I don't see Prigozhin's forces as much of a threat, nor do I see the Wagner forces backing an anti-Putin coup. This sounds like a psyop to me. I could be wrong, but we've seen these kinds of theatrics before.
Surprise operation to liberate Karkov? ... If it is not possible to move large forces without NATO awareness, then a deception operation to confuse the enemy is the only available option to keep some degree of surprise factor. Next 24h will tell.
When I turned on my phone this afternoon I saw a headline in a US news report and dismissed it. Then Weeb Union did a big commentary and his thoughts are similar to yours. All I'm thinking is how weird it is. Prigozhin has a history of trolling and mariscova so we can only wait for developments.
The more I think about it, the more this looks like the perfect deception. The West has been trying to achieve a coup in Russia for 20 years. So, Mr. Putin gives them exactly what they have craved. It is a deception in preparation for a real Russian offensive.
I slept now over it and I also tend to believe this scenario. It would also confirm my former analysis about Prigozhin. But we can't be sure yet. I hear Putin is about to deliver a speech soon.
My view on the actions by Prigozhin and the Wagner Group in Russia:
This started as a power struggle between Prigozhin and Shoigu. In the beginning of the Special military operation Shoigu and his team made mistakes and Prigozhin became of strong critic of Shoigu.
Prigozhin then had success in Bakhmut with Wagner Group presenting himself as a better military leader than Shoigu. In my view Shoigu then provoked Prigozhin by limiting ammunition supplies to Bakhmut resulting in Wagner Group losses and a strong reaction from Prigozhin. Many of you have seen the video of Prigozhin attacking Shoigu and the Russian military leadership.
Ammunition deliveries were restored and victory in Bakhmut was achieved but the video outburst by Prigozhin was likely counterproductive for him because the Kremlin and senior political leaders in Moscow saw him as a loose cannon who can’t be trusted.
Prigozhin doubled down predicting a massive loss for the Russian military claiming that it was not ready for the Ukrainian counter-offensive. He claimed that the Russian troops are badly equipped and poorly managed by Shoigu. With the Russian military successfully repelling the Ukrainian counter-offensive Prigozhin had played himself into a corner and his time was running out because Shoigu and his Generals delivered a major victory for the Kremlin.
In my view the actions by Prigozhin are an act of desperation because he has lost the power struggle against Shoigu and is likely facing serious retaliation.
Western media claims this is an attempted coup against Putin. That’s nonsense. The popularity of Putin within Russia and in the non-western world has never been higher. However this war between Prigozhin and Shoigu is an unwelcome distraction for the Kremlin and the most likely outcome will be the arrest or termination of Prigozhin.
source kimdotcom
"On strengthening security measures in Moscow - truth and fiction
We want once and for all to put an end to the strengthening in Moscow, which is now being spread on all Telegram channels in connection with the statement of Yevgeny Prigozhin.
At 2 a.m. on June 22 (a day and a half ago), units of the mobile reserve, individual military units, units of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the FSB, the Federal Security Service and the National Guard were alerted: information was received about the preparation of an armed attack on government facilities. We wrote about this yesterday.
The yellow danger regime was introduced for 10 days: this is due to counter-terrorism measures. All state facilities were strengthened, all outfits were necessarily reinforced with firearms with a proper supply of ammunition.
At the moment, the FSO and the FSB, together with the Ministry of Internal Affairs, are conducting an operation to search for Ukrainian sleeper cells and sabotage and reconnaissance groups (again: not the Wagners, but groups of the Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate). Judging by our information, in the course of operational actions, FSB officers were able to reach two agents of the Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate, who surrendered the entire chain of underground cells in the capital and the Moscow region. Now they are looking for a couple of dozen people who form the basis of the underground network of the Main Intelligence Directorate.
The fact that terrorist attacks and attacks on government facilities were being prepared is evidenced by the facts of undercover intelligence: employees of diplomatic missions in diplomatic diplomatic vehicles traveled all over Moscow, removed security, the order of service - then this information was transmitted to the Main Intelligence Directorate. A complex operation was being prepared.
Yes, the Ministry of Defense is now, to put it mildly, "discussing" the situation with Prigozhin and PMCs.
But the reinforcement measures in Moscow did not begin today - and not for such an occasion. "
This might be an intel op — stir up the pot and see what deep agents call home or get calls from home to get out on the streets and see what is going on. And yes these might be messages on a messenger system not real phone calls.
That is something I considered. It reminds me of a Star Trek Voyager episode where Paris was acting like he had a real attitude problem with the command structure of the ship but it was really all about ferreting out a traitor. It’s a very old tactic but it often works.
I can’t help thinking of mad Monk Rasputin and WW 1. He advised the Tzar not to go to war, and was urging him to make peace in 1916, if I remember correctly. He was killed by very rich aristocrats related to the royal family, and there have long been suspicions (starting with Nicholas) that a British secret service man was involved. Britain wanted Russia to stay in the war and not make a separate peace. Rrigozhin mentioning the war profiteering motive is exactly what outraged the common people in Russia who felt they were being slaughtered for the benefit of the oligarchs. They felt that whenever one of them has the ear of the tzar, that voice will be eliminated by the oligarchs pursuing their own , not the people’s interest. Hence, historians often see this murder as a major contributor to the revolution: No Rasputin, no Lenin. Of course, in this case it may be the opposite scenario - pro-war rather than peace. Perplexed
one more thought: what if this is supposed to trigger a coup not in Moscow but in Kiev?
Wagner’s doc” the best in hell” basically pushes Putin’s line “we are the same people “ = team white against team yellow, not Russians vs Ukrainians. Pointless slaughter for the benefit of Zelensky and the neoliberals, at home and abroad
Keep in mind that Martyanov has "friends in RuAF". ;) While he normally grounds himself in military science and is therefore believable on account of science, he should be read with a grain of salt. Additionally, the PSYOP - if it's a PSYOP - could be so powerful and believable that even trained officers fall for it. After all, if it's Maskirovka, it's targets are trained officers. ;)
Agree totally. I didn't mean to be endorsing Martyanov's take; I just wanted to respond to Alex's request for additional sources of information and confirmation that something does appear to be afoot.
I think he is really "old school" guy and can not accept such kind of "disrespect" even if it may be necessary for good Maskirovka. He is SSSR officer and he can not bear idea that some waiter could spit on MoD, Gerasimov or Putin. Imagine Prigozhin do that to Stalin :) This is probably reason why Martyanov in my opinion hates these situations.
As others have remarked, this looks like a deep fake psy-op. While Wagner is staging a raid on MOD and Surovikin is cleaning his AK, the sky is falling, the climate is heating up, and the mRNA vaccine is saving us all from Covid. Prygozhin will have Novichok in his breakfast tea.
Thank you for the information. I saw something earlier but not many details. I am praying for peace.
Me too.
I don't see Prigozhin's forces as much of a threat, nor do I see the Wagner forces backing an anti-Putin coup. This sounds like a psyop to me. I could be wrong, but we've seen these kinds of theatrics before.
Surprise operation to liberate Karkov? ... If it is not possible to move large forces without NATO awareness, then a deception operation to confuse the enemy is the only available option to keep some degree of surprise factor. Next 24h will tell.
It is a massive Psychological operation - it just goes to show you desperation in the West, to distract from the failed counteroffensive.
I agree. I vote Maskirovka.
Sun Tzu - appear weak where you are strong.
The MSM is reporting it, so, I don’t believe it.
“Something” might be happening, but I’m 100% certain the MSM is lying about it.
When I turned on my phone this afternoon I saw a headline in a US news report and dismissed it. Then Weeb Union did a big commentary and his thoughts are similar to yours. All I'm thinking is how weird it is. Prigozhin has a history of trolling and mariscova so we can only wait for developments.
The more I think about it, the more this looks like the perfect deception. The West has been trying to achieve a coup in Russia for 20 years. So, Mr. Putin gives them exactly what they have craved. It is a deception in preparation for a real Russian offensive.
I slept now over it and I also tend to believe this scenario. It would also confirm my former analysis about Prigozhin. But we can't be sure yet. I hear Putin is about to deliver a speech soon.
Maybe we will learn then more.
One of us will let you know exactly what is going on..... next week😁
🤣👍
My view on the actions by Prigozhin and the Wagner Group in Russia:
This started as a power struggle between Prigozhin and Shoigu. In the beginning of the Special military operation Shoigu and his team made mistakes and Prigozhin became of strong critic of Shoigu.
Prigozhin then had success in Bakhmut with Wagner Group presenting himself as a better military leader than Shoigu. In my view Shoigu then provoked Prigozhin by limiting ammunition supplies to Bakhmut resulting in Wagner Group losses and a strong reaction from Prigozhin. Many of you have seen the video of Prigozhin attacking Shoigu and the Russian military leadership.
Ammunition deliveries were restored and victory in Bakhmut was achieved but the video outburst by Prigozhin was likely counterproductive for him because the Kremlin and senior political leaders in Moscow saw him as a loose cannon who can’t be trusted.
Prigozhin doubled down predicting a massive loss for the Russian military claiming that it was not ready for the Ukrainian counter-offensive. He claimed that the Russian troops are badly equipped and poorly managed by Shoigu. With the Russian military successfully repelling the Ukrainian counter-offensive Prigozhin had played himself into a corner and his time was running out because Shoigu and his Generals delivered a major victory for the Kremlin.
In my view the actions by Prigozhin are an act of desperation because he has lost the power struggle against Shoigu and is likely facing serious retaliation.
Western media claims this is an attempted coup against Putin. That’s nonsense. The popularity of Putin within Russia and in the non-western world has never been higher. However this war between Prigozhin and Shoigu is an unwelcome distraction for the Kremlin and the most likely outcome will be the arrest or termination of Prigozhin.
source kimdotcom
"On strengthening security measures in Moscow - truth and fiction
We want once and for all to put an end to the strengthening in Moscow, which is now being spread on all Telegram channels in connection with the statement of Yevgeny Prigozhin.
At 2 a.m. on June 22 (a day and a half ago), units of the mobile reserve, individual military units, units of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the FSB, the Federal Security Service and the National Guard were alerted: information was received about the preparation of an armed attack on government facilities. We wrote about this yesterday.
The yellow danger regime was introduced for 10 days: this is due to counter-terrorism measures. All state facilities were strengthened, all outfits were necessarily reinforced with firearms with a proper supply of ammunition.
At the moment, the FSO and the FSB, together with the Ministry of Internal Affairs, are conducting an operation to search for Ukrainian sleeper cells and sabotage and reconnaissance groups (again: not the Wagners, but groups of the Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate). Judging by our information, in the course of operational actions, FSB officers were able to reach two agents of the Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate, who surrendered the entire chain of underground cells in the capital and the Moscow region. Now they are looking for a couple of dozen people who form the basis of the underground network of the Main Intelligence Directorate.
The fact that terrorist attacks and attacks on government facilities were being prepared is evidenced by the facts of undercover intelligence: employees of diplomatic missions in diplomatic diplomatic vehicles traveled all over Moscow, removed security, the order of service - then this information was transmitted to the Main Intelligence Directorate. A complex operation was being prepared.
Yes, the Ministry of Defense is now, to put it mildly, "discussing" the situation with Prigozhin and PMCs.
But the reinforcement measures in Moscow did not begin today - and not for such an occasion. "
source rybar
That is truly an interesting piece of information.
Let's see what will come out of it. If ever communicated, of course.
This might be an intel op — stir up the pot and see what deep agents call home or get calls from home to get out on the streets and see what is going on. And yes these might be messages on a messenger system not real phone calls.
That is something I considered. It reminds me of a Star Trek Voyager episode where Paris was acting like he had a real attitude problem with the command structure of the ship but it was really all about ferreting out a traitor. It’s a very old tactic but it often works.
Also an interesting theory.
Probably, more as a desired side effect. But also probable.
This is like watching World Federation Wrestling. Exaggerated acting. I hope that Priz has not lost his marbles.
Fame and attention appear to have gone to Prigozhin's head.
Inane blather. Thanks Alex. Unsubbed.
I can’t help thinking of mad Monk Rasputin and WW 1. He advised the Tzar not to go to war, and was urging him to make peace in 1916, if I remember correctly. He was killed by very rich aristocrats related to the royal family, and there have long been suspicions (starting with Nicholas) that a British secret service man was involved. Britain wanted Russia to stay in the war and not make a separate peace. Rrigozhin mentioning the war profiteering motive is exactly what outraged the common people in Russia who felt they were being slaughtered for the benefit of the oligarchs. They felt that whenever one of them has the ear of the tzar, that voice will be eliminated by the oligarchs pursuing their own , not the people’s interest. Hence, historians often see this murder as a major contributor to the revolution: No Rasputin, no Lenin. Of course, in this case it may be the opposite scenario - pro-war rather than peace. Perplexed
one more thought: what if this is supposed to trigger a coup not in Moscow but in Kiev?
Wagner’s doc” the best in hell” basically pushes Putin’s line “we are the same people “ = team white against team yellow, not Russians vs Ukrainians. Pointless slaughter for the benefit of Zelensky and the neoliberals, at home and abroad
Interesting.
How about this possibility, "Well, Now It Could Be Stated Openly...
... that Prigozhin is not only a criminal, but, highly likely, the asset of Ukie-NATO axis. "
https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/
Keep in mind that Martyanov has "friends in RuAF". ;) While he normally grounds himself in military science and is therefore believable on account of science, he should be read with a grain of salt. Additionally, the PSYOP - if it's a PSYOP - could be so powerful and believable that even trained officers fall for it. After all, if it's Maskirovka, it's targets are trained officers. ;)
Agree totally. I didn't mean to be endorsing Martyanov's take; I just wanted to respond to Alex's request for additional sources of information and confirmation that something does appear to be afoot.
Thanks👍
You're welcome, Alex.
I think he is really "old school" guy and can not accept such kind of "disrespect" even if it may be necessary for good Maskirovka. He is SSSR officer and he can not bear idea that some waiter could spit on MoD, Gerasimov or Putin. Imagine Prigozhin do that to Stalin :) This is probably reason why Martyanov in my opinion hates these situations.
As others have remarked, this looks like a deep fake psy-op. While Wagner is staging a raid on MOD and Surovikin is cleaning his AK, the sky is falling, the climate is heating up, and the mRNA vaccine is saving us all from Covid. Prygozhin will have Novichok in his breakfast tea.