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Great article as usual. In my own reason article....
julianmacfarlane.substa… I argues from a similar, although not identical point of view. Geopolitics is very much about "optics" these days--and the October 7 attack was strategic in this sense because it provoked an emotional, knee-jerk overreaction from the Zionists which makes their e…
Great article as usual. In my own reason article....
https://julianmacfarlane.substack.com/p/terrorist-attack-or-strategic-victory I argues from a similar, although not identical point of view. Geopolitics is very much about "optics" these days--and the October 7 attack was strategic in this sense because it provoked an emotional, knee-jerk overreaction from the Zionists which makes their essentially genocidal intentions clear to the entire world-- and US support for this,
Message?
No one is safe.
US carriers, submarines, and NATO support in the Mediterranean are militarily meaningless. The SMO has demonstrated the inadequacy of NATO military technologies and strategies – and this attempt to impress does the opposite. The war will not widen or escalate because the Americans have just put themselves at risk. Both the Israelis and the Americans are casualty adverse. If the SMO has taught us anything it is that urban warfare takes time and it's costly. In the case of underground fortification – it takes even more time. Hamas is at 20 years to build one of the most sophisticated underground military systems ever-- with 300 km of tunnels and three levels, impressively distributed. No, gas won't work. Water won't work.
So the US and Israel are caught between a rock and a hard place.
At the same time they have alienated a sizable chunk of the global Jewish community.
Hello Julian. Thank you very much. I missed you here :))
Great article BTW. As always, recommendable.
I only hope that all of this madness won't spiral out of control...
Thanks Alex. I was thinking of writing about your last article which I hope everyone will read. Trouble is there is so much in it – not to mention the other articles which are the framework. So it takes time for my little mind to digest. Working on it though. Of course I don't agree with everything you write. I don't agree with everything I write also – LOL
Julian, you certainly don't have a little mind.
Your forensic work is exceptional. Thanks for that.
And I think that is the strength of the independent media. To not agree to everything the others write and say. But to have independent and free opinions. That's our strength. As opposed to the MSM which is essentially solely writing the same stuff all over the board. So, it's entirely cool, that we have different views on some topics. Again, that's our strength.
"US carriers, submarines, and NATO support in the Mediterranean are militarily meaningless".
True in the sense that they cannot win a war. Unfortunately, they might all too easily start one. The Palestinians, Syrians, Lebanese, and even the Iranians are used to taking heavy casualties and having their property demolished.
The Americans aren't. If even one of their precious floating white elephants is bent, or sunk, they will raise Cain. There would be even more wailing and gnashing of teeth than after 9/11 - if that's imaginable.
The important question is: what would they do about it? I'm not an expert in abnormal psychology, so I don't know.
Full court press propaganda about how the people fighting us are evil, to dissuade analysis of their culpability. They won't be risking carriers in the Eastern Med again anytime soon. They know the UN won't play ball, but I would expect an attempt to construct a coalition ala the two Iraq wars and Afghanistan to punish the perpetrators and save Israel. It'll be up to the Europeans to talk them down. Evaluate the chances of someone in Europe growing some nuts and saying "no"?
I don't expect a nuclear release because that defeats the purpose of all this saber rattling and warfare.
I also highly doubt a nuclear exchange between the great powers.
Unfortunately, Samson is not entirely impossible, even though unlikely, yet.
I think at heart Israelis know that their country is doomed should a single warhead from Israel be used. When you use a deterrent, it stops being a deterrent and becomes a threat. Israel would become a great game of "bounce the rubble" at that point.
Doesn't stop them from threatening, though.