Introduction
This will be the last part of my three-part series about the conflict in the Middle East. I’m going to explain another few basics and to make some clarifications about my previous article, Genesis.
Background
See my previous two articles about the Middle East:
Clarifications
My previous article caused a lot of both criticism and very positive reactions. It was translated into several languages and released on several platforms. And this is exactly what I wrote at the end of the article: The situation is polarizing us all and most of us are led now by emotions.
I’m also not emotionless. I admit that I struggle to use X (Twitter) these days. The newsfeed about Gaza is horrific and it makes me very sad to see what is going on.
Let me say this: normally I don’t do such clarifications. But I do care very much about my readers and if I get criticized, I will at least give a little clarification. Not to excuse myself. No. I fully stand behind my analysis and I’m convinced it is right. But I think I did not explain some things well enough to make my thoughts better understandable. Let’s go through the three topics that I assume caused most of the questions/criticisms:
Does Israel have the right to exist?
Israel absolutely has the right to exist. And why does it have the right to exist? It has the right to exist because it was established and legitimized by the United Nations. By all major nations. The Soviet Union as well. In fact, the Soviet Union was one of the first nations to recognize Israel, even though Stalin was not the biggest fan of Zionism. Yes, the founding of Israel is based on Zionism and its theories.
Now one could start endless arguments about why all major nations supported the creation of Israel in the UN, including the Soviet Union. As well as arguments about what influence the Zionist Organizations of that time and the decades before had on the decision makers. But I will not go down that road. The fact is, it was legitimized by the United Nations. Even though I assume that Stalin had other plans with his support of the creation of Israel, and that he regretted it later.
By the way, if we take Kosovo as an example against my argument. Kosovo is the same story. According to the Resolution 1244 of the UN SC is Kosovo an integral part of Yugoslavia. Since Serbia is the successor of Yugoslavia, Kosovo is an integral part of Serbia. It doesn’t matter that some Western states and their vassals recognize Kosovo unilaterally. It is void by international law. Kosovo is Serbia by international law, decided by the highest UN authority.
Hence, in this discussion, Israel’s right to exist or not does not hinge on my personal opinion. It is the highest international law. And if you go down this road: What do the people who deny Israel’s right to exist demand? The right thing to do is to implement the UN SC decision of the Two States solution. By the way, also approved by the UN in 1945-1948. And later, again, in 1967 by the UN SC resolution 242.
Ultimately, we need to take the position of the decision makers of the time in 1945 into consideration. You can guess how the perception was back than after the revealing of the full scale of the holocaust at this time. The Nuremberg processes weren’t concluded nor started at that time so people looked for justice. From today’s perspective, after we have witnessed all the atrocities in the Middle East for more than seven decades, the decision would have perhaps been a different one. But if you go back to 1945 and put your “Stalin” or “Churchill” or whoever hat on, it would be very hard to not accept the plans prepared for decades by people like Theodor Herzl.
Hence, circumstances led to the decision to create the state of Israel back then. And it is international law. That is the explanation for this question. Or rather, so that you can understand my thoughts.
Should Israel be located where it is located?
Since I have no stake in this region, I will not burn my fingers here. I understand the historical implications why the Zionists wanted to create the state in Palestina. I fully understand also the Arabs who are against it since they live there and their ancestors were displaced, especially by a great share of people who were only Jewish in religion but not in ethnicity (Semites).
But I guess you will not distinguish people by blood and ethnicity for immigration if only a few months before millions of people were killed industrially in concentration camps because of their blood or ethnicity or because of their beliefs. (Be they Semites or not).
That was impossible for the UN. Hence, they took this decision and now we are where we are. This has nothing to do with my wishes. It is simply international law. And I want to bring all of my readers back to the situation of 1945 to understand why the leaders agreed to the creation of Israel. It was an entirely different situation and all the atrocities that followed have not been done yet. Again, perhaps decisions would be different from today’s perspective. And perhaps the location would also be a different one.
But it is not up to me to offer my opinion where Israel should be located but to objectively explain why the international community (1945 still “united”) decided as they did. And to highlight, since it was not only “The West” but the Soviet Union as well, that it was not only punched through by “The Zionists”. Even though they certainly did all the groundwork and preparations.
How long will the UN resolutions remain international law? M guess is: not so long anymore. You can read more about it in Economics and Empires 5.
Zionism
There are reasons why I will not go down the path to write about Zionism and the differences between Semites, Jews, and Zionists. That topic is so polarized and explosive that one would need to write dozens of books, beginning in the times of the Pharaohs, to get a more or less objective explanation. This is impossible and I won’t throw around the words “Zionism” and “Zionists” like they are candy. I consider that untrustworthy and others can catch readers/clicks/views/sympathy with that gimmick. Since the Middle East topic is highly polarized and is used to divide people (yes, us as well), we will stick with international law here, since all nations recognize it. Russia, China, and the rest of the Global South as well. The Two States Solution.
One last thing. I neither support Israel’s bombing campaign against civilian areas (looks like an actual war crime, exactly as the besieging of millions of civilians is) nor Hamas’ provocation to trigger exactly what is currently going on. Both actions are odious.
Iran’s reach
Many people, both in the BMA comment section and in all other communities, are constantly criticizing the notion that Iran could be behind the current escalation. They often arguing that Iran could not intervene because there are several countries between Iran and Israel.
This is my fault, because I did not explain deeply enough. Now I will go a little deeper.
The Quds Forces are created for exactly this task. Fight Israel at its borders and within Israel without using the Iranian ground forces in Israel. Iran can’t use its forces in Israel because there are several countries between them. 😊
The Quds forces are there to organize an Arab-wide front against Israel at the right time. When all are ready to bring down the Israeli government, and when Israel’s bodyguard (The United States) is weak. Remember Qasem Soleimani? All conditions are fulfilled and most likely Russia didn’t object ro the plan because of three reasons:
Stretch the Empire’s logistics even further worldwide. I wrote many times about that. Wars of Liberation. I assume there will be more fronts in distinct places of the world.
Trigger further division within the West.
Eventually implementing resolution 242. I’m sure the Axis of Resistance (Arabs) doesn’t have the green light to destroy the Israeli state. Most likely only a military defeat and a consequent regime change is allowed by Russia and China. Yes, China is also fully invested here.
Warning: This doesn’t represent our opinions/wishes, it is a dry analysis of what is known.
Axis of Resistance
Hence, at the right time, Iran will trigger the Quds Forces all around Israel and the Arab world to unite everyone against Israel. I am absolutely sure that preparations have been made. You can read that almost exclusively on BMA, because we can report unemotionally about the events.
The Quds plan is multi-layered and is being executed step-by-step. There is a lot to come, if Israel follows down the path/trap that was laid down for it. It looks like the United States knows/guesses what is going on and is trying to convince Israel to stop/delay the invasion of Gaza. We will see whether that will succeed or not. I don’t know. If Israel goes in, I predict its defeat. Not the defeat of the invasion forces in Gaza but the defeat of Israel as a nation with a subsequent regime change, managed by the Arabs under the supervision of the Global South.
All countries around Israel are being prepared by Iran and Quds. It doesn’t matter which branch of the Muslim faith they are following. They have one common enemy. Additionally, the countries of the Axis of Resistance are also being brought together by China and its investments.
Hence, for all the “There are several countries between Iran and Israel” crowd. “Iran” will not invade Israel. But armies and militias of all countries around Israel will. And there are more than enough Quds sleeper cells (Hit Squads, see Russian GRU in the West), ready to blow up strategic objectives in Israel. Moreover, the “countries between Israel and Iran” without any doubt will, at least unofficially, allow Iran to fire its tens of thousands of missiles and drones, after the Iron Dome and its stocks in the United States are depleted, over their airspace into Israel.
There is absolutely nothing that will be left in terms of military and civilian infrastructure. Even though I think, since I assume that the operation is approved by Xi and Putin, civilian casualties would need to be held as low as possible. They don’t want to end Israel.
Again, this is not the opinion or wish of BMA. This is an objective analysis of the situation, and known facts.
The United States in the Middle East
What can the United States do in the Middle East to help Israel? Apart from logistical support, absolutely nothing. And here is why: The United States have tens of thousands of soldiers in the Area. Some In previously-friendly states like Jordan and Saudia Arbia. Some in occupying functions like Syria and Iraq. There are almost no air defenses since the operations planning didn’t expect a large-scale conventional war against it in the Middle East. Why? Because divide and conquer was working fine. As long as the United States kept all Arabas fighting each other, there was no danger for the US to prepare itself for a big regional war against itself.
This ended with the reconciliation efforts by Russia, China, and Iran. Now all states are united (partly overtly and partly covertly) against the United States. It went down too fast.
The United States absolutely can’t assist Israel militarily in the region. It doesn’t have the strength/military power to do that. Don’t get me wrong. The US Army would still wipe the floor with Iran and all other Arab powers of the region combined. But only if it would concentrate its power and logistics on this region. Which it can’t. The Far East is binding colossal US military resources around China. Ukraine depleted a big share of its ammunition for land warfare.
To be able to protect Israel against a concentrated attack, which COULD (I’m not convinced, yet) follow after a Gaza invasion, America would need to abandon all/most other areas. Which it won’t. It is an unprecedented dilemma for the United States. It holds the whole Middle East as hostage to be able to secure Oil supplies and regulate the market price of Oil, and thereby the global economy. But the future markets are in Asia and Africa because the populations are there. The US (the Empire, not the US people) can’t abandon either the oil or the markets.
Believe me, it doesn’t matter how much they are cheering for Israel. The empire doesn’t care for Israel and its people. They only care to hold it in a hostile environment to be able to keep up eternal war in the region to control the oil supplies and its market prices. There is no love for Jews by the Empire.
If the war starts tomorrow, the Iranian army will not invade Israel (because there are several nations between Iran and Israel😊) but it would eliminate the US forces around itself and go into Iraq and Syria to free them. And there is NOTHING that the US forces could do against it. Nothing whatsoever, without jeopardizing all other regions worldwide. I pretty much pity those guys on the carrier battle groups in the Mediterranean in such a scenario. And that’s why the Empire is currently doing what it can to postpone the Gaza invasion to find other solutions. It has nothing to do with the hostages. Nothing.
All this shit can happen. And it can happen very soon. And if it happens then we will wake up in a new world overnight.
I hope all of my “There are several countries between Israel and Iran” friends now understand the purpose of the Quds Forces and the Axis of Resistance.
I won’t stop reiterating that this is not the opinion or wish of BMA. I personally am afraid as hell about this scenario. We are pro-peace. This would pretty quickly cost hundreds of thousands of lives. Possibly a million or more.
Exodus
Well, I described this already. If the plan is fully executed until its conclusion, Israel very likely will be militarily defeated. Entirely. Which would most likely result in a regime change and not in the end of Israel. Again, I assume that the plan is approved by presidents Xi and Putin and that the precondition is the minimization of civilian casualties and the continuation of Israel within the Two States framework.
Okay, I described some “black-and-white” scenarios here. The truth is always somewhere in between. And the beginning of a Gaza invasion is probably the trigger for a first step out of many, and so on. Hence, the region won’t blow up as soon as the first Israeli solider steps into Gaza. The reality has many shades of gray, as we all know. 😊I want to be more precise. Nothing is decided yet. Still, there can be a diplomatic solution between the West and BRICS+ (+ for Iran and Saudi-Arabia). And if the escalation starts, it is still not clear how far it will escalate and whether the scenario will go until its conclusion (full-scale Iranian attack against US Forces in the region around it?).
We can only talk about probabilities currently.
Samson
There is still our old friend Samson. More particularly, the Samson option. If Israel is about to go under, it would nuke all its adversaries. I personally assume that the Axis of Resistance accepts the martyrdom of several of its cities in exchange for freeing the region from the empire. Why am I talking only about several cities? I assume that here the tens of thousands of Iran’s and Hezbollah’s drones and missiles come into play. Their saturation strikes would aim at minimizing Israel’s possibility to get all nukes out in time. Some of course could blow up...
Final thoughts
There is a possibility that Israel or its services knew about the attack. I’m not entirely sure about it, even though I received some interesting reports privately. But, even if it would be the case, then only because of the current Israeli Prime Minister would want to use it to safe himself because of many internal problems for him personally.
I’m sure, the trigger came from Iran, by triggering the final Quds plan to bring down the Empire in the Middle East. Again, BMA doesn’t want or demand anything of this. Only peace. We use only the opportunity to analyze the situation.
[i] Edited by Piquet (EditPiquet@gmail.com)
"Both sides are odious" you immediately gave yourself away there. The actions of the armed wing of an occupied people against their occupiers and oppressors are not odious, they are entirely justified. Are you going to tell me that the armed wing of the Warsaw Ghetto were "odious". This is classic sophistry meant to hide the truth. Without Hamas the residents of Gaza are simply unarmed concentration camp residents, sheep ready for the Israeli slaughter and ethnic cleansing. Israel is a settler colonizing apartheid regime that wants to establish its own lebensraum based on the Zionist interpretations of the assertions of a religious text that is about as historically accurate as the Iliad.
The answer has always been simple, the UNSC takes the lands into its management by the necessary force and imposes the 1947 boundaries, which will involve the removal of all the illegal settlers. The school curricula will also have to be imposed, as with post-WW2 Germany to remove the teachings of religious supremacy and racist hatred.
Of course, this will not happen so Israel will continue on its course to eventual destruction as the power of the US and the West recedes. The Israelis are simply adding to the absolute hatred that will be rent upon them rather than seeking a true compromise (which they have never, ever tried). We are seeing the desperate thrashings of a declining Empire and its vassal.
The 1947 boundaries were imposed by a UN without the Soviet Union yet taking its chair at the UNSC and China represented by Taiwan. So these boundaries, which were highly slanted to benefit the Jewish population, were basically an imposition of the Western powers and lack any real legitimacy.
Aleks,
I am not going to make this a long comment. I might write a longer one later on (though I can’t promise because I don’t want to break my promise).
You’re too easy on Israel/Zionists and Jews. I’m not saying that the bulk of Jews and Israelis are to blame for all this. What I’m saying is they’re not just innocent bystanders that are being used by some hidden force like unwitting pawns.
I have studied both Jewish history and religion extensively, in addition to observations of modern Jews both in public and private. This is what I have to say.
The majority of Jews are brainwashed. In fact, person for person they are the most brainwashed people on earth. Since birth they are inculcated with two false axioms:
1) They are hated by everyone and everyone wants to kill them. Not because of their attitudes towards the nations they live among or their actions against those nations and/or its people. But because of their religion/ethnicity. Only because they’re jewish, and they’re blameless in all of it while the others are pure evil.
2) They are superior. They have a superior mind. They have a superior religion. They have a superior army. In fact, they are so superior that they represent a different kind of human that there are the Jews and then there are everyone else (goyim). I’m sure you’ve heard of the superiority of the “Jewish mind” or the purity of the “Jewish soul”. These statements are taken seriously. Some will say that’s strictly the Talmudic Jews (Orthodox and the like). Not true. Even secular Jews believe the same. They just don’t present it in religious terms.
These two points create a sense of supremacy and victimhood wherein
1) Any act they do that is demonstrably evil is accepted by them as justified,
2) The response to any perceived slight (real or imaginary) against them needs to be so great that the destruction of their adversary needs to be total regardless of how disproportionate the reaction is, and
3) They all need to stick together no matter how evil the act perpetrated is when the perpetrator is Jewish
Obviously that does not describe ALL Jews and there are some that have woken up from the brainwashing and speak out on the side of the truth (so called “self hating Jews”). However, you can see clearly from the reactions to the Gaza bombing and the plight of the Palestinians for the last 75 years that it applies to the majority.
So although, like you, I accept that a nation for the Jewish people has the right to exist, I do not - NOT FOR ONE SECOND - accept that they are innocent pawns in this great game. They are not only willing participants, they are also driving the train.
If you take that into account the calculus changes considerably.
I hope you do that.