Because of the current dramatic events, I’ve decided to write down a few strategic thoughts about and around Israel. It is important to understand some things to be able to assess the current situation as objectively as possible. The pictures, interviews, statements, and footage coming from both sides are currently only polarizing, and thereby they completely exclude rational thinking. The goal of this article is to zoom out from the myriad details, and give you a birds-eye view of the situation on the ground.
Since I have written about Israel several times before, it makes sense to re-read these two Articles in order to grasp my thinking as a whole:
Israel was founded by the Victors of WW2, with the help of the United Nations. The goal was to give Jewish people a common home at a place with historic value for the Jewish people. Given the persecution and genocides suffered by the Jewish people throughout the centuries, it was the right thing to do.
So, the Jewish state of Israel was founded in 1948 on its current territory. Even back then, the concept was that there would be a Jewish state and a Palestinian state. Unfortunately, right at the declaration of independence of Israel, a war broke out between Israel and its Arab neighbors. Which led to the division of the Palestinian lands in Gaza and the West Bank of the Jordan.
Due to hostilities between the Arab and the Jewish populations, the idea of two states became out of question.
All problems around Israel are rooted in this time. It was impossible to establish a Jewish state right in Arab lands, recognize it and let destiny take its course. A perpetual conflict was hard-wired into Israel’s history since then. If the Victors of WW2 had wanted to establish a safe and prosperous Jewish state which would thrive among and with the Arabs instead against them, then this was definitely the wrong approach.
The UN should have set up a lasting peacekeeping mission in Israel, which would be tasked to help establish both Israel and Palestina as two more-or-less symbiotic entities. And if the bridge-building needed decades of investment and state-building, then this is exactly what should have been done. Both states should have been built up in prosperity and dependency on each other and cultivated for at least some five decades in order to get all the generations of hate out of the Life-Cyle.
Instead, they took two scorpions, threw weapons in, and let them fight for entertainment. Okay, that was exaggerated, but I wanted to make the point.
Israel is a child, born of violence instead of love. This child had an extremely violent childhood and youth. It was forced to fight constantly, literally a battle for life or death. It is the fault of neither the Jews nor the Arabs. It is solely due to the mismanagement of the founding of Israel by the UN. Of course, the Soviet Union also did not do the very best job in the creation of Israel. Nevertheless, the Western empire took patronage over Israel, and was later the sole culprit for the cultivation of this violence-addicted class of politicians.
Israel always needed to rely on itself with regards to defense, at least in terms of manpower. The weapons were delivered by the Americans, yes, but the fighting has been carried out by the Israelis. Which means, in turn, that they have always lived under constant threat of their own destruction.
Not only the Soviet Union, but also the West could have managed things differently.
Well, this constant threat of destruction in the face of a quantitatively much larger enemy changed the Israelis. It made their reaction to every single small threat violent and brutal, because their goal was to deter their enemies from ever again trying to destroy Israel. Hence the acquisition of nuclear bombs.
I want to reiterate that Israel has been taught by its own history, since “childhood”, that in the face of a threat, you must punch so hard that the enemy won’t try it again for a long time. By the way, this is not my opinion or justification, I only present some facts from the past. No personal opinions included.
A chain of events cultivated a certain class of political leaders, civilians, and settlers in Israel that is infested with hate and violence. Hate and violence that they learned over many years, from war to war and from generation to generation.
Let’s take Benjamin Netanyahu as an example. His brother was killed by a Palestinian group while he was trying to free hostages as commander of a special-forces unit. That was back in 1976. That Netanyahu is not the biggest friend of the Palestinians is probably somewhat understandable. His current actions and decisions, of course, are under no circumstances justifiable or acceptable. Most likely they will result in severe war crimes, which is, as I said, unacceptable.
Now one could ask, why did these Palestinians take hostages, so that Netanyahu’s brother had to free them? Did Israelis kill their relatives earlier? This is an infinite wheel which goes back to the creation of Israel.
Again! It was created the false way! Neither Israel is to blame for its violent behavior nor the Palestinians for their struggle for freedom. The Victors of WW2 are to blame for what they have created and cultivated.
Of course, this doesn’t change a thing, that what is currently happening is entirely unacceptable. Gaza is so densely populated that with the current areal bombing we can expect mass civilian casualties. This has to stop, or at least the civilian population needs to have an opportunity to evacuate to safe places.
As in reality, if a child was raised in violence and the child becomes a murderer as an adult because of his traumatic past, the adult is still liable for its crimes. And so is Israel.
Here is the most important point. Even though Israel is a Jewish state, it is a state. The state is liable for its actions. Not a religion or a people. No general accusation. If THESE Jews in Israel are acting THIS way, it doesn’t mean that all Jews worldwide are acting the same way. If they have been raised in a good environment, they fit into society like everybody else. See the Jews in the United States and also in the Slavic countries. At least, those who survived WW2 and did not emigrate to Israel. This is what I constantly try to say: It is not the Jewish people of the world who are being bad, nor should they be blamed for all evil in the world. If we look short- or medium term, we could blame Israeli politicians and/or the Arabs for their constant efforts to destroy Israel. Strategically said, the victors of WW2 are to be blamed for the situation.
I have given some examples here. Of course, I blame neither the Israelis/Jews nor the Arabs for the situation but as I said, it is the result of the wrong approach to the creation of Israel. It should have been made by the Victors of WW2 under their guarantees and investments in both Israel and Palestina and WITH the Arabs. As a long-term project. Today we have a mess.
There is a solution, which I will discuss it later.
I need to clearly highlight that there are beneficiaries of the suffering of both the Palestinians and the Israelis, such as the people who sell weapons to all the parties. Initially, this was both the West (Israel and some Arab allies) and the Soviet Union (Other Arabs).
But this is the smaller piece. The bigger piece of the cake is oil. Before the creation of Israel, (Western) colonial powers controlled the oil of the region by having the Arab states as colonies. With the need to release them into “independence”, it still has been necessary to keep control of the oil price to not let the Arabs dictate the fortunes of the Western and Soviet economies with real market prices.
Instead, it was beneficial to divide the Arabs into many smaller states and having them in constant conflict with each other and Israel. This ensured for the bigger powers the opportunity to “protect” themselves for certain benefits, such as strategic access to “their” oil. The scheme goes further. The oil is being bought with Western/Soviet currencies, which can/should be reinvested in the West/Soviet Union for weapons and protection.
Later, the Soviet Union stopped doing this, and they invested heavily in their partners in terms of infrastructure and education. See Syria and Egypt. Investing in and developing a partner is more beneficial than simply milking it to the bones. (See the West and Africa vs China/Russia and Africa).
The ultimate justification for the western empire/oligarchy (see Economics and Empires 5) to keep this scheme going was the subjugation of Saudi Arabia. Forcing it to sell Oil only for Dollars and in return protecting it, etc. Taking full control of the world’s economy by manipulating Oil prices through Saudi Arabia, and thereby through OPEC on Western terms and benefits.
For this scheme, Saudi Arabia needed to be constantly under threat by Iran and Israel. To be forced to re-invest a certain agreed percentage of the Oil Dollars back into the American Military Industrial Complex. Similar schemes were applied to most of Israel’s neighbors. The few that didn’t comply have been destroyed. Ask Iraq how it is doing.
Here is the most important thing: From my point of view, it is not Israel (Tail) which wags the dog (US) nor is it the other way around. The Western Oligarchy (Economics and Empires 5) which has been based in several western countries for centuries, wags both the US, Israel, and all other Western host nations. This will be explained in great detail in the coming article.
The suffering of Israel and Palestina is beneficial to these people, and therefore cultivated further. There is no reason to change the status quo. You see, as soon as things get dangerous, American aircraft carriers (not for the benefit of the American people, but for the Western Oligarchy) instantly appear next to Israel to protect the status quo. Perpetual mutual slaughter.
This has to end. No, not Israel has to end. I’m fully for the existence and prosperity of Israel. But the externally cultivated perpetual hate and conflict has to end, and it absolutely can end.
After the Six-Days-War in 1967, the UN Security Council agreed upon Resolution 242, which should have led to the establishment of two states (Israel and Palestina). This should have been done in 1947/48.
The formation and establishment of two states under UN guarantee is the only solution to put an end to the perpetual conflict. Separated by whatever you want: Fences, UN troops, whatever. The important thing is that the borders of both states need to be guaranteed, by all members of the Security Council. This is the premise of Resolution 242.
All people in the region would deserve the same prosperity and security, Arabs and Jews. Unfortunately, the main patron of Israel, the United States, does not force Israel to implement this, and Israel is not doing it because it would lose territories and settlements. The United States could force Israel to do it. But it won’t.
And here is where Iran comes into play, pursuing the other extreme: The full “removal” of Israel. Therefore, it has created an axis of resistance with the help of its Quds Forces. The Quds Forces are part of the IRGC (the Revolutionary Guard). The Quds Forces are tasked to form, organize, finance, equip, and command organizations and governments across the Islamic World for a war against Israel. Well, in fact Quds means Jerusalem. The goal is to free Jerusalem actually, and not destroy Israel.
The balance of forces has always been in favor of the West and Israel. That balance has now shifted. There are two reasons for this. First, the emergence of cheap, highly capable missiles and rockets that are able to hit targets in Israel, and also American Navy ships off the coast. The resistance around Palestina has been cultivated during the whole time of the conflict in Syria. Fighters have been trained in Syria in the fight against… “western backed insurgents?” 😊Missiles and rockets have been produced in quantities like sausages and transferred to Gaza.
Second, of course, is that the military powerhouse of the Oligarchy, the United States, is no longer able to project power against BRICS. It is severely, but not fully, depleted. Moreover, the conflict in one place would mean, because of the depleted resources, vulnerability at all other places worldwide. There is no way that the US Navy is going to eat Resistance Axis missiles in the Mediterranean only to witness the invasion of Taiwan, or unrest in other places.
You can guess what we Serbs will do instantly, if the Americans were forced to withdraw Camp Bondsteel from our soil because the resources would be needed elsewhere… 😊
The United States cannot currently project power anywhere because the whole house of cards would come down in at least eight other places in the world, where it forcefully divides other countries with their military presence. Here are just a few examples:
Ukraine and many other ex-Soviet countries
Entire Arab World
No, the balance of power has shifted to the Axis of Resistance.
I want to be honest here, I assume that the current operation of Hamas, which will most likely spread to Hezbollah and maybe even further, is controlled by the Iranian Quds Forces. It is the very reason for their existence. Iran saw that the balance of power is in their favor now, and it is now willing to act. I assume the goal could be to defeat Israel and force the “Two States” solution upon Israel. But I don’t (and can’t) know. And I will not value my own opinion in here. This is only a dry analysis.
What I can say is, it is deeply cynical and immoral to use the Palestinians as sacrificial lambs to activate the resistance plan. The slaughter of civilians and children in Gaza is unjustifiable. There should have been another way. I am assuming, without having any evidence, that the sacrifice of Gaza is the trigger for defeating Israel by the Axis of Resistance. And it could very well succeed. As I said, the balance of power is now on the Resistance side.
We at BMA can’t ever wish for war and death. We condemn any and every kind of violence against civilians on both sides, and we will certainly take no sides here. We condemn all the atrocities and war crimes by either side.
Unfortunately, as described in my previous article, it is most likely the plan to sacrifice Gaza to produce all the atrocities by the Israelis only to activate the Axis of Resistance. This is also disgusting, the same way as the aerial bombing of Gaza.
What is currently happening is coldly calculated determinism. Execute a major blow against the Israeli military and civilians and embarrass the Israeli government in front of its citizens. And see just what will happen. The blow and the danger are so big that Israel will instantly pivot to the existential threat modus. Which, as I have explained above, leads to the maximum projection of violence in absolutely all directions only to show their own people that everything is under control, and to show the external players that they don’t dare intervene, otherwise complete destruction awaits.
This was exactly calculated by the organizers of the attacks against Israel.
Determinism led to the full explosion that we are witnessing today. It remains to be seen what players will be involved and how the conflict might develop. I personally assume that the very least is the participation of Hezbollah as well, with the worst-case scenario being, of course, WW3. I’m sure reality will be somewhere in between.
The End or The Solution
Make no mistake. The current situation is absolutely a struggle of life and death for Israel. Well, at least for their political leadership. It is very much possible, depending on how big the conflict might expand, that Israel might lose and could be occupied by Arabs. Personally, I don’t believe that the goal is the destruction of Israel but the forceful implementation of the “Two State” resolution, on Arab terms. It is possible that this could happen. I can’t determine any probabilities here yet. We will see.
Israel has, as all other nuclear powers, a contingency plan, named “Samson Plan”. Which essentially means that it would discharge its whole nuclear arsenal against its enemies before it goes under. This is what makes me think that full destruction of Israel is not the plan of the Axis of Resistance. Rather some kind of “Regime Change” and implementation of Resolution 242.
Again, these are not my opinions. Only analysis.
China, from my point of view could and should be the key for the resolution of the conflict. Only China has the influence and standing to talk to all stakeholders. And to convince them. Recently, Russia’s President Putin expressed also his view that the only solution can be the two states solution. Hence, it can be assumed that this is a coordinated stance and that China shares the same view. The war, unfortunately, will take its course but the settlement could be mediated by China in behind-the-door diplomacy. We will see.
And here we come to my opinion 😊
I absolutely support the idea of a Jewish State. Of Israel. It should exist and prosper.
I absolutely support the idea of a Palestinian State. Palestina. It should exist and prosper.
What currently is happening is madness and it should stop immediately. Especially because of the civilians and the children… on both sides but in the current phase especially the Palestinian civilians.
There should be an international intervention sanctioned by the UN Security Council with the mandate to separate both parties. With the goal to immediately save as many lives as possible.
The Two States Resolution 242 needs to be implemented. But peacefully. All people in the region deserve lasting peace.
And one last thing. I want to warn you all. There have been camps until now. Ukraine supporters against Russia supporters for example. These camps are consistent with many other topics. Essentially, it is the anti-imperialists/sovereigntists against the empire supporters (most of them don’t even know that they support an empire).
With this new war, new dividing lines occur between all of us. Especially in the West. Even the both aforementioned camps are now further divided in Pro-Israel and Pro-Palestina supporters. And with the brutal, graphic and disgusting pictures that are arriving from the civilian areas, it polarizes all of us even more. This is intentional. Don’t fall for this trap. It is “divide and conquer”. Don’t let hate and emotions control you. Keep a cool head and evaluate all events rationally.
I stand my ground. BMA will stay neutral in this conflict. We are pro-Israel and pro-Palestina. Pro- civilians of both sides. These people are being played against each other for the benefit of others. We pray for a quick end and peace.
If need be, I will write an analysis of any further escalations. For now, each of us must try to keep a cool head.
[i] Edited by Piquet (EditPiquet@gmail.com)
Thanks for reading Black Mountain Analysis! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.