This applies to the coup as well. I do not say that the GRU ordered that coup. I don’t know. I just say that the GRU knew about that coup and capitalized on it. Again, had Prigozhin been involved or not? I don’t know. But he was certainly used, if he had not been involved, by the GRU.

Wagner’s field army became too well known during the battle of Artemovsk. It was unlikely that a parallel, apparently private, structure was able to establish itself separately from the actual army. But through the battle of Artemovsk it did. This has happened in many of our Slavic wars. We Serbs had, for example, Arkan’s Tigers as well as others. And they also could not be allowed to establish themselves as parallel military structures next to the actual army. Hence, such structures need to be broken up and incorporated into the actual army.

Willingly or unwillingly (I still don’t know what actually happened) Prigozhin provided the following gifts to the Russian state:

1. Gave a very good and visible reason for the Russian Government and the Russian public to start the dismantling process of the official Wagner organization. Layer 3. I’m sure that layer 1, and to some extent layer 2, will somehow build the foundation for a new GRU international strike force. I’m just not sure whether it will again be gray or this time entirely black. I tend to believe it will be again grey, but this time under the full leadership of the GRU and most likely without a real brand. It remains to be seen. These things are currently completely unpredictable.

   Bottom line is: This was a justification for the dismantling, re-integration and re-organization process.

2. Enabling a large-scale traitor and spy hunt across Russia. All these people sparked like a Christmas tree in anticipation of an imminent coup in Moscow.

3. Most importantly, Wagner and Prigozhin had been the biggest living and walking carrot for the West since at lease January 2023. Remember Artemovsk? Intentionally or not, all eyes focused on Prigozhin and Wagner. First, during the coup. Second, during their “re-settlement” to Belarus.

   From my point of view this was a distraction for the events in Africa. I will explain that later in more detail.

I think Wagner is gone now. It, at least layer 3 (public branch), fulfilled its purpose and as we saw right after Prigozhin’s death, the dismantling began. The whole top-level leadership died as well, which defined it as “Wagner”. See Dimitry Utkin, who actually has been “Wagner”. He is dead. I assume that the Layer 1 and 2 organization will get a new internal GRU name. Probably, in honor of the past, it could be called by the public “Wagner” in the future. That would especially help African leaders and the African public with recognition.

Surovikin

I have no idea about General Surovikin. Has he been involved in the mutiny? I have no idea. What I certainly can say, he will be used of course further on. Either within Wagner or to build up new Russian armies (around Finland) in the rear or to command a potential upcoming Russian offensive in Kharkov. I absolutely don’t believe that he was sacked. But again, I have no idea, I admit that.

Africa

The West never managed to truly decolonize Africa. Not only Africa but all other states, that weren’t strong enough to break free, like India. Nominally, and according to international law, there are no colonies any longer. But consider this:

• If you make a government completely dependent on yourself, it is the same as a colonialization. You don’t want to comply? You will have this and that economic or social disadvantages and the public will kill you.

• In many of the West African (and other) states, some branches of terror organizations are coincidentally present. And of course, the Western colonial masters need to maintain military bases in these countries to “fight ISIS”. Imagine how I do a facepalm as I write this. Well, the military presence is of course secured.

• Do not EVER allow these countries and people to develop. They could develop the idea of independence and suddenly dictate prices of their resources like the ones on the world markets. That would massively destroy wealth in the Western countries. Much like the decoupling from Russian resources currently is doing.

In fact, Africans HAVE TO live in poverty and be constantly subjected to small wars and civil wars against one another. They must be kept down, not getting education or infrastructure, etc. They are only there to provide cheap labor and resources to their Western masters. In fact, the infrastructure for resource processing is well maintained, the rest is as it is. In some African countries better and in others, worse.

It is easy to do that to Africa. Up until fairly recently, racism was official policy in Western states. It was freely possible to call a spade a spade. Now that it has been forbidden for several decades, it is simply continued by unofficial channels. See the three points mentioned above. The only thing the West needs to do, to exploit the (from their point of view) black “sub humans”, is to keep them underdeveloped and poor.

Of course, I fully support, and I am happy, that Africa has risen and tries to free itself. If Africa manages to free itself, it will start to develop and get rich over time. That’s the right thing to do. If you are a European (like myself) or an American, keep in mind: If you just nodded your head and agreed with my assessment, a de-colonialization of Africa would mean a serious drop in all our wealth. We can be “wealthy” in Europe only because we massively exploit Africa, Asia, and South America. As long as they stay poor, we can be far wealthier; that’s the Western equilibrium of hegemony. Hence, if you agree with me, you also need to understand what the freeing of Africa means to your own lifestyle and wealth.

But how could Africa become independent? Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali are showing how. They are kicking the Western colonial governors (Presidents) out, and demanding the withdrawal of Western diplomats and militaries. They are instead letting Wagner clean out the artificially created terrorist threat, which can be done very effectively and quickly. Niger of course was a red line because of its natural resources, which are tremendously important to the Western economies. Western Africa in general and Niger in particular mustn’t fall (become independent) because it would be another very big nail in the West’s coffin.

This is where the GRU and Wagner come into play. I can very well imagine, even though I’m not an Africa expert and I have no evidence, that the GRU is behind the coups in West Africa, that free one country after another from former Western colonial governors. Remember the Wagner distractions in Belarus and the consequent coup in Niger? I hardly can see a coincidence here.

Will there be war? As I said, I’m NOT an Africa expert. That’s why I’m not qualified to make a professional prediction here. My personal opinion is the following:

1. Africa mustn’t fall for the West. Not only because the West will lose access to cheap resources. No. Far worse is that China and Russia would develop these countries and then profit from trade with the newly created middle class in those countries. A plus for China and Russia is a red flag for the West.

2. I assume that ECOWAS alone can’t achieve the goals set by the West. I see the assembled ECOWAS army, at least what is known to the public, as totally insufficient against Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso (not to mention Algeria). Moreover, a big war in West Africa would trigger MASSIVE refugee streams to Europe. A real evening out of the wealth between the EU (not Europe, we Serbs are not part of this exploiting scheme) and Africa. 😊

3. If these three countries succeed with independence, many more African countries will kick out their colonial masters as well.

What I want to say is the following: In fact, the West mustn’t let the Africans go into independence because another massive drop in welfare in the West would trigger even more Western people to protest against their governments. The danger of civil war arises. On the other hand, ECOWAS doesn’t seem to be too determined to do the dirty work of their masters. At least it won’t be sufficient. Western troops most likely would need to help in order to achieve the goals. The risks are immeasurable. Again, a continental and inner ECOWAS uprising could follow. The refugee streams would be on a new level, not seen until now. And they would need to cross the Mediterranean or Turkey. Which would cause massive problems with Turkey and increase the probability for civil war in the EU and/or the end of the EU itself.

In fact, the current situation is catastrophic for the West. And it is the PERFECT distraction by Russia and China for the West. I don’t know what the West and ECOWAS will eventually do. But everything they do is catastrophic for them. If you play chess, such a situation resolves to a classic checkmate for you.

Again, listen very carefully to me, especially if you are Italian, Spanish, French, or German. You might agree that these countries should be free. And I fully agree with that statement. I pray for these people. After centuries of being treated and exploited racially as sub humans, they finally should get their freedom and prosperity! But know well, what is currently happening will eventually tremendously destroy the !EU!ropean welfare. I’m not telling you that to reconsider your opinion. You should not do that. I’m telling you that to inform you, so that you can prepare for what is to come.

I have outlined two different scenarios which are both catastrophic for the West. Losing Africa would be an economical disaster. Fighting a war to get it back to the colonial status could explode the whole of West Africa if not the whole of Africa itself. The ensuing refugee streams would be disastrous for the West. In reality the West will try to find an intermediary solution, and maneuver through the storm. We will see how that works out.

In the big picture, Ukraine is a big fat sparkling middle finger aimed at Russia by the West. And Russia is forced to take the bitter pill and fight its own people (Ukrainians). There is no other way. It looks like Africa is the Russian and Chinese answer to the West. A big fat sparkling middle finger. The West will need to eat it and there is no good solution to it at all. And Africa is only the beginning. If you act as a global hegemon you of course have colonies everywhere. Colonies which can be turned against you. Which WILL be turned against you.

Here is my conclusion. I did not expect this, but I’m not an African expert. I need to slightly change my assessment about World War 3; I was not thinking broadly enough. It now appears to me that World War 3 has already begun. But it is not what all of us have anticipated— a clash between titans on the field which would kill us all. In other words, Russia and China against NATO and the U.S. Not yet; that can still evolve. But for now, it looks to me as if the “Wars of Liberation” (remember the resistance against Napoleon?) have actually begun.

Which means there is a possibility that all over the world, wars between nations that want to be free of Western influence could break out against Western vassals (ECOWAS) or the Western countries themselves. Resulting in a classic global overstretching of the West until its demise. Since the events in Africa, I started to see far more hotspots worldwide where either hot or “warm” conflicts could break out against vassals and countries that want to be free and join the new BRICS system.

The Western “diplomacy” (it is a shame calling it that) is running frantically all around the world and threatening every single country to not seek independence from the Western (financial/hegemonial) system, “or else”. This, as I said, could lead to either small (local) or even regional (West Africa) conflicts worldwide.

Western Successes

Basics

First of all, I want to highlight the following: The West would never let Ukraine win or achieve territorial gains against Russia. Not only the old Russian territories but also the newly joined constitutional territories in the former Ukraine. Why? I explain that numerous times. Then we all would die. There is no interest for that in the West. For some time, and I explained that as well, the West tried to trigger an internal collapse in Russia where it could take over protests (as it always does) and insert its own protest leader and take over the leadership in Russia. Thereby avoiding the activation of a nuclear retaliatory strike against the West.

Well, that’s still the hope. The West adjusts its strategy steadily according to the situation on the ground. But as long as there is a stable and unchallenged government AND supportive public opinion in Russia, the West would NEVER allow Ukraine to achieve any territorial gains which would be significant. Provided, of course, that Ukraine would even have the ability to do that, which it has not.

For example, if the West would have provided far more and better weapons far earlier, including trained personnel, then Russia would simply have increased its own resources to the war. Russia currently is fighting with “sufficient” resources to achieve the goals of the SMO. It clearly does not fight with its full military potential, which currently is NOT needed as long as Ukraine keeps killing itself in a concerted way.

Well, many words to say one simple truth. The West is currently intentionally killing Ukraine. They know it will eventually go back into Russia, at least a big part of it. The rest will be shared between its neighbors, which is a big poison pill for the EU. 😊

Storing men and materiel in all relevant industrial and infrastructural buildings ensures that Russia will be forced to destroy it. Which only forces it to re-build, especially in the parts that will go to Russia (From West of Kiev down to and including Odessa and the border to Transnistria). Let as many Ukrainians and Russians kill each other as possible. Remember the poison pill that Russia is forced to swallow?

Well, this scorched earth policy WITHOUT a military value is a war crime and a crime against humanity. Moreover, outright murder.

This is already known. I have written it numerous times. I just wanted to highlight the additional fact that the West keeps Ukraine in the game but with the clear intention that it definitely cannot win anything tangible. Its only purpose is solely depleting itself against an also self-depleting Russia.

This clearly works and it is a vector of victory for the West. One should only keep in mind that the grand counter-strategy AGAINST the West is currently playing out simultaneously as well. See Africa, BRICS, De-Dollarization and the struggle for independence of many countries worldwide.

Next, I want to discuss several other vectors of success of the West.

Moscow City and Airports

The “Ukrainian” drone attacks against Moscow City are not worthless. Many consider them as totally useless pinpricks. In terms of direct damage, they are.

The problem lies somewhere else. These pinprick attacks also cause the following to happen:

• They force Russia to divert its limited resources away from the Ukrainian battlefield to all kinds of infrastructure and civilian facilities all across south-west Russia. The Russian government is obliged to protect its citizens. Even if from time-to-time a few civilians die here or there, that is unbearable. That would create protest potential within the civilian population. Not instantly, but over time.

• Hence, a huge number of air defense assets and anti-drone weapons, which would be crucial to cover the 1,000 miles frontline in Ukraine, needs to be diverted to all kinds of civilian and military facilities all across south-west Russia.

• The attacks on both civilian and military airports in a considerable depth of Russia shows that air defense assets and radars need to be diverted. And believe me, not only are the assets limited but far more importantly, the highly qualified operators of these assets are limited and they are needed at the front line.

Russia can cope with that; I only want to highlight to you WHY the West is doing these pinpricks. The West is not dumb, even if many would want to hear that. The strategy is correct, with the limited resources, Ukraine has for this kind of diversion. Remember, logistics is everything and diversion is a means to overstretch the enemy logistics. Which leads me to the second vector.

Russian Oil Depots

“Ukraine” is successfully attacking from time-to-time Russian Oil depots, pipelines and other infrastructure. Especially on Crimea and the Black Sea region. These are also pinpricks but one should not dismiss them. At the beginning there were only several of them. But over time a considerable number of Oil storages/depots in and around Crimea have been destroyed. It’s not about the Oil or fuel. Russia has enough of those resources (more than enough). It is about storing enough within an operational distance of the front line and Crimea as well. Storing it is the basis for using it in a rational way on the battlefield.

Now, the Russian infrastructure, exactly as the Ukrainian one is highly redundant due to Soviet thinking. Which is good. Still, these pinpricks put stress on the civilian side. The army will always have enough oil and fuel. Problems arise if the civilian sector will need to be cannibalized, for example on Crimea, Krasnodar or Rostov to be able to provide enough to the Army. We are NOT yet there. But if the conflict continues for a lengthy time and the Ukrainian long-range attacks increase, as they do, such a situation COULD arise. Which of course again contributes to the strategy of trying to collapse the Russian leadership. It is in vain, but still, I want to highlight that the strategy is NOT dumb.

The logistics complicates with destroyed storage facilities. The problem is, that if such storage is destroyed, it can’t be rebuilt very quickly. Such big facilities take some time to be built. And the ecological remediation that is necessary before rebuilding is daunting. The soil needs to be cleaned before the reconstruction can start. Even during wartime, I can imagine that such a process could take a good year, but I’m not entirely sure. And that assumes that enough construction capacities are available, since a whole lot of other infrastructure projects are in process. You see, again, logistics.

Again, to protect such facilities one needs air defense radars, air defense equipment, anti-drone equipment, AND trained operators. Widely stretched over hundreds of potential targets in south-west Russia. I can tell you, that task is pure horror. The strategy of “Ukraine” (the West of course) here is not a bad one. Both parties try to stretch each other thin geographically.

Further Topics

Nicaragua and Cuba

There are ever more reports that some kind of deployment of Chinese and/or Russian military units is in the process or will be done in the near future. I did not have the time to research on that but I certainly will do that and see what the probabilities are. IF it would be done, it would of course be another move on the global chessboard. I won’t go deeper here. I will come back when I have collected more information.

BRICS Oil

Well, the latest BRICS summit enlarged BRICS by another six states. I won’t go too deep into that here. This article is already too long, and I think this topic deserves a discussion of its own.

Nevertheless, the enlargement is significant. Especially with Iran and Saudi Arabia. It is so beautiful, after decades of “divide and conquer” and the subsequent deadly wars triggered by the West, to finally see a reversal. People coming together and collaborating for the common peace and prosperity. It makes me very happy.

Well, BRICS now controls almost 80% of the global Oil supplies. In the first stage it will start to accept currencies other than the Dollar. Which has already started by Saudi Arabia accepting Yuan for payment. This will free most nations worldwide of the need to hold billions of Dollars to be able to pay for their energy. They will be able to pay with other currencies. This is a brutal fire accelerator for the de-dollarization, which will be the final nail in the West’s coffin. The rollout of the system will take another 3-6 years but after it is done the West is done with it. This will be the topic to cover in Economics and Empires 6.

Keep in mind, the West in general, and the United States in particular, will try to extinguish all the emerging fires worldwide. In most cases, they will do so with threats of sanctions. In other cases, with tools of color revolutions, if after the thin stretching, enough CIA regime-changers are available. And last but not least, with the threat of direct military action.

Remember the “Wars of Liberation” that are currently going on? It could be a very dangerous situation currently for Iran and Saudi Arabia. Above all other fires that are currently burning the Western empire, Saudi Arabia and Iran having peace is by far the worst threat to the United States. I know, it is perverse, that having peace is a threat for someone, but that’s where we are.

We can expect that before January 1, 2024, there will be a massive pressure campaign against Saudi Arabia to not join BRICS and return to hostilities against Iran. Diplomatic, economic and military pressure. At the same time the West will try to use the well-known leverages in the middle-east to pressure Iran into a war, which would destroy its economic potential. The pressure of course will not end after the accession of these two countries to BRICS, it will only increase. In fact, this is a highly dangerous situation.

I would not even be TOO MUCH surprised if we witness some kind of change of the Saudi policy after some kind of pressure from the US. There is more then enough dirt hidden in Saudi Arabia that could be used as leverage against MBS. Fortunately, the reverse is true as well… 😊

I will continue this discussion in another Article.

[i] Edited by Piquet (EditPiquet@gmail.com)