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Excellent!

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Thanks. Yours as well 👍

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Jun 9, 2023Liked by Aleks

Whole-hearted admiration and affection for the Serbs: thinkers like you and Mike M., great patriots (I will not name them to avoid irritating the algorithm), sportsmen like Djukovic, etc..

I am not a Slav so when talking about Slavs I am talking through my hat, but it's my hat...

Not all Slavs are created equal. Maybe the problem with some of them is just their diet. Maybe the Poles eat too many sausages and the Galicians in Ukraine eat some bad mushrooms. The Bulgarians are too enigmatic to fathom since they nod to say "No" and shake their heads to say "Yes."

Go Serbs! Go Russia!

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Jun 9, 2023Liked by Aleks

Thank you. Rest, replenish, restore…God, family…💙🇷🇺❤️

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Jun 9, 2023Liked by Aleks

Absolutely, my friends. I do have my permanent residency in….Mexico. The Great Work continues. Such grief, soul loss. My time is short, pray, action. God will guide. 💙🇷🇺❤️

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Jun 8, 2023Liked by Aleks, Mike Mihajlovic

I follow many feeds from both NATO/Ukraine and Russia, but your series of analyses are by far the most cogent. Your background in the dissolution of Yugoslavia gives you a better perspective than all other writers. Thank you for taking the time to author the articles , and for adding other writers to your BMA series.

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Thanks for that great comment 👍

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Jun 9, 2023Liked by Aleks

Yes! The best💙🇷🇺❤️

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Jun 8, 2023·edited Jun 8, 2023Liked by Aleks

Your and Martyanov's no-nonsense analyses are excellent. Can't wait for those war-crimes trials to begin!

Thank you for all the time and effort you invest in your Substack for us.

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I think the words of Rasmussen are ominous. If any of that list gets involved then it’s only one step away from asking for Western forces to get involved. If that happens I expect Russia won’t be fighting them alone .. and then we get truly to the third.

I don’t see Georgia going for it. But I definitely see the Baltics. Poland is a toss up but lately they don’t seem as keen as at the start of the war. At least not overtly with official Polish boots on the ground. Not sure about Romania but they seem to be somewhere in the vassal state between the Baltics and Poland.

I mentioned before that I am not as optimistic as you are with regards to the prospect of avoiding WW3. The way I see it there is one thing that can avoid this: economics and the USD. The worse it gets for the west and the faster de-dollarization happens, the more they want to but the less they can push. If it’s too slow they can mitigate the worse effects and try again. If it’s too fast it’ll freak them out too much that they’ll do what desperate empires always do and throw everything at it (with a lot of propaganda and control of the local populations). So it has to happen quickly, with the right pace, and in sync with events in Ukraine and possibly Taiwan.

My 2 roubles ;)

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Jun 12, 2023·edited Jun 12, 2023Author

I fully agree with you.

Please, keep one thing in mind... no one wants to go into a big war.

At least the people don't want.

And that's why through human history the politicians always "motivated" the people will all kind of "false flags" etc.

See "Gleiwitz" for WW2 for example.

There is a possibility of Gleiwitz 2.0 as the Russians are approaching the Polish border.

But, as you correctly said, the military pressure needs to be synchronized with the Dollar pressure to avoid WW3 emerging from Ukraine.

My estimation, and I could be entirely wrong, is that there is a probability of 15% that this will fail and we enter WW3.

15% is catastrophic high...

Just imagine playing Russian Roulette with a revolver with 6 chambers...

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💯

It is also important for the populace in the west to know the truth. Do not underestimate Russia’s and China’s capability. Understand that the great majority in the world are not with your leaders. Your leaders are only working to protect their empire and they are willing to sacrifice many of you for it up and including WW3 and general thermo nuclear war.

Most importantly, that there is a better way.

The more people in the west know these facts, the safer it is for humanity at large.

That’s why your Substack, Simplicius, The Duran and many others are extremely important.

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I know the Polish mentality well. Too many Poles would gladly slit their own children's throats if that meant that an American would pat them on the head and call them "good dog!" That goes double if their children's deaths somehow would spite Russia.

If you think that this is hyperbole, consider how Poles embrace the direct biological and ideological descendants of the very people that so gleefully murdered their grandparents in 1943-44. I hardly know a Polish person who did not lose relatives in that slaughter. But they don't care, as long as their American masters are pleased.

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I agree but let me clarify..

The level of Russophobia was off the charts at the start of the war but seems to have moderated somewhat. I suspect it has nothing to do with loving Russia more but with realizing things are not going according to the Americans plan.

News reports about farmers disputes. Report about wanting to freeze the conflict to get rid of the refugees. Demanding more results from Ukraine. I also haven’t seen many hugs lately between Zelenskyy and Duda 🙂

There was an article in Politico (some western MSM) saying how Poland is good for supporting Ukraine but they’re not really a democracy (because of abortion laws or some such) which is code for “we don’t give a $hit about your democracy - do more for Ukraine” pressure tactic. Meaning Poland is not doing enough.

Also there are definitely some who embrace Nazi ideology but I’m not so sure the government or most people care much for modern day Germany. They see it as their chance to have more influence in the EU and since they are more directly useful as a rabid dog against Russia to the US, colonized Germany just takes whatever they’re given from them. And that’s another pressure point from the US on Poland: you want be a big guy in the EU (more influence), then you better keep throwing yourself at Russia.

What I’m saying is they may not be so eager to sacrifice themselves - even if they do enter (god forbid for their children’s sake) they’re more likely be pushed into it. If I’d have to guess, they’d much rather be given Lvov by Russia and be done with it.

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Keep in mind that PO, Partia Obywatelska, the Polish opposition, are more in line with EU values and are just as rabidly russophobic as PiS, Prawa i Solidarnosc, the ruling party in Poland.

Finally, remember what Goering had to say on getting the masses behind a war.

"We got around to the subject of war again and I said that, contrary to his attitude, I did not think that the common people are very thankful for leaders who bring them war and destruction.

"Why, of course, the people don't want war," Goering shrugged. "Why would some poor slob on a farm want to risk his life in a war when the best that he can get out of it is to come back to his farm in one piece. Naturally, the common people don't want war; neither in Russia nor in England nor in America, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or a fascist dictatorship or a Parliament or a Communist dictatorship."

"There is one difference," I pointed out. "In a democracy the people have some say in the matter through their elected representatives, and in the United States only Congress can declare wars."

"Oh, that is all well and good, but, voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country."

The man did have a certain amount of practical experience in the matter.

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Point taken. Thanks for the full quote.

The hierarchy of leadership is Polish Leadership -> Biden -> (whoever is behind him). In that case, the “Biden” either pushes Poland to enter the war (in-spite of the people natural sentiment) or is ambiguous about it, and Poland enters Ukraine, then it is inevitable that we will get US boots in Ukraine. When Poland (and co “group of the willing”) is defeated, if the U.S. does not intervene, then it is the definitive END of NATO - so they will have to, and we will be in WW3.

Hope on the Polish people might be light but it is the last thing stopping this. I would also hope that Western Europe (at least France and Spain) not only understand that but forbid Poland from doing this. I have no hope for the Germans they’re sheep.

I feel that without major economic/social/political upheaval or changes in the US we’re just going there, and the Russian and Chinese leadership know it.

We’ll see ... (one can only hope)

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Jun 9, 2023·edited Jun 9, 2023

Relying on a Pole to forego russophobia or disobey his American master is a fool's exercise. And Europeans make sheep look like individualists and anarchists.

Russia made a major miscalculation in not smashing Ukraine to bits from the outset.

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Going step-by-step was necessary. Russia was able to use the time to bring the rest of the world on side, shore up their economy, build up their forces and materiel, and strengthen their alliances. If they went smashing Ukraine from the outset they couldn’t have done any of it.

And with the change in tone we’re heading towards work done the whole of Ukraine not just the East.

All in due time.

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I wrote a piece the other day, as the Damm was blowing, about the US of Arrogance collective West wanting to destroy Ukraine by beating it against Russia, so then the West could invade Ukraine.

I was just guessing....and still hope Im Wrong, but the hegemon has no reverse gear, and nevermind the tires blew out, they will drive the bus into the ground.

But now Russia is looking at former Ukraine and hopefully planning to reclaim the vast wasteland, the only solution

Also not much talk about the blown ammonia pipe. But the timing.

Go Russia, God bless Putin.

Praying for peace, whenever that can be possible. Like if uKraine stops being willing to slaughter themselves trying to kill fellow Russians

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Jun 9, 2023Liked by Aleks

Yes - the Dam as cover for the disastrous performance of the counter attack.

Very much like MH17 which covered up for the disastrous performance of the Ukrainians getting surrounded in a great kotel back in 2014 leading to Minsk about 8 weeks later.

The west is doing pretty well in the only war they care about - the PR war. Biden might well get made candidate again, in which case re-election is not doubt organised.

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Zelensky is very useful to Langley as a hero. When he is no longer useful for his acting skills, he will be very useful to them as a martyr. So they will find a way to kill him that makes him appear to be a victim of Russia.

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It would be a masterstroke if Mr. Putin were to offer him asylum in Russia.

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Saudi Arabia has a long history of taking in expelled dictators.

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I dunno, Ghani is alive and well and living the good life.

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Jun 9, 2023Liked by Aleks

Your ‘small’ updates are better than most ‘in depth analysis’ I’ve read….

Wish these where weekly

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author

Thank you :-)

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Thank You, Aleks, for finding some time for this updating of analsis.

I remain concerned that western oligarchs and financial-capitalists "need" WW-3 to do their financial reset, yet not take blame , and so to maintain power.

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I fully agree. That was the way to do business before the appearance of nuclear weapons. But the game has changed with them... The global elites would immediately start WW3, in fact already decades ago, if there were no nuclear weapons.

But they don't want to die. They want power and influence. That is what keeps us away from WW3, at least for now...

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That is also my hope, "mutual assured destruction", but they may have too much faith in their deep underground military bases (DUMBs) and bunkers...

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I'm glad you decided to write a short update 🙃 The objectives of the SMO may require hunting down the remnants of the Ukrainian armed forces when the spring offensive is quelled. An issue may be if some of these forces flee to NATO countries. I would expect a Russian camp may need to be established on the country hosting the troops which fled.

And of course there's reports that the US is planning new bases in Finland and the Russians have started to establish a new army north-northwest of St. Petersburg. If I recall correctly, Russia was cool with the Fins joining NATO, but NATO bases and/or hardware pre-positioned would be frowned upon by the Kremlin.

Cheers from Cheyenne!

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I agree to every point :))

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Thank you !!

Ep. 2 – Jun. 8 – Cling to your taboos !!

https://twitter.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1666928190445477890?s=20

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Jun 9, 2023Liked by Aleks

MK, on high speed. I have lived many decades; this I know to be true, I feel “it” in my weary bones💙🇷🇺❤️

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On those who accuse you of wishful thinking - what would be wishless thinking? Thinking without a purpose or a goal seems to me to be sterile. There are no questions without answers, and the more difficult the question, the more beautiful the answer.

On the matter of rear troops, one to two million may even be deficient. They'll have to take over policing and other emergency services until proper police, fire department, et cetera can be set up, on top of garrison and likely being tapped for repairing things.

Saving kittens from trees is a strategic imperative! How can the people feel safe if they hear the mewling of forlorn kittens?

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I fully agree. Especially, about the kittens :))

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To answer your question regarding thinking - I do my best to accurate analyze and extrapolate from observable reality, keeping in mind that there is no assurance whatsoever that what I *wish* to happen *will* happen.

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Jun 12, 2023·edited Jun 12, 2023Liked by Aleks

Protect kitten!

Yeah there's a line between convincing yourself that something will happen via magical thinking and just thinking towards a particular purpose.

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1. Saving kitties from trees. 😊

This is important.

2. Open NATO intervention

This is coming, and is a direct result of Russian failure to apply enough force to crush the Kiev regime in the first phase of the war and its ongoing failure to respond to provocations.

The West has invested so much propaganda into propping up Ukraine and the war, that they cannot be seen to back down now. In addition, because Russia has failed when the West has ignored its red lines, the West has convinced itself that Russia will never respond, that Russia does not want conflict (they are right, but the West sees this not as reasonableness or humanitarianism, but as contemptible weakness).

It's coming. Force is the only language that the sociopaths in the West understand.

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Saving kittens 👍🤗💪

Well... I kindly (still) disagree, since we are in a world of nuclear weapons.

Without nuclear weapons we would be in WW3 long ago.

But a NATO intervention would lead eventually in extinction. And that wouldn't benefit... in fact no-one since all would be dead.

Let's pray that I'm right :)))

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I certainly hope and pray that you are correct, but yes, NATO and its constituents are that reckless, and with all the treasure and propaganda lavished on Kiev, they cannot be seen to lose.

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Jun 9, 2023·edited Jun 9, 2023Liked by Aleks

"We should be extremely cautious, keeping the eyes open for false flag events within these countries that could be designed to mobilize their population for an intervention within Ukraine.

Especially, in danger are:

Poland

Romania

Baltics

Georgia

For now, I see no signs but the escalation degree is yet not high enough for such events. When Russia starts to move further West, such events could occur perhaps."

As a Romanian I have to say that you should leave out of that list Romania and the Baltic countries. Romania because of to much domestic social and economic issues that lead to a completely abulic population, not to mention that most of the able bodied civilian personnel that have received military training are already in the late forties early fifties age group (I was the last contingent of mandatory conscription for military service after the fall of communist regime and I am born in 1974) resulting in not enough incentives to leave family and go to fight against Russia on foreign soil, false flag or not. The only mobilizing event that might happen is for the Russians to cross the Dnister river into Moldova.

The Baltics because low population number (approx 6.5 million together, resulting a insignificant military capacity (Lithuania has the largest military of the three Baltic states, with 23,000 total active duty personnel and 7,100 reserves , Estonia’s forces total 7,200 active personnel and 17,500 reserves and Latvia’s armed forces total 8,750 active personnel and 11,200 reserves.)

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Jun 12, 2023·edited Jun 12, 2023Author

Let's pray that you are right.

Romania has been used in the past to add troops to invading armies into Russia. See WW2.

If there is a strong false flag and a consequent large media campaign to boil the people's blood, anything can happen.

But again, I pray, that we will never experience such an event.

I fully see your arguments and again, I wish you are right.

Thank you very much for this insightful comment about Romania. I appreciate that.

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Jun 12, 2023Liked by Aleks

Romania joined the Axis powers in WW2 in 1941, after the Ribbentropp-Molotov Pact that forced Romania to give Bessarabia and North Bucovina to USSR. Like I said, the only mobilizing event for Romanians would be the Russia to step on the right bank of Dniestr River, which is historically part of Romanian territory. And why would Romanians fight for Ukraine while Ukrainian Authorities are forcingly closing Romanian Orthodox churches in North-Bucovina?

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Aleks ~ Salute ~ Superb writing perspective and analysis.. again.. perspicacity personified..

Further ~ May I repost on www.bestchinainfo.com ~ again?

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Sorry for the late answer. I was very busy. Don't need to ask Barrie. If you simply repost and reference it properly I'm glad if people share my articles.

Thank you.

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cheers Aleks.. wilco comrade ~ salute!

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It is interesting to see how the Polish military seems more opposed to this war now than just a few weeks ago. Maybe they were told that they were to move into the Ukraine in case the offensive would fail when Z was visiting recently? (Not invade, but 'assist' on the west side of the Dnieper) Maybe they don't like that? I could understand.

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I understand it also fully :)

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