I have read the 'Saker' for years & it was via his website that I learned of your blog here at Substack. He was right in saying that BMA does a great job in informing & analysing. I have read your 8 major articles and have learned alot, each one of them has contributed to many 'aha' moments for me.
Please keep up the exceptional work.
I would not worry too much about your "written English" as the message gets through loud & clear.
Furthermore I would be willing to wager that your "written English" is orders of magnitude better than my written Serbian
You are doing very well.
Thank you for you contributions, comments, opinions & analysis.
Hvala brate. Nedostajace nam Saker ali srecan sam sto ima ko da nastavi sa kvalitetnim sadrzajem i okupljanjem kvalitetnih ljudi. Zelim ti svu srecu a skupicemo nesto i za kaficu :)
Брате, не знам ко си, али свака ти част. Хвала Сакеру што те је препоручио. Нигде нисам наишао на овако озбиљне и добре анализе. Едукација, информација и уживање у најчистијој форми. Жив био ти мени!!! Косово је Србија!!!
Check out The Duran News Aleks. Don't know if you've seen this, but Alex and Alexander have Attorney Robert Barnes on. The latter part of the video they get into geopoltical and economics.
I find your analyses very interesting and very accurate. I am looking forward to your next article, as I read through your other articles. I hope you will keep writing. The world needs people like you. BTW, I understand the problem with proofreading. When I write professionally (ie. for money) somebody else does it for me. On Substack, I don't have anybody but ME - and I am dyslexic.
Hi Aleks - just found your site yesterday 1.30.23 (The Saker) and just now finished reading all of your posts. Much gratitude for this body of work. I'll have to read much of it again since I'm still earning my training wheels. I have three areas I'm not clear about: 1) How the US will manage a multipolar world?, 2) Who is the third party you mentioned? I'm not certain I know. I have a difficult time sorting out the "elites" that moved from the UK to America (Introduction article) and seem to be parasites on the US political and financial system, to understand how they factor in going forward. 3) If the "scorched earth" worked for the West, and depletion of military capability worked for Russia? Where does that leave us going forward?
Well, you put out some very intelligent questions. Which shows me, that you truly tried to understand my articles. Thank you.
I won't answer here, since you asked exactly the questions, that I know are still unanswered, and I designed a new series of six articles, to clarify these and more. So, you will get all your answers. But not yet. But I still will try to give you a very short and quick answer, where it is possible:
1) There are two geopolitical scenarios, that I see, how they could approach it. I will clarify these geopolitical scenarios in my coming article, which will be released sometime in February.
But what about domestic American politics? This will be another article, which I will release sometime in 2023.
2) I won't tell anything here. But you will know, when you read my new article series.
3) This will be covered by my next article (February) and also with my article about Asia, which will be released also in 2023.
After seeing Raevsky’s recommendation a few days ago, I have read everything here, and your lucid analyses clarify a lot, particularly about the reasons behind Russia’s seemingly ineffective approach to the SMO. Your framework seems very good at grasping the essence of what is happening. I look forward to reading your new series and operational updates. It would also be interesting to hear more about the framework you apply to analyze geopolitical, economic, and military events. About which books/thinkers and sources have been the most important in shaping your unique perspective. And what main variables to keep an eye on to understand the greater geopolitical picture.
wow, thank you. This is a very interesting and intelligent comment.
And the answer would be a whole article on its own :-)
I especially like the part, where you mentioned, that I have a "unique" perspective.
I'm not sure yet, how to answer this in a reasonable way. But I think, the comment section is the wrong place. Maybe I write an update in a few weeks about my sources etc.
I have for many years read many brilliant analysts and think indeed it is apt to say you bring something unique to the table. I particularly appreciate your efforts to simplify and to make your core assumptions explicit. For me, geopolitics has been one of many interests, but events particularly the last year has brought it progressively more into the center of my attention, to a point where I now contemplate making it my main intellectual focus, with more active synthetic thinking and writing in a field where I have so far mainly been reading and listening. As a Norwegian, I would like to be able to think a best possible course forward for Europe and Norway (which as an energy rich nation might constitute a somewhat special case in Europe), which makes the question about framework and sources important.
While there is a wealth of good analyses out there, often from people with great competence in some particular field, I find it hard to think everything together in a systematic way so as to see a clear hierarchy of relevance. I have not yet found a web site which brings together the main geopolitical data in an easily navigable and systematic way which makes it easy to see the big picture. While of course such a thing always would be an imperfect approximation, and intuition always in the last instances will be needed to grasp what is most relevant in a specific historical moment, it is important to stay in touch with the basic principles from the interrelated fields of economy, military science, geography, etc. Experts from one of these fields often overestimate their own perspective, while having crucial gaps in knowledge outside their own field. And then there are a few who are able to synthesize knowledge from many fields, which is what is sorely needed, but methods and core assumptions are often not made explicit, which makes it hard to make clear comparisons between perspectives, and to apply the same kind of thinking oneself.
Should you write an article about your sources, framework etc. it would be greatly appreciated!
Wow... Your comment is an article on its own haha :-)
Great! I appreciated reading it!
I could tell you how I've developed the ability to synthesize information from many different sources and topics into something simply understandable. But I can't give too much information about me, since I do want to stay anonym.
Yes, of course you will see, when I release such an article!
Greetings, and thank you for the great posts. I am one of the people reading your site at the suggestion of Mr. Raevski. An economic question, if I may: Is there any truth to the claim that economic ministers from Russia/BRICS say that if a country defaults on US (Western) debt, it would not be seen as a negative for joining BRICS?
I do not yet have details neither I know about this particular event.
But generally speaking it would make sense.
BRICS are going to create a resource based financial/economic system.
Hence, gold, gas, oil etc.
I assume, that we will see new methods of rating of a country, going forwards. Which will take into account its resources and many more factors. And yes, there is a possibility, that the Dollar debts won't be taken into account 1:1. But it depends whether the Dollar will join (Hence, the US) the multipolar (BRICS/SCO) system, OR whether we will see two parallel systems (Multipolar and US centric) at the same time. A lot of it, will be decided in Ukraine.
Most likely I will cover this in a separate article. But at the end of the year, when it will be more clear, in which direction we are heading.
I have also recommended your site on mine ("News Forensics") in my article comparing your analysis with Big Serge's. From my point of view, Big Serge is very good; your work is better.
I have read the 'Saker' for years & it was via his website that I learned of your blog here at Substack. He was right in saying that BMA does a great job in informing & analysing. I have read your 8 major articles and have learned alot, each one of them has contributed to many 'aha' moments for me.
Please keep up the exceptional work.
I would not worry too much about your "written English" as the message gets through loud & clear.
Furthermore I would be willing to wager that your "written English" is orders of magnitude better than my written Serbian
You are doing very well.
Thank you for you contributions, comments, opinions & analysis.
All the best to you.
Косово је Србија
Hi Ppapp,
thank you for this great comment.
I absolutely appreciate it.
And yes, of course, Kosovo je Srbija :-)
Kosovo Is Serbia.
Thanks for your job.
Indeed :-)
Thank you!
Hvala brate. Nedostajace nam Saker ali srecan sam sto ima ko da nastavi sa kvalitetnim sadrzajem i okupljanjem kvalitetnih ljudi. Zelim ti svu srecu a skupicemo nesto i za kaficu :)
Hvala tebi :) Uvjek mi je drago, da procitam i malo srpskog jezika ovde ;) Hvala ti.
I just sent another message to The Duran on their Locals page recommending you for a live show. No response from them last time.
Брате, не знам ко си, али свака ти част. Хвала Сакеру што те је препоручио. Нигде нисам наишао на овако озбиљне и добре анализе. Едукација, информација и уживање у најчистијој форми. Жив био ти мени!!! Косово је Србија!!!
Check out The Duran News Aleks. Don't know if you've seen this, but Alex and Alexander have Attorney Robert Barnes on. The latter part of the video they get into geopoltical and economics.
https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/upost/3460576/live-w-the-duran
I did today. Was great ;) Thanks.
Србине, брате, једва чекамо твоје следеће писаније. Поздрав и жив био!
Како волим да читам ћирилицу овде :-) Хвала брате.
A mega thank you from Portugal (empire´s satrapy planted by the sea) for the great informative job you are doing. Please carry on. We need you.
I find your analyses very interesting and very accurate. I am looking forward to your next article, as I read through your other articles. I hope you will keep writing. The world needs people like you. BTW, I understand the problem with proofreading. When I write professionally (ie. for money) somebody else does it for me. On Substack, I don't have anybody but ME - and I am dyslexic.
Thank you :-) I'm already on it. But it will take most likely some two to three weeks... We'll see.
Hi Aleks - just found your site yesterday 1.30.23 (The Saker) and just now finished reading all of your posts. Much gratitude for this body of work. I'll have to read much of it again since I'm still earning my training wheels. I have three areas I'm not clear about: 1) How the US will manage a multipolar world?, 2) Who is the third party you mentioned? I'm not certain I know. I have a difficult time sorting out the "elites" that moved from the UK to America (Introduction article) and seem to be parasites on the US political and financial system, to understand how they factor in going forward. 3) If the "scorched earth" worked for the West, and depletion of military capability worked for Russia? Where does that leave us going forward?
Thanks again, ~Carienn
Cairenn.... You just destroyed my plan :D :D :D
I'm kidding...
Well, you put out some very intelligent questions. Which shows me, that you truly tried to understand my articles. Thank you.
I won't answer here, since you asked exactly the questions, that I know are still unanswered, and I designed a new series of six articles, to clarify these and more. So, you will get all your answers. But not yet. But I still will try to give you a very short and quick answer, where it is possible:
1) There are two geopolitical scenarios, that I see, how they could approach it. I will clarify these geopolitical scenarios in my coming article, which will be released sometime in February.
But what about domestic American politics? This will be another article, which I will release sometime in 2023.
2) I won't tell anything here. But you will know, when you read my new article series.
3) This will be covered by my next article (February) and also with my article about Asia, which will be released also in 2023.
Cool. Thanks! :-)
After seeing Raevsky’s recommendation a few days ago, I have read everything here, and your lucid analyses clarify a lot, particularly about the reasons behind Russia’s seemingly ineffective approach to the SMO. Your framework seems very good at grasping the essence of what is happening. I look forward to reading your new series and operational updates. It would also be interesting to hear more about the framework you apply to analyze geopolitical, economic, and military events. About which books/thinkers and sources have been the most important in shaping your unique perspective. And what main variables to keep an eye on to understand the greater geopolitical picture.
Thank you for your great work!
Hi Novas
wow, thank you. This is a very interesting and intelligent comment.
And the answer would be a whole article on its own :-)
I especially like the part, where you mentioned, that I have a "unique" perspective.
I'm not sure yet, how to answer this in a reasonable way. But I think, the comment section is the wrong place. Maybe I write an update in a few weeks about my sources etc.
Thank you again, for your great comment.
I have for many years read many brilliant analysts and think indeed it is apt to say you bring something unique to the table. I particularly appreciate your efforts to simplify and to make your core assumptions explicit. For me, geopolitics has been one of many interests, but events particularly the last year has brought it progressively more into the center of my attention, to a point where I now contemplate making it my main intellectual focus, with more active synthetic thinking and writing in a field where I have so far mainly been reading and listening. As a Norwegian, I would like to be able to think a best possible course forward for Europe and Norway (which as an energy rich nation might constitute a somewhat special case in Europe), which makes the question about framework and sources important.
While there is a wealth of good analyses out there, often from people with great competence in some particular field, I find it hard to think everything together in a systematic way so as to see a clear hierarchy of relevance. I have not yet found a web site which brings together the main geopolitical data in an easily navigable and systematic way which makes it easy to see the big picture. While of course such a thing always would be an imperfect approximation, and intuition always in the last instances will be needed to grasp what is most relevant in a specific historical moment, it is important to stay in touch with the basic principles from the interrelated fields of economy, military science, geography, etc. Experts from one of these fields often overestimate their own perspective, while having crucial gaps in knowledge outside their own field. And then there are a few who are able to synthesize knowledge from many fields, which is what is sorely needed, but methods and core assumptions are often not made explicit, which makes it hard to make clear comparisons between perspectives, and to apply the same kind of thinking oneself.
Should you write an article about your sources, framework etc. it would be greatly appreciated!
Wow... Your comment is an article on its own haha :-)
Great! I appreciated reading it!
I could tell you how I've developed the ability to synthesize information from many different sources and topics into something simply understandable. But I can't give too much information about me, since I do want to stay anonym.
Yes, of course you will see, when I release such an article!
Greetings, and thank you for the great posts. I am one of the people reading your site at the suggestion of Mr. Raevski. An economic question, if I may: Is there any truth to the claim that economic ministers from Russia/BRICS say that if a country defaults on US (Western) debt, it would not be seen as a negative for joining BRICS?
Hi.
I do not yet have details neither I know about this particular event.
But generally speaking it would make sense.
BRICS are going to create a resource based financial/economic system.
Hence, gold, gas, oil etc.
I assume, that we will see new methods of rating of a country, going forwards. Which will take into account its resources and many more factors. And yes, there is a possibility, that the Dollar debts won't be taken into account 1:1. But it depends whether the Dollar will join (Hence, the US) the multipolar (BRICS/SCO) system, OR whether we will see two parallel systems (Multipolar and US centric) at the same time. A lot of it, will be decided in Ukraine.
Most likely I will cover this in a separate article. But at the end of the year, when it will be more clear, in which direction we are heading.
Oh, the article which deals with yours.
https://julianmacfarlane.substack.com/p/big-serges-big-surge
Thank you Julian. Your article is fascinating.
I absolutely appreciate it :-)
I have also recommended your site on mine ("News Forensics") in my article comparing your analysis with Big Serge's. From my point of view, Big Serge is very good; your work is better.
Thank you Julian. That's of course a big honor.
Just wait for the next article, I assume you are going to like it ;)
Great news Aleks. You deserve it all for your efforts.
Thank you Melody. You were one of my first followers.
Thank you for that.