Quick Update
Several topics regarding Ukraine [i]
Introduction
Hello community!
I didn’t plan to write further articles for some time because of my work but today I found a little time. I try to make this article as short as possible.
Cows and Ruminants
First of all, I’m not a cow or a ruminant. I do not re-chew said stuff over and over again.
I’m completely independent and I only issue articles if I have something new and important to say.
That’s why this article will be about reminding you about some stuff that I already said months ago, stuff that is still current and more than relevant. I could write the same stuff over again, with other words. But nope.
Moreover, I want to issue very briefly some new considerations. Please don’t take them as an analysis, since I do not have the time currently for proper research. Take them as opinions.
Strategic Considerations and Review
Basics
From my point of view there are exactly four people who are running Russia and its overall strategic trajectory. And I highly recommend that you listen carefully to each of their statements.
Which people?
Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation.
Dimitry Medvedev, Deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council.
Nikolai Patrushev, Secretary of the Russian Security Council. I would assume that he is the chief ideologue.
Sergei Naryshkin, Chief of the SVR. Russia’s foreign intelligence service. Espionage.
If these people say something, one should analyze their statements exactly. Usually, they speak more or less directly, or hinting at what they plan to do. This is what I did for years.
People have thought that Medvedev went mad once he was unleashed on Telegram, and that what he writes there is nonsense. Well… No! Go through each of his messages carefully and parse them bit by bit. He tells you plenty of strategic things. You only need to interpret these messages properly.
Now let’s take a look at this crucial message from Medvedev (machine translation by Google):
Here is a very interesting interpretation/analysis of this message by Andrei Martyanov. I’d recommend that you listen to it (cued to 11:48)
.
People have often accused my strategic analysis as wishful thinking. Unfortunately for them, the reality develops as I have predicted. That’s why I want to encourage you to read my three crucial strategic pieces. If you are new on BMA, perhaps you haven’t read them yet. If not, please read them now since they are more relevant than ever. I want to re-confirm my analysis here, including the fact that Ukraine will be liberated as a whole, from East to West. Maybe the West won’t be annexed, yes, but it will be first denazified and demilitarized. But enough re-chewing here. Here are the articles, please read them again:
In strategic terms there is absolutely NOTHING to add.
The whole game would change, of course, if NATO as an organization would decide to join the war on the territory of Ukraine against Russia. This is perhaps a topic about which I will write an analysis sometime in the future.
Step by Step Escalation
Some people and analysts have criticized my holistic strategic approach because they always argue that it is not just a matter of Russia’s goal or NATO’s goal. Yes, I’m a strategic thinker and that’s what I do in life and in my civil job. I do it every day and earn a living with it. This involves thinking on a horizon of years, and not just until tomorrow or the next few months. It is a reflex for me to think strategically.
Yes, Russia might have joined the fight with other goals. And officially the goals might be even different. But considering the whole inevitable (and I’m very optimistic, otherwise I would stop writing, because I would come to the conclusion that we all are going to die and it doesn’t make sense to waste another minute on writing) escalation spiral that will come with Ukraine’s incremental defeats, my conclusions are the only reliable outcome. And my strategic muscle/thinking is very well trained since I use it everyday for the strategic satisfaction of my customers.
This is a little clarification for the people who are thinking only in terms of several weeks/months and criticizing my holistic strategic approach.
I want to add… I’m not God. Everything I say could of course be entirely wrong. The good thing is that at least for now the reality is steadily confirming my analysis. But of course, the moment could come where I fail. That’s why it is very important to read as many sources as possible and come to your own conclusions.
Reindustrialization and Workforce
Russia has benefited from the sanctions in an enormous way. The decision of the West to pull out of Russia’s markets was a blessing for Russia. Now it can reindustrialize properly and make itself truly independent. Which it was NOT before 2022. All the stuff that earlier was procured abroad now needs to be either manufactured domestically (indeed ALL strategic goods) or purchased in the stable and reliable part of the global south.
This fact and the huge efforts for the war footing increased the demand for workforce immensely. The unemployment rate in Russia went down to somewhere like 3%. This is extremely low.
By the way, all major powers of the global south, BRICS and SCO are now engaged in resourcing/insourcing their strategic goods, and building up an industry that ensures strategic independence. This absolutely makes sense, since the West is about to leave the chat within the next decade. All powers are trying to position themselves in the best possible position for the emerging multipolar world order.
But let’s do some math for Russia. I need to admit that my numbers are estimates because as I said, I don’t have the time to wait until August to conduct the research.
Let’s start:
145,000,000 people (Russian population) x 70% (available for work) x 3% (unemployed) = approx. 3,000,000. Or 3 million.
Why did I do that math? As preparation for the next topic.
Prigozhin, Scott Ritter and Further Mobilizations
Some time ago I had an interview with Scott Ritter. Check it out here:
https://bmanalysis.substack.com/p/interview-series-part-1
Scott, when asked whether it is realistic that Russia will reach the Polish and Hungarian border answered that it is not realistic with the current configuration of the Russian armed forces.
He is entirely right!
I explained it half a year ago here. Several further mobilizations would be required to reach the Polish and Hungarian border, provided that Ukraine would not surrender earlier. Which is almost impossible since “Ukraine” sits in Washington and Washington’s objective is to destroy as many Russians and Ukrainians (and Ukraine’s infrastructure and industry) as possible. To damage Russia for decades to come.
Please re-read it. It is very important.
But how to mobilize?
Russia’s economy and industry is geared to meet domestic demands and to prepare itself to enter the new emerging open world market with its goods, apart from its resources. Russia is rebuilding its industry and needs a whole lot of people to carry out the work.
I assume Russia needs between one and two million soldiers in Ukraine. Not as fighting troops. Ukraine’s army is soon destroyed. But for the following activities:
Securing the rear.
Logistics.
Rebuilding.
Denazifying.
Demilitarizing.
Counter-insurgency.
Saving kitties from trees. 😊
Deter NATO from entering Ukraine as the Russian army approaches Poland.
I’m pretty sure that we will see exactly this. Further mobilizations for the sake of the abovementioned activities.
Now there are two problems:
Where to get the people? Russia has now 3 million unemployed people. The rest are needed for the already explained emerging world markets. And with the proceeding industrialization this number will shrink since more and more factories are going to be built. Yes, Russia is currently in an increasing planned economy phase, and it is necessary to quickly bring the country to a position to be competitive against the other BRICS/SCO etc. partners. I see a combination between planned- and market economy in Russia in the future. Not only in Russia… 😊 I don’t say that it is good! But for the transition it is necessary.
To get one to one and a half million more soldiers into Ukraine, Russia would need to cannibalize and jeopardize its industry and competitiveness. At least for a certain period of time.
It is clear that you can utilize only a few of these three million unemployed as workers and frontline troops. But by deduction these three million are not:
Electronic warfare experts
Air defense experts
Intelligence experts
ISR experts
Drone operators
Pilots
Etc.
You get my point?
These people would indeed need to be cannibalized out of the civil industry which would cause some damage. Without any doubt. That’s why the SMO is designed to sustain as few casualties as possible and to need as few troops as possible to achieve its goals. Well, for Donbass, which was the initial goal this might have been sufficient. For the whole of Ukraine —rather not!
To go to the Polish borders bears huge risks. And the possibility for greater casualties is very high. At least in the beginning we would need to see some bigger offensives to break the neck of Ukrainians’ organized resistance. Which in fact has currently already started. (Only that Ukraine is coming for slaughter to Russia and not the other way around). Moreover, we must expect some insurgencies along the path and in cities. And last but not least, NATO would certainly start huge diversionary activities in Russia’s rear. See the British S.A.S. etc.
To convince the Russians of the necessity to go to the Polish border, and to endure everything which will come with that (Militarily, economically, and socially) the blood of the Russian public and population will need to boil. They will need to be brought to a point where every single Russian wants to personally go to Lvov or even Berlin to stick the Russian flag on that soil.
And here comes our friend Evgeny Prigozhin into play. He’s responsible for PR and his audience is:
Russian public.
Wagner assault detachments (Motivation).
Ukrainians (Deception).
See my article here about him and here the article by my friend Julian, based on my article.
Currently, Prigozhin is about to prepare the Russian public for mobilization and for the inconveniences which will come with the bigger offensives that are about to unfold. He is screaming it out very loud and the Russian !STATE CONTROLED! media is broadcasting it all over Russia. Soon the Russians will start to invade Ukraine actually with shovels if there is no mobilization. And that is exactly the goal. When this point is reached, and the friendly British S.A.S starts another attack on the Kremlin, a dam, or something similar, then Putin will have the critical mass to move into the next phase. Again, re-read my strategic pieces.
One additional piece of information: As opposed to the four leading figures of Russia (described above), one must not take Prigozhin’s words literally. He has another job. One always need to ask oneself what are the goals of the Kremlin and how can his words help to achieve these goals? And sometimes one need to think a little more to come to the correct conclusions.
Operational Considerations and Review
Sheep business
Do you remember this proud sheep-in-chief from my fourth operational update?
The boss sheep (President (???) Zelensky?) was standing on the edge of an abyss and was thinking whether to jump or not. That was a month ago, when I described the coming Ukrainian offensive. In the meanwhile, a decision by this sheep has been made. It ordered the herd to jump. The herd is still in the process of jumping as I write this article. We are talking about tens or hundreds of thousands. It takes a while.
Ukrainian offensive
That was a cynical way to describe that the (last) Ukrainian offensive has started now openly. From the beginning of May it started already by probing the frontlines and accumulating forces. Now the main attack has started. I wrote in detail about what is to be expected from it. I have nothing to add. It is entirely valid and my predictions seems to be correct. We will see how it develops.
Please re-read these two articles for more information about the offensive:
My reporting
Of course, I could start analysing the offensive in detail. But I won’t.
I have no time until August. Even this article wasn’t planned.
I already lined out my operational thoughts about it. See above. They should be valid for some time.
I see no point in reporting about the main slaughter of two Slavic brothers. As you know, I’m also a Slav and I have no joy in this. Moreover, many friends congratulated me that my abovementioned two articles nailed exactly what is about to come in terms of the offensive. Yeah… From a professional standpoint I appreciate that. From a human standpoint I can’t eat enough because of how much I would like to vomit.
We Slavs are again killing each other on a large scale on the behalf of the West. And they are popping champaign bottles in celebrations.
Mike and I experienced this shit on the Balkans in the nineties already. I think we have no joy in lining out in detail the slaughter that is going on there since we experienced it personally already.
Fuck that. I for my part won’t analyse the tactical battles. If Mike or Piquet want to do that, they are entirely free to do that.
In the meanwhile, I want to recommend two sources if you are interested in almost real-time reports and analysis over the tactical situation:
The Slavyangrad Telegram channel. My primary source for war updates and reports. (English)
Simplicius the Thinker. He writes almost daily summaries of events that happened previously. (Substack)
Slaughter
In my previous article I lined out that the professional Ukrainian western trained army needs to be entirely destroyed to activate the next phase of the war. All parties, east and west, know that. The process has started with the offensive. For the last four days, we have seen daily Ukrainian losses of approximately 1,000 dead per day plus the wounded, which are more. And that is just at the southern front in Zaporizhia. The Eastern and Northern fronts are not included in this number, and those numbers are also very high.
And the intensity is about to dial up. Hence, the casualties will also increase. This epic slaughter could be over sooner than expected… Maybe it is better… to shorten the suffering. As I said, I do NOT enjoy this.
Two more thoughts:
Russia needs to destroy the enemy with all available means currently. This is not my wish; this is operational reality. The enemy is absolutely determined to destroy all Russians in its way to the Black Sea. If Russia shows weakness or lack of determination, the enemy will use it and kill as many Russians as the Russians allow. Hence, Russia is currently shooting with absolutely everything it has on the approaching enemy forces and on his rear. It is an absolute slaughter on an epic scale not seen since WW1 and WW2. Going on currently as I write these words. The number of 1,000 dead/day will likely increase by far in the next few days as Ukraine tries to break through.
I just wanted to explain that this situation is NOT A GAME. The Russian soldiers are also fighting for survival in their trenches and, again, everything is currently being hammered down on the Ukrainians and even on their wounded and on damaged vehicles.
I stop here. I wrote already far more than I wanted.
Doctrine
I want to highlight one fact that I did not read somewhere else. Hence, I want to present it. The Ukrainian tactics reminds me of the US playbook (it is available somewhere on the internet) from West Point to fight Russian BTGs (Battalion Tactical Groups). With which the Russians started that war. I want to break it down in one sentence, even though it is far more sophisticated of course. It is about to saturate the Russian artillery and reconnaissance forces with XYZ of a single BTG and thereby to break through the Russian lines.
It is highly likely that they planned accordingly. Or at least took its content into consideration.
Nevertheless, Russia decided to transform its forces back from the new “modern” BTG tactics to the old and proven Soviet military organization. With battalions, regiments, brigades and especially also divisions and armies. That plugged many holes. Especially, since the first partial mobilisation.
This is currently exactly the rock which Ukraine wants to break by banging its head against it. What happens when you bang your head long enough against a rock? Exactly, that’s what will happen very soon with Ukraine as that offensive (there is still power and blood left to bang that head against that rock) is concluded.
Read my article about those doctrines here for details.
That’s all about the offensive.
Dam
Just a short observation here about the damaging of the Kakhovka Dam:
It was planned for months on the other dams, upstream on the Dnieper, which have increased their output to increase the water level (pressure) on Kakhovka Reservoir and Dam.
It frees Ukrainian forces from Kherson to be used in the mass suicide in the Ukrainian offensive.
It fully dominates the Western media. The Ukrainian mass suicide, pardon, offensive isn’t taking place at all. Not a single word about the thousands of Ukrainians that died the last few days in this “not taking place” offensive.
What a coincidence?
I won’t speculate here at all.
I personally think that the destruction of the dam isn’t helping either Ukraine or Russia. It helps a third party, and that’s the West. It covers the full-blown mass suicide (aka Ukrainian Offensive) that is currently taking place in the Western media. British S.A.S again? I don’t know and I won’t speculate here. I only wanted to communicate my media observations.
For an expert technical analysis please read the article of
Negotiations
My analysis that Russia will eventually knock at the Polish door implies already that there will be no negotiations or freezing or whatever. The West of course will try to conserve the current frontlines. It is still near enough to threaten Moscow with missiles etc.
Well, Patrushev and Medvedev already lined out that this is not going to happen.
This war is existential for both NATO and the West. When Russia reaches the Polish border, its over. For NATO. Well at least one dimension. The second dimension, which of course is the macro-economic (Dollar) is proceeding in parallel. I will write about it in Economics and Empires 6.
Hence, Russia cannot allow NATO to control a single tiny bit of Ukraine and NATO cannot allow Russia to control Ukraine. The one status is consequently the end for the other party. Hence, this fight will be carried out until one of the two (Russia or NATO) is dead.
As we all hope, and I think and believe of course, this is predicated on no direct clash between the NATO organization and Russia. It is still possible that one or more of the Baltics or Poland will get an individual beating/spanking by Russia in case they do something in Ukraine that was not agreed upon in advance. Yes, agreements for ceding Ukrainian land are indeed possible. Especially Lvov.
Further considerations
With this, I want to warn my fellow Slavs. Especially those in countries neighboring Russia. Or being in Russia’s vicinity. Not because Russia wants to invade them. No.
As we know, Ukraine will soon lose its professional army. The West will be in urgent need of further foot soldiers to fight Russia on the territory of Ukraine.
Whether that is realistic and doable is another question. But this is clearly a sign that NATO and the West are considering a further depletion of Slav people as cannon fodder against the Russians to spare the West’s own troops and people. We should be extremely cautious, keeping the eyes open for false flag events within these countries that could be designed to mobilize their population for an intervention within Ukraine.
Especially, in danger are:
Poland
Romania
Baltics
Georgia
For now, I see no signs but the escalation degree is yet not high enough for such events. When Russia starts to move further West, such events could occur perhaps.
[i] Edited by Piquet (EditPiquet@gmail.com)
Excellent!
I follow many feeds from both NATO/Ukraine and Russia, but your series of analyses are by far the most cogent. Your background in the dissolution of Yugoslavia gives you a better perspective than all other writers. Thank you for taking the time to author the articles , and for adding other writers to your BMA series.