Great article as usual. In my own reason article....
https://julianmacfarlane.substack.com/p/terrorist-attack-or-strategic-victory I argues from a similar, although not identical point of view. Geopolitics is very much about "optics" these days--and the October 7 attack was strategic in this sense because it provoked an emotional, knee-jerk overreaction from the Zionists which makes their essentially genocidal intentions clear to the entire world-- and US support for this,
Message?
No one is safe.
US carriers, submarines, and NATO support in the Mediterranean are militarily meaningless. The SMO has demonstrated the inadequacy of NATO military technologies and strategies – and this attempt to impress does the opposite. The war will not widen or escalate because the Americans have just put themselves at risk. Both the Israelis and the Americans are casualty adverse. If the SMO has taught us anything it is that urban warfare takes time and it's costly. In the case of underground fortification – it takes even more time. Hamas is at 20 years to build one of the most sophisticated underground military systems ever-- with 300 km of tunnels and three levels, impressively distributed. No, gas won't work. Water won't work.
So the US and Israel are caught between a rock and a hard place.
At the same time they have alienated a sizable chunk of the global Jewish community.
Thanks Alex. I was thinking of writing about your last article which I hope everyone will read. Trouble is there is so much in it – not to mention the other articles which are the framework. So it takes time for my little mind to digest. Working on it though. Of course I don't agree with everything you write. I don't agree with everything I write also – LOL
Your forensic work is exceptional. Thanks for that.
And I think that is the strength of the independent media. To not agree to everything the others write and say. But to have independent and free opinions. That's our strength. As opposed to the MSM which is essentially solely writing the same stuff all over the board. So, it's entirely cool, that we have different views on some topics. Again, that's our strength.
"US carriers, submarines, and NATO support in the Mediterranean are militarily meaningless".
True in the sense that they cannot win a war. Unfortunately, they might all too easily start one. The Palestinians, Syrians, Lebanese, and even the Iranians are used to taking heavy casualties and having their property demolished.
The Americans aren't. If even one of their precious floating white elephants is bent, or sunk, they will raise Cain. There would be even more wailing and gnashing of teeth than after 9/11 - if that's imaginable.
The important question is: what would they do about it? I'm not an expert in abnormal psychology, so I don't know.
Full court press propaganda about how the people fighting us are evil, to dissuade analysis of their culpability. They won't be risking carriers in the Eastern Med again anytime soon. They know the UN won't play ball, but I would expect an attempt to construct a coalition ala the two Iraq wars and Afghanistan to punish the perpetrators and save Israel. It'll be up to the Europeans to talk them down. Evaluate the chances of someone in Europe growing some nuts and saying "no"?
I don't expect a nuclear release because that defeats the purpose of all this saber rattling and warfare.
I think at heart Israelis know that their country is doomed should a single warhead from Israel be used. When you use a deterrent, it stops being a deterrent and becomes a threat. Israel would become a great game of "bounce the rubble" at that point.
1. I don’t think Samson would show up. Even if the current Israeli government is confident and some are crazy the West (or even some in the US) along some sane ones will stop it getting there. You never know but I highly doubt it. Especially if ...
2. A defeat is inflicted on US forces in the Middle East. It will become clear at that point that big daddy can’t protect Israel anymore. Which will leave it the choice of reaching a negotiated peace or lose everything. Which would mean ...
3. A face saving option is unlikely. This is an existential moment for the West. They know it. Even Biden said it in his Oval Office speech (if you can even call it that). And we know their answer to every existential moment - more war. Also, if a face saving option is given their influence still remain even if diminished which they can use to try to derail or usurp the emerging world order. The other side knows that. Like Austin said “Russia needs to lose and look like it’s losing” - same thing just replace Russia with “the West”.
Unfortunately many (millions) people will die. Many died in unnecessary wars since WW2 ended. Hopefully this will bring about a sufficiently global and lasting peace that their unsolicited sacrifice will not be in vain.
One consideration about thermonuclear war that many people seem to overlook is that, unlike all previous wars, the public and even the political class will be entirely out of the loop. There is no need to build up support through the media and rousing speeches; nor to worry about how things will turn out. Strating a thermonuclear war is precisely analogous to cutting one's throat or jumping off a building - except that it results in death for all humans, not just the one who commits the deed.
Since I very much doubt if any of the players have any religious convictions, they don't even have to worry about the afterlife.
I don't think the sun and the moon give a toss, but otherwise it's fairly accurate. Human psychology is strange; why do some people rejoice so much in destruction and death?
Thanks for pointing out that I did not make myself entirely clear, mendo. It's always a compromise between explaining fully and keeping comments (fairly) short.
My only point is that it would be easier to start a thermonuclear war than a conventional one, because you don't have to plan for the future: there won't be one.
Nor do you really have to go through the tedious process of building up popular support for war - which can always be done, as Goering remarked, but takes time.
Since thermonuclear weapons can be launched instantly in case it becomes necessary to respond to a surprise attack, a political or military leader can start such a war quite easily. Provided he or she doesn't mind dying with everyone else, as thermonuclear war would kill everyone on earth.
In relation to the present state of affairs, that probably just means that we should expect thermonuclear war to be more likely than one might think. In his excellent book "The Doomsday Machine: Confessions of a Nuclear War Planner", Daniel Ellsberg related how, in about 1960, he was sent on a tour of inspection of US nuclear weapons in the Far East, and discovered to his horror that most of the elaborate safety precautions to prevent a rogue or mistaken launch had simply been disabled. In his view, the only priority of US officers in charge of thermonuclear weapons was to make absolutely sure that if the USA was attacked they would not fail to strike back.
In other words, Western thermonuclear weapons may be on a hair trigger.
> My only point is that it would be easier to start a thermonuclear war than a conventional one, because you don't have to plan for the future: there won't be one.
Well I for one plan to live out my Fallout-like post-nuclear-apocaliptic fantasies so as far as I'm concerned, there will be a future, and if any of the evildoers survive, WE'LL MAKE SURE THEY REGRET THEIR DECISION! I can't go into specifics, but suffice to say human body is very resilient and actually pretty hard to kill, if you catch my drift. ;)
That "other religion" is the bloodthirsty "Moloch" worship, I presume...
Western countries have allowed their economies to be taken over by "rentier" interests, which always "maximize shareholder value", which guts and bleeds the productive aspects of enterprise.
Classical economics sought to minimize rent-collection in all forms.
"Neoclassical" economics puts rent-collection into every little economic niche, impoverishing and hobbling productive enterprises.
The US did not do that in the past. Countries like China and Germany largely copied what the US did in the "Fordist-capitalism" years.
"All of this stuff is cynical and I don’t enjoy writing about it, since these are our people who are dying there." It's all our people Aleks on both sides and whoever and wherever they happen to be. The one thing I can't figure out about Russia, China, India, BRICS and even the portion of the West who have been blackmailed ... they certainly must understand what you have outlined in your various articles ... so, why are The Oligarchs and their trained minions permitted to live? I'm not advocating violence here, but there is a LOT of violence against the citizens and military already continuing day after day in all of the countries that are being manipulated into mass suicide through war. I know I must be naive, but it seems like a potentially "certain" way to end all of this is to uh, remove the people who are causing the problem in the first place, especially if there are really not that many of them involved. Just wondering.
Please understand that I can't answer such a question.
But I understand you very well.
Oh yes... thank you for reminding me that all people are "our people". You're entirely right. During these confusing times one tends to forget this basic Christian tenet.
Yes, it's so easy isn't it? I said "why are they permitted to live?" That's the emotions of it, but in actuality they have committed the most enormous, egregious and highest level war crimes for long periods of time and they should suffer the consequences of their actions. Unfortunately, this is unlikely to happen in any court of law. They can't be cut off at ground level - the roots need to be dug up and burned so they don't simply go dormant to reappear at a later time. They have too long a reach to be simply jailed. I am just wondering if there are political reasons such actions haven't been taken, although Putin has commented in such a way to indicate they are considering such covert actions.
I often ponder why Russia (and China) aren't busy with hunter killer teams taking out the Zionist MIC/banking scumbags. But then I remember the answer; they attempt to stick to the letter of the law and aren't renegade nations.
This is much harder than it seems. First, it won't solve the problem. The problem is evil. You can't eradicate evil if every year a new crop of people are born with free wills that can choose evil for no reason at all. So that's problem number one and you'll probably appreciate it's unsolvable. But problem number two is that you can't perform these killings without provoking a response in kind. When the killing starts, some people will be killed first and others later. But those that are set to be killed later will learn of the first deaths and realize they are being hunted. Upon which point they will protect themselves and essentially become unkillable. The third problem is identifying the people that need to be killed. Unless you set the bar *very* high, some evildoers will escape and plot revenge. And the only ones who have so far set the bar high enough to prevent escaping what they belived to be evildoers were the Nazis (okay, there were a few instances in France when Catholics killed all heretics they could find, like in the famous instance of anti-Cathar crusades when a priest was asked to separate Cathars from Catholics in a city the crusaders broke into and he replied with "Kill them all, God will recognize his."). You'll appreciate Nazi's effort was on an industrial scale, lasted for years and wasn't even completed (only one comparably small area was declared Jew-free). And finally the fourth problem is that you need to define what you mean by "evil" and you have to prove that's what "evil" trully is. So far, nobody managed to do that.
And if you need any more reason, then there's Jesus' parable of the weeds in the wheat. "Don't pull the weeds for you will pull some of the wheat as well." If God decided he's happy with this shitfest of a World, who are we to forcefully change the World?
I totally get your meaning, understand and appreciate all that you say. However, I was not speaking in a religious sense or considering "evil" as the progenitor, which isn't to say it isn't a factor, but working from that premise gets complicated and potentially dangerous as you pointed out. I was approaching the question as anyone would approach the question of what to do with a criminal who has been reeking havoc in their community and what political reasons could exist to keep such actions from occurring. Putin has made comments that seem to insinuate that they may, at some point in the near future, seriously consider covert activities along the line of "removing" problematic political or oligarchical figures. I'm surprised it hasn't been done long before now. The Oligarchs don't seem to have any trouble with the concept, such as assassinating JFK. And, I have no idea what God thinks, but we were given free will for a reason and we were given the experience of pain and suffering for a reason. It's always complex to think about the moral implications of turning the other cheek, versus slapping back and when it is appropriate and when it is not ... that takes maturity and a refined sense of discernment.
Putin has made comments that seem to insinuate that they may, at some point in the near future, seriously consider covert activities along the line of "removing" problematic political or oligarchical figures.
I was pretty vague in my comment because, of course, he hasn't come right and said that. I started hearing hints of it when the drone strikes were taking place. Also, I can't remember the military analyst's name who thought something similar, but it might have been on The Duran news. Anyway, all are reading between the lines and I can't lay my hands on a specific blog or video. The closest I can get is a blog post by Joseph Farrell of Giza Death Star. If you don't know who he is, he is an Oxford scholar, and pursues research in physics, alternative history and science, and "strange stuff". He is a frequent guest of Catherine Austin Fitts on the Solar Report doing quarterly reviews of current events both political and financial. Here is his "high octane speculation" and reading between the lines of one of Putin's speeches.
I appreciate that that you underscore the human cost of these events. Many people have a difficult time to accept these harsh realities and tend to accuse the messenger to promote a "bloodbath" by questioning the conventional commonsense ("you want everybody to die!"). This article warns the reader about it several times, so its "forwardable" to "square-heads".
I verbalize the "price diversification" issue on a different way (perhaps you will reflect that on your next Economics and Empires), although it arrives to the same consequences:
- The US enjoys the "exorbitant privilege" of being able to buy whatever it wants just by printing its own currency or by issuing treasuries that the rest of the world has to buy due to agreements and limitations (commercial surplus in USDs).
- Other countries cannot benefit from such scheme since they have to acquire the USD needed for importing goods and services by exports or borrowing. These countries cannot get loans at a reasonable rate if they run lousy macroeconomic variables, specially fiscal and trade balances.
- The US has been consistently running fiscal and trade deficits since at least the early 90s, with the exemption of a few Clinton years.
- Should the USD be displaced as the world trade and savings currency, the US would have to acquire the foreign currency (CNY or whatever) to buy the enormous volume of imports that they run today. They don't have enough export potential to maintain the current stratospheric level of imports if run on a currency other than the USD.
- This will cause a sharp drop in the consumption level of its own population and a sharp increase in domestic prices since the USD would devalue and imports would cost much more in USDs.
The consequences of such shock in the US will be painful and drastic, but what would come out of it is unknown. The Americans, besides the huge amount of defects and perversions that characterizes them, are very good at changing, adapting and finding solutions. They may fall into a chaotic, contemporary Far West or return to the sources (isolation and Puritanism), and any option in between.
Debts gdp ratio are not important for western powers, look at Japan they still have negative rates, debt will soon reach 235% (worse than Greece or Argentina or some of the 'worse' African economies) did anyone here saw Japan collapsing?...it is a convention, 0 and 1 on xls files, they will print more QE as before, up to 500 % debt gdp if necessary..it sounds crazy but it is not. USD will always be dominant only two events can crash it: nuclear war and some kind of Carrington space event otherwise no problem even if his share between global south countries will slowly decrease but a matter of 50 or 100 years this is why BRICS (if they still exist?) will never launch a currency.
Michael Hudson explains it very well in this (transcribed) interview the "dollar hegemony was, and it was a free ride. And it all ended last Wednesday [March 2022] when the United States grabbed Russia’s reserves having grabbed Afghanistan’s foreign reserves and Venezuela’s foreign reserves and those of other countries."
"And all of a sudden, this means that other countries can no longer safely hold their reserves by sending their money back, depositing them in US banks or buying US Treasury Securities, or having other US investments because they could simply be grabbed as happened to Russia. So, all of a sudden this last week, you’re seeing the world economy fracture into two parts, a dollarized part and other countries that do not follow the neoliberal policies that the United States insists that its allies follow. We’re seeing the birth of a new dual World economy."
Thanks for trying to disentagle a bit this convoluted knot that is the middle east.
But since I am in Germany, I like to mention that it may be even mor complex: the West is not really a unified entity, but lately it has become more obvious that the USA and Europe seems to be on different sides. The USA is on the USA side, but I have no clue anymore on which side Europe is. Definitively not on its own side; we seem to be hellbent to selfdestruct. It looks to me that we will be sacrificed by the USA, in the USA's to save it's economy. Europe deindustrialized, and much of it goes to the USA.
And also Israel's position doesn't seem to be so clear to me. Just a few months ago Saudi and Israel has become very close. And also Israel's stance on Ukraine was fairly pro-Russia for many months (e.g. the former prime minister was the mediator last year.). After all, Israel has a very large Russian population.
In the long run, I could imagine that Israel will align more with Russia. I could also imagine that Russia is mediating in the background with the Arabs and Israel, and the future will not be a big war.
Possibly Trump will get into office again next year, which could result in a peace deal satisfying for all.
Net and yahoo just said israel will ctrl Gaza forever which means genocide + expulsion + holocaust 2.0 (reversed). If confirmed Iran may go for broke it will be once in a century 'chance' otherwise ayatollahs will be regime changed not by pro US but by hardliners, same for UAE, Saudis, Qatar, Iraq, Turkey and even Egypt or Algeria.
I tend to agree with most of what you write here, but don't underestimate the real American citizen. There are still enough of us true patriots that understand that our country is being run by totally corrupt and inept, and you could say evil, unelected bureaucrats. These people are traitors to our Republic and Constitution, and includes the MSM, major corporations and sad to say the top brass of our military which has been driven to ruin. We can survive, like Russia we have all the natural resources within to carry on, but these traitors have to be removed and face the consequences of their betrayal. It will not be by voting them out as you cannot vote someone out that was not elected in the first place. It will take a massive civil war. I don't know how soon it will happen, or in what form it will take, but I feel the rumbling in the air, "we the people" are pissed, and something is going to pop. Maybe it will take getting our asses kicked by creating a WW3 scenario but it's going to happen. My opinion, of course.
"I hear what you say", Mel, but if the USA is so democratic, how come all those citizens of good will are so utterly impotent to change, or even influence, Washington's actions?
To be fair, it's much the same here in Britain - or perhaps even worse.
It's called total corruption and control of the media, and I understand it's the same everywhere in the Wester sphere. It unfortunately it will take a war to remove these traitors.
''It is to be assumed (even though there is no way to know it with certainty) that the regional Axis of Resistance has been greenlighted, and even (covertly) supported by Russia and China to execute the Quds plan. Which is the plan by all regional powers, coordinated by the Quds forces to free Jerusalem (Quds/Palestine)"
I hope this is actually the case as it means Russian and China has their backs. It is reason for optimism.
Quite the tour de force. The flood of humanity into Europe resulting from failure in the Middle East and Africa (from various interventions and meddling) seems to be a setup for civil war. Ditto the USA with its unchecked borders at the south. The counter productive results and dissonance has the hallmarks of a contemptible and inbred elite.
As I see it - with the sage and well-informed guidance of BMA and others - the Western oligarchs could be compared to a badly-trained dog that was warned not to bite, bit went ahead and bit.
China, Russia, and their friends are currently loading a shotgun to settle the problem. The dog hasn't noticed, and goes on growling and baring its teeth.
Please note that the shotgun is a metaphorical one. It is not military force, still less WMD. It consists of the economic and financial forces that Aleks describes so well in his article.
But the state of mind of the Western leaders is oddly similar to that of a mad dog. Even if they understand that the end is coming to them soon, they just cannot stop. To shift animal metaphors, they are like the scorpion that stings the frog.
Weird. I saw a scorpion on a frog image just a few days ago. Forgot where tho... I didn't recognize it as important, even though it was placed in an important context. Now that the image reappeared, I looked it up. The Wikipedia page features the *exact* image I saw a few days ago.
I wonder if this image appearing twice before my eyes out of nowhere implies it became viral? And if it's viral, was it planted (by "them") or is organically viral? Right now I'm favoring the "organically viral" explanation because the image seems to be "aimed" at Europeans who would be likely to interpret it as European people being the frog and European oligarchy being the scorpion. And the moral would be that the oligarchy is irredemable so needs to be shaken off. Wait. That idea could be promoted by Russia/China. So it could be "them" but the other "them". xD
" Hence , the role of Israel since it's foundation" Can you explain , how the existence of the state of Israel functions as a tool for Western Oligarchs to control oil and it's price ? " Never have I heard or read anyone refer to the Zionists , as useful Idiots , this also requires an explanation , if you don't mind . This one takes the cake ! "It would not be an impossible task for the world powers to guarantee a lasting peace in the region" The very fact that the Western Oligarchs and their Anglo American MasterBlasters want war , makes that mission Impossible .
I find it almost unbelievable that not only Netanyahu but many other Israelis are allowing their bigoted racism to show so openly - even boasting about it. In that regard they have well and truly fallen into the racist bigot trap that Hamas set for them.
Did you read the former two articles about Israel, which I recommended at the start of my article? I explained a lot there already.
In economics and empires 4, as well.
That's how BMA works. I try to not repeat my explaining too often.
I rather try to refer to my previous articles which is creating a "Framework".
Moreover, I assume that I answered the remaining questions in the present article already.
If you then still have questions I try to answer it shortly. Please excuse me if I don't answer, because my time is very very limited. I hope I was able to help you or give you some hints.
I read the previous articles, of course. All arguments have a "framework"--and to understand their strengths and weaknesses in the foreground you must understand the background. You are unusual in articulating that background in depth, Kudos. Make Mike Hampton buy you a case of beer.....LOL. He's from South Africa so unable to drink just one at a time anyway.
Although perhaps counter-intuitive, isn't it possible that the Israelis and the Americans are each treating the other as useful idiots for their own, separate purposes?
He he he ! A carnival of Idiotism of the Anglo American establishment and the centuries old ruling class cadres , well educated in Nominalist philosophy ( anti philosophy) and indoctrinated in a Humanist ( Man Worship )Democratic Liberal order founded in the Renaissance and age of Enlightenment principles , which for Orthodox Christians is a dark age . What all of mankind is experiencing is a Great Apostasy from the truth of God as revealed in his Saints of the One Holy Catholic and Apostolic church. That Apostasy began almost a millennium ago with the Bishop Rome falling away from Orthodoxy , the ground and pillar of truth ! War and desolations are decreed and Jerusalem will be a cup of trembling to the Nations of useful idiots . Repent and live in repentance that you might save your soul and those near and dear , for the Great and terrible day of the Lord is at hand !
One of my favourite substacks and a reason to drink beer in Serbia.
Although the future is hard to predict, it would be handy to have a "what if" articles e.g., consequences on global economy and services when Ukraine falls, or if Middle East enters full conflict (without WW3).
We'll make it a political date. If your home gets bombed, you come have beer in South Africa. If my home gets burnt down, I'll find beer in your town :)
I once had a mate from your region, his name was Goran, but can't remember which town. His family got out during the war, moved to Plettenberg Bay South Africa, and opened a supermarket and a club. But he later married a beautiful woman from back home, so he would have bought a house there (because she was close to her family, and missing them big time).
Another view is that energy resources are in decline, so all of these other mechanisms will be brought into play, like wars and blockades, to match that fact.
Weird, but it seems to play that way. No oligarchy can just allow the truth to get out...
Also, wars are necessary to maintain power/control while defaulting on commitments to everybody.
Well, must keep re-reading. Enough information to sit with for a long while. Prayers up, on wings of mercy. God of Mammon needs to exit. I leave this to the bright bulbs. Rally and move with GodSpeed. Thank you sir; once again…straight to the heart of the matter. Old lady with a virtual cat🐈⬛❤️
Er, which election(s) could change the grand scheme of things significantly? As for the USA, Mr Putin has stated publicly that "presidents come and go, but the policies never change". Here in the UK, I have not voted for some time. I shall not until a candidate is permitted to stand of whose plans I approve, and whose good will I accept.
Even candidates who promise everything I want would not deliver any of it if elected.
Great article as usual. In my own reason article....
https://julianmacfarlane.substack.com/p/terrorist-attack-or-strategic-victory I argues from a similar, although not identical point of view. Geopolitics is very much about "optics" these days--and the October 7 attack was strategic in this sense because it provoked an emotional, knee-jerk overreaction from the Zionists which makes their essentially genocidal intentions clear to the entire world-- and US support for this,
Message?
No one is safe.
US carriers, submarines, and NATO support in the Mediterranean are militarily meaningless. The SMO has demonstrated the inadequacy of NATO military technologies and strategies – and this attempt to impress does the opposite. The war will not widen or escalate because the Americans have just put themselves at risk. Both the Israelis and the Americans are casualty adverse. If the SMO has taught us anything it is that urban warfare takes time and it's costly. In the case of underground fortification – it takes even more time. Hamas is at 20 years to build one of the most sophisticated underground military systems ever-- with 300 km of tunnels and three levels, impressively distributed. No, gas won't work. Water won't work.
So the US and Israel are caught between a rock and a hard place.
At the same time they have alienated a sizable chunk of the global Jewish community.
Hello Julian. Thank you very much. I missed you here :))
Great article BTW. As always, recommendable.
I only hope that all of this madness won't spiral out of control...
Thanks Alex. I was thinking of writing about your last article which I hope everyone will read. Trouble is there is so much in it – not to mention the other articles which are the framework. So it takes time for my little mind to digest. Working on it though. Of course I don't agree with everything you write. I don't agree with everything I write also – LOL
Julian, you certainly don't have a little mind.
Your forensic work is exceptional. Thanks for that.
And I think that is the strength of the independent media. To not agree to everything the others write and say. But to have independent and free opinions. That's our strength. As opposed to the MSM which is essentially solely writing the same stuff all over the board. So, it's entirely cool, that we have different views on some topics. Again, that's our strength.
"US carriers, submarines, and NATO support in the Mediterranean are militarily meaningless".
True in the sense that they cannot win a war. Unfortunately, they might all too easily start one. The Palestinians, Syrians, Lebanese, and even the Iranians are used to taking heavy casualties and having their property demolished.
The Americans aren't. If even one of their precious floating white elephants is bent, or sunk, they will raise Cain. There would be even more wailing and gnashing of teeth than after 9/11 - if that's imaginable.
The important question is: what would they do about it? I'm not an expert in abnormal psychology, so I don't know.
Full court press propaganda about how the people fighting us are evil, to dissuade analysis of their culpability. They won't be risking carriers in the Eastern Med again anytime soon. They know the UN won't play ball, but I would expect an attempt to construct a coalition ala the two Iraq wars and Afghanistan to punish the perpetrators and save Israel. It'll be up to the Europeans to talk them down. Evaluate the chances of someone in Europe growing some nuts and saying "no"?
I don't expect a nuclear release because that defeats the purpose of all this saber rattling and warfare.
I also highly doubt a nuclear exchange between the great powers.
Unfortunately, Samson is not entirely impossible, even though unlikely, yet.
I think at heart Israelis know that their country is doomed should a single warhead from Israel be used. When you use a deterrent, it stops being a deterrent and becomes a threat. Israel would become a great game of "bounce the rubble" at that point.
Doesn't stop them from threatening, though.
Quick Comments
1. I don’t think Samson would show up. Even if the current Israeli government is confident and some are crazy the West (or even some in the US) along some sane ones will stop it getting there. You never know but I highly doubt it. Especially if ...
2. A defeat is inflicted on US forces in the Middle East. It will become clear at that point that big daddy can’t protect Israel anymore. Which will leave it the choice of reaching a negotiated peace or lose everything. Which would mean ...
3. A face saving option is unlikely. This is an existential moment for the West. They know it. Even Biden said it in his Oval Office speech (if you can even call it that). And we know their answer to every existential moment - more war. Also, if a face saving option is given their influence still remain even if diminished which they can use to try to derail or usurp the emerging world order. The other side knows that. Like Austin said “Russia needs to lose and look like it’s losing” - same thing just replace Russia with “the West”.
Unfortunately many (millions) people will die. Many died in unnecessary wars since WW2 ended. Hopefully this will bring about a sufficiently global and lasting peace that their unsolicited sacrifice will not be in vain.
Even though I do agree with most of what you wrote, I still have some hope :))
But yes, I fully understand you and it is also a very likely scenario.
Unfortunately. We'll see.
Thanks for your comment.
One consideration about thermonuclear war that many people seem to overlook is that, unlike all previous wars, the public and even the political class will be entirely out of the loop. There is no need to build up support through the media and rousing speeches; nor to worry about how things will turn out. Strating a thermonuclear war is precisely analogous to cutting one's throat or jumping off a building - except that it results in death for all humans, not just the one who commits the deed.
Since I very much doubt if any of the players have any religious convictions, they don't even have to worry about the afterlife.
Isaiah 24?
I don't think the sun and the moon give a toss, but otherwise it's fairly accurate. Human psychology is strange; why do some people rejoice so much in destruction and death?
Not sure what do you mean - could you point out more directly, what your expectations of future events are?
Thanks for pointing out that I did not make myself entirely clear, mendo. It's always a compromise between explaining fully and keeping comments (fairly) short.
My only point is that it would be easier to start a thermonuclear war than a conventional one, because you don't have to plan for the future: there won't be one.
Nor do you really have to go through the tedious process of building up popular support for war - which can always be done, as Goering remarked, but takes time.
Since thermonuclear weapons can be launched instantly in case it becomes necessary to respond to a surprise attack, a political or military leader can start such a war quite easily. Provided he or she doesn't mind dying with everyone else, as thermonuclear war would kill everyone on earth.
In relation to the present state of affairs, that probably just means that we should expect thermonuclear war to be more likely than one might think. In his excellent book "The Doomsday Machine: Confessions of a Nuclear War Planner", Daniel Ellsberg related how, in about 1960, he was sent on a tour of inspection of US nuclear weapons in the Far East, and discovered to his horror that most of the elaborate safety precautions to prevent a rogue or mistaken launch had simply been disabled. In his view, the only priority of US officers in charge of thermonuclear weapons was to make absolutely sure that if the USA was attacked they would not fail to strike back.
In other words, Western thermonuclear weapons may be on a hair trigger.
> My only point is that it would be easier to start a thermonuclear war than a conventional one, because you don't have to plan for the future: there won't be one.
Well I for one plan to live out my Fallout-like post-nuclear-apocaliptic fantasies so as far as I'm concerned, there will be a future, and if any of the evildoers survive, WE'LL MAKE SURE THEY REGRET THEIR DECISION! I can't go into specifics, but suffice to say human body is very resilient and actually pretty hard to kill, if you catch my drift. ;)
But I understand your comment and see it true.
That "other religion" is the bloodthirsty "Moloch" worship, I presume...
Western countries have allowed their economies to be taken over by "rentier" interests, which always "maximize shareholder value", which guts and bleeds the productive aspects of enterprise.
Classical economics sought to minimize rent-collection in all forms.
"Neoclassical" economics puts rent-collection into every little economic niche, impoverishing and hobbling productive enterprises.
The US did not do that in the past. Countries like China and Germany largely copied what the US did in the "Fordist-capitalism" years.
Good work, too :-)
Thanks John.
Yes, I plan to write about these economic issues as well.
I already hinted at it in Economics and Empires 5.
Aleks... Sir, we live in the opposite side of the sea (and of the divide) but... I feel like You.
I hate with all my heart the Mardukians of London... And I'm sure You understand who they are...
Damn them all...
"All of this stuff is cynical and I don’t enjoy writing about it, since these are our people who are dying there." It's all our people Aleks on both sides and whoever and wherever they happen to be. The one thing I can't figure out about Russia, China, India, BRICS and even the portion of the West who have been blackmailed ... they certainly must understand what you have outlined in your various articles ... so, why are The Oligarchs and their trained minions permitted to live? I'm not advocating violence here, but there is a LOT of violence against the citizens and military already continuing day after day in all of the countries that are being manipulated into mass suicide through war. I know I must be naive, but it seems like a potentially "certain" way to end all of this is to uh, remove the people who are causing the problem in the first place, especially if there are really not that many of them involved. Just wondering.
Hi Cairenn,
Well...
Please understand that I can't answer such a question.
But I understand you very well.
Oh yes... thank you for reminding me that all people are "our people". You're entirely right. During these confusing times one tends to forget this basic Christian tenet.
Yes, it's so easy isn't it? I said "why are they permitted to live?" That's the emotions of it, but in actuality they have committed the most enormous, egregious and highest level war crimes for long periods of time and they should suffer the consequences of their actions. Unfortunately, this is unlikely to happen in any court of law. They can't be cut off at ground level - the roots need to be dug up and burned so they don't simply go dormant to reappear at a later time. They have too long a reach to be simply jailed. I am just wondering if there are political reasons such actions haven't been taken, although Putin has commented in such a way to indicate they are considering such covert actions.
I often ponder why Russia (and China) aren't busy with hunter killer teams taking out the Zionist MIC/banking scumbags. But then I remember the answer; they attempt to stick to the letter of the law and aren't renegade nations.
This is much harder than it seems. First, it won't solve the problem. The problem is evil. You can't eradicate evil if every year a new crop of people are born with free wills that can choose evil for no reason at all. So that's problem number one and you'll probably appreciate it's unsolvable. But problem number two is that you can't perform these killings without provoking a response in kind. When the killing starts, some people will be killed first and others later. But those that are set to be killed later will learn of the first deaths and realize they are being hunted. Upon which point they will protect themselves and essentially become unkillable. The third problem is identifying the people that need to be killed. Unless you set the bar *very* high, some evildoers will escape and plot revenge. And the only ones who have so far set the bar high enough to prevent escaping what they belived to be evildoers were the Nazis (okay, there were a few instances in France when Catholics killed all heretics they could find, like in the famous instance of anti-Cathar crusades when a priest was asked to separate Cathars from Catholics in a city the crusaders broke into and he replied with "Kill them all, God will recognize his."). You'll appreciate Nazi's effort was on an industrial scale, lasted for years and wasn't even completed (only one comparably small area was declared Jew-free). And finally the fourth problem is that you need to define what you mean by "evil" and you have to prove that's what "evil" trully is. So far, nobody managed to do that.
And if you need any more reason, then there's Jesus' parable of the weeds in the wheat. "Don't pull the weeds for you will pull some of the wheat as well." If God decided he's happy with this shitfest of a World, who are we to forcefully change the World?
I totally get your meaning, understand and appreciate all that you say. However, I was not speaking in a religious sense or considering "evil" as the progenitor, which isn't to say it isn't a factor, but working from that premise gets complicated and potentially dangerous as you pointed out. I was approaching the question as anyone would approach the question of what to do with a criminal who has been reeking havoc in their community and what political reasons could exist to keep such actions from occurring. Putin has made comments that seem to insinuate that they may, at some point in the near future, seriously consider covert activities along the line of "removing" problematic political or oligarchical figures. I'm surprised it hasn't been done long before now. The Oligarchs don't seem to have any trouble with the concept, such as assassinating JFK. And, I have no idea what God thinks, but we were given free will for a reason and we were given the experience of pain and suffering for a reason. It's always complex to think about the moral implications of turning the other cheek, versus slapping back and when it is appropriate and when it is not ... that takes maturity and a refined sense of discernment.
Which comments ? Where could they be seen?
Putin has made comments that seem to insinuate that they may, at some point in the near future, seriously consider covert activities along the line of "removing" problematic political or oligarchical figures.
I was pretty vague in my comment because, of course, he hasn't come right and said that. I started hearing hints of it when the drone strikes were taking place. Also, I can't remember the military analyst's name who thought something similar, but it might have been on The Duran news. Anyway, all are reading between the lines and I can't lay my hands on a specific blog or video. The closest I can get is a blog post by Joseph Farrell of Giza Death Star. If you don't know who he is, he is an Oxford scholar, and pursues research in physics, alternative history and science, and "strange stuff". He is a frequent guest of Catherine Austin Fitts on the Solar Report doing quarterly reviews of current events both political and financial. Here is his "high octane speculation" and reading between the lines of one of Putin's speeches.
https://gizadeathstar.com/2023/10/putin-at-valdai/
Good wrap-up, Aleks. Thanks.
I appreciate that that you underscore the human cost of these events. Many people have a difficult time to accept these harsh realities and tend to accuse the messenger to promote a "bloodbath" by questioning the conventional commonsense ("you want everybody to die!"). This article warns the reader about it several times, so its "forwardable" to "square-heads".
I verbalize the "price diversification" issue on a different way (perhaps you will reflect that on your next Economics and Empires), although it arrives to the same consequences:
- The US enjoys the "exorbitant privilege" of being able to buy whatever it wants just by printing its own currency or by issuing treasuries that the rest of the world has to buy due to agreements and limitations (commercial surplus in USDs).
- Other countries cannot benefit from such scheme since they have to acquire the USD needed for importing goods and services by exports or borrowing. These countries cannot get loans at a reasonable rate if they run lousy macroeconomic variables, specially fiscal and trade balances.
- The US has been consistently running fiscal and trade deficits since at least the early 90s, with the exemption of a few Clinton years.
- Should the USD be displaced as the world trade and savings currency, the US would have to acquire the foreign currency (CNY or whatever) to buy the enormous volume of imports that they run today. They don't have enough export potential to maintain the current stratospheric level of imports if run on a currency other than the USD.
- This will cause a sharp drop in the consumption level of its own population and a sharp increase in domestic prices since the USD would devalue and imports would cost much more in USDs.
The consequences of such shock in the US will be painful and drastic, but what would come out of it is unknown. The Americans, besides the huge amount of defects and perversions that characterizes them, are very good at changing, adapting and finding solutions. They may fall into a chaotic, contemporary Far West or return to the sources (isolation and Puritanism), and any option in between.
Andres... you just burned a lot of gunpowder that I planned for later articles 🤣🤣
I agree with your explanations and it is a different perspective on the same price diversification scheme that I explained.
Thank you. An important part of the puzzle indeed.
Debts gdp ratio are not important for western powers, look at Japan they still have negative rates, debt will soon reach 235% (worse than Greece or Argentina or some of the 'worse' African economies) did anyone here saw Japan collapsing?...it is a convention, 0 and 1 on xls files, they will print more QE as before, up to 500 % debt gdp if necessary..it sounds crazy but it is not. USD will always be dominant only two events can crash it: nuclear war and some kind of Carrington space event otherwise no problem even if his share between global south countries will slowly decrease but a matter of 50 or 100 years this is why BRICS (if they still exist?) will never launch a currency.
Michael Hudson explains it very well in this (transcribed) interview the "dollar hegemony was, and it was a free ride. And it all ended last Wednesday [March 2022] when the United States grabbed Russia’s reserves having grabbed Afghanistan’s foreign reserves and Venezuela’s foreign reserves and those of other countries."
"And all of a sudden, this means that other countries can no longer safely hold their reserves by sending their money back, depositing them in US banks or buying US Treasury Securities, or having other US investments because they could simply be grabbed as happened to Russia. So, all of a sudden this last week, you’re seeing the world economy fracture into two parts, a dollarized part and other countries that do not follow the neoliberal policies that the United States insists that its allies follow. We’re seeing the birth of a new dual World economy."
https://www.unz.com/mhudson/us-dollar-hegemony-ended-abruptly-last-wednesday/
I'm thinking a return to Little America wouldn't be a bad thing.
Thanks for trying to disentagle a bit this convoluted knot that is the middle east.
But since I am in Germany, I like to mention that it may be even mor complex: the West is not really a unified entity, but lately it has become more obvious that the USA and Europe seems to be on different sides. The USA is on the USA side, but I have no clue anymore on which side Europe is. Definitively not on its own side; we seem to be hellbent to selfdestruct. It looks to me that we will be sacrificed by the USA, in the USA's to save it's economy. Europe deindustrialized, and much of it goes to the USA.
And also Israel's position doesn't seem to be so clear to me. Just a few months ago Saudi and Israel has become very close. And also Israel's stance on Ukraine was fairly pro-Russia for many months (e.g. the former prime minister was the mediator last year.). After all, Israel has a very large Russian population.
In the long run, I could imagine that Israel will align more with Russia. I could also imagine that Russia is mediating in the background with the Arabs and Israel, and the future will not be a big war.
Possibly Trump will get into office again next year, which could result in a peace deal satisfying for all.
I also hope that Russia and/or China manages to transition the Middle East into lasting peace without a bigger war.
We will see...
Net and yahoo just said israel will ctrl Gaza forever which means genocide + expulsion + holocaust 2.0 (reversed). If confirmed Iran may go for broke it will be once in a century 'chance' otherwise ayatollahs will be regime changed not by pro US but by hardliners, same for UAE, Saudis, Qatar, Iraq, Turkey and even Egypt or Algeria.
I tend to agree with most of what you write here, but don't underestimate the real American citizen. There are still enough of us true patriots that understand that our country is being run by totally corrupt and inept, and you could say evil, unelected bureaucrats. These people are traitors to our Republic and Constitution, and includes the MSM, major corporations and sad to say the top brass of our military which has been driven to ruin. We can survive, like Russia we have all the natural resources within to carry on, but these traitors have to be removed and face the consequences of their betrayal. It will not be by voting them out as you cannot vote someone out that was not elected in the first place. It will take a massive civil war. I don't know how soon it will happen, or in what form it will take, but I feel the rumbling in the air, "we the people" are pissed, and something is going to pop. Maybe it will take getting our asses kicked by creating a WW3 scenario but it's going to happen. My opinion, of course.
Basically, what I wrote here: https://bmanalysis.substack.com/p/economics-and-empires-5
I assume, you have read it?
"I hear what you say", Mel, but if the USA is so democratic, how come all those citizens of good will are so utterly impotent to change, or even influence, Washington's actions?
To be fair, it's much the same here in Britain - or perhaps even worse.
It's called total corruption and control of the media, and I understand it's the same everywhere in the Wester sphere. It unfortunately it will take a war to remove these traitors.
''It is to be assumed (even though there is no way to know it with certainty) that the regional Axis of Resistance has been greenlighted, and even (covertly) supported by Russia and China to execute the Quds plan. Which is the plan by all regional powers, coordinated by the Quds forces to free Jerusalem (Quds/Palestine)"
I hope this is actually the case as it means Russian and China has their backs. It is reason for optimism.
Quite the tour de force. The flood of humanity into Europe resulting from failure in the Middle East and Africa (from various interventions and meddling) seems to be a setup for civil war. Ditto the USA with its unchecked borders at the south. The counter productive results and dissonance has the hallmarks of a contemptible and inbred elite.
Sowing and reaping.
As I see it - with the sage and well-informed guidance of BMA and others - the Western oligarchs could be compared to a badly-trained dog that was warned not to bite, bit went ahead and bit.
China, Russia, and their friends are currently loading a shotgun to settle the problem. The dog hasn't noticed, and goes on growling and baring its teeth.
Please note that the shotgun is a metaphorical one. It is not military force, still less WMD. It consists of the economic and financial forces that Aleks describes so well in his article.
But the state of mind of the Western leaders is oddly similar to that of a mad dog. Even if they understand that the end is coming to them soon, they just cannot stop. To shift animal metaphors, they are like the scorpion that stings the frog.
Weird. I saw a scorpion on a frog image just a few days ago. Forgot where tho... I didn't recognize it as important, even though it was placed in an important context. Now that the image reappeared, I looked it up. The Wikipedia page features the *exact* image I saw a few days ago.
I wonder if this image appearing twice before my eyes out of nowhere implies it became viral? And if it's viral, was it planted (by "them") or is organically viral? Right now I'm favoring the "organically viral" explanation because the image seems to be "aimed" at Europeans who would be likely to interpret it as European people being the frog and European oligarchy being the scorpion. And the moral would be that the oligarchy is irredemable so needs to be shaken off. Wait. That idea could be promoted by Russia/China. So it could be "them" but the other "them". xD
" Hence , the role of Israel since it's foundation" Can you explain , how the existence of the state of Israel functions as a tool for Western Oligarchs to control oil and it's price ? " Never have I heard or read anyone refer to the Zionists , as useful Idiots , this also requires an explanation , if you don't mind . This one takes the cake ! "It would not be an impossible task for the world powers to guarantee a lasting peace in the region" The very fact that the Western Oligarchs and their Anglo American MasterBlasters want war , makes that mission Impossible .
"Zionists, as useful Idiots" A Shakespearian/Mozartian note to be sure.
:D :D
"Zionists" are useful-idiots to the degree that they are true-believers, "zealots", as are "Christian-fundamentalist-zionists".
It seems that anybody with strong exclusivist beliefs can be a divided-and-ruled-useful-idiot, as that paradigm is played.
Yes.
I find it almost unbelievable that not only Netanyahu but many other Israelis are allowing their bigoted racism to show so openly - even boasting about it. In that regard they have well and truly fallen into the racist bigot trap that Hamas set for them.
Very good point. I think, Zionists are ideologues, and as such have tunnel vision. They are easily used and manipulated
Right.
Did you read the former two articles about Israel, which I recommended at the start of my article? I explained a lot there already.
In economics and empires 4, as well.
That's how BMA works. I try to not repeat my explaining too often.
I rather try to refer to my previous articles which is creating a "Framework".
Moreover, I assume that I answered the remaining questions in the present article already.
If you then still have questions I try to answer it shortly. Please excuse me if I don't answer, because my time is very very limited. I hope I was able to help you or give you some hints.
I read the previous articles, of course. All arguments have a "framework"--and to understand their strengths and weaknesses in the foreground you must understand the background. You are unusual in articulating that background in depth, Kudos. Make Mike Hampton buy you a case of beer.....LOL. He's from South Africa so unable to drink just one at a time anyway.
LOL :))) I didn't know about that (The South Africans)^^
Although perhaps counter-intuitive, isn't it possible that the Israelis and the Americans are each treating the other as useful idiots for their own, separate purposes?
He he he ! A carnival of Idiotism of the Anglo American establishment and the centuries old ruling class cadres , well educated in Nominalist philosophy ( anti philosophy) and indoctrinated in a Humanist ( Man Worship )Democratic Liberal order founded in the Renaissance and age of Enlightenment principles , which for Orthodox Christians is a dark age . What all of mankind is experiencing is a Great Apostasy from the truth of God as revealed in his Saints of the One Holy Catholic and Apostolic church. That Apostasy began almost a millennium ago with the Bishop Rome falling away from Orthodoxy , the ground and pillar of truth ! War and desolations are decreed and Jerusalem will be a cup of trembling to the Nations of useful idiots . Repent and live in repentance that you might save your soul and those near and dear , for the Great and terrible day of the Lord is at hand !
One of my favourite substacks and a reason to drink beer in Serbia.
Although the future is hard to predict, it would be handy to have a "what if" articles e.g., consequences on global economy and services when Ukraine falls, or if Middle East enters full conflict (without WW3).
Well, I count on that you will show up in Serbia for a beer haha :))))
I always say Serbia, but I'm actually in Republika Srpska in Banja Luka.
We have great beer here!
We'll see what the future brings.
We'll make it a political date. If your home gets bombed, you come have beer in South Africa. If my home gets burnt down, I'll find beer in your town :)
I once had a mate from your region, his name was Goran, but can't remember which town. His family got out during the war, moved to Plettenberg Bay South Africa, and opened a supermarket and a club. But he later married a beautiful woman from back home, so he would have bought a house there (because she was close to her family, and missing them big time).
Haha I like sarcasm :)
But it is more likely that I got bombed than you :))
Hence, you need to pay the beer!!!
Any time!
Another view is that energy resources are in decline, so all of these other mechanisms will be brought into play, like wars and blockades, to match that fact.
Weird, but it seems to play that way. No oligarchy can just allow the truth to get out...
Also, wars are necessary to maintain power/control while defaulting on commitments to everybody.
;-(
Competition is the race of humans.
Well, must keep re-reading. Enough information to sit with for a long while. Prayers up, on wings of mercy. God of Mammon needs to exit. I leave this to the bright bulbs. Rally and move with GodSpeed. Thank you sir; once again…straight to the heart of the matter. Old lady with a virtual cat🐈⬛❤️
Thank you so much, as always. I always appreciate to read your comment. Thanks.
It is regrettable, but inevitable, that lives are the casino tokens for this grandest and most terrible of games.
You didn't factor in the sundry upcoming elections that may change the calculi , and hopefully shorten the hostilities
Right.
Er, which election(s) could change the grand scheme of things significantly? As for the USA, Mr Putin has stated publicly that "presidents come and go, but the policies never change". Here in the UK, I have not voted for some time. I shall not until a candidate is permitted to stand of whose plans I approve, and whose good will I accept.
Even candidates who promise everything I want would not deliver any of it if elected.
Putin may not run
.
Elenskies the slime mold just cancelled those scheduled by scAmerica in nUkrania.
RFKjr revealed himself to suck the toes of yahooYahoo.
Trump Might be in jail.
Gavin might bang his campaign managers wives again.
YahooYahoo might be in jail.
Europe might awake from their deathstupor.
Killafornia has to get a senator and then elect another.
Any one of the above could get a real hanker for peace, or lead to the death of all.
Funtimes