And I wrote in my article that people announced such offensives during the winter.
I always have argued against it.
Look, it is like Hitler stood at the gates of Moscow in 1941 and Stalin came out and said: "I don't want that war. Please go back to Berlin and leave us alone".
That didn't happen and you know how the events ended...
But still, I agree that Russia doesn't want it. Unfortunately, you have not much choice with a gun on your sleeve...
BTW, I am not trying to be critical. If I had a nickel for every prediction concerning this war, predictions from intelligent and informed people, predictions that did not pan out as expected, I would be the richest cat in history.
De-dollarisation is over stated. what we are seeing is just a switch in transaction currency which means nothing especially as most big transactions all over the world are hedged into the currency the buyer and seller choose to use. And long term transactions will be priced in dollars even if the payment is switched to other currencies on the day of payment.
The real issue is what countries/people/corporates/drugs kings etc do with large money surpluses. At present the only place where you can put large amounts in $1 billion lots into liquid and reasonably safe assets is USD. That won't change in a hurry.
The downside for the dollar is not de-dollarisation of transactions (though it does cut down on US banking sanction power).
The real downside is the revelation that the US is no longer the military all powerful bully that it thought it was. That is when people wonder what supports those twin deficits.
The power of the Dollar does not come from trust, as many people say. But from fear to be smashed against a wall. This fear will be gone exactly the day when Ukraine collapses and Russia takes it. It will be the day when the Dollar will start to collapse visibly. Maybe not instantly but visibly step by step.
The dollar- just like any currency - serves three purposes. Unit of account (e.g. Crude Oil costs $73 a barrel), medium of exchange (e.g. I sell you lemons for $3 a bag), and store of value (e.g. my bank account).
The dollar as the reserve currency served all these functions well. Initially due to the U.S. position after WWII and its industrial base. Then in the 70s due to the petrodollar (Michael Hudson Superimperialism). Then in the 90s and 2000s due to TINA (There is no alternative). The beginning of the end started after the financial crisis and their response to it slowly. What we’re seeing now is the steep end of the curve which is about to get steeper.
But there is a danger here of turning into a Gold Bull - like those guys who predict Gold will quadruple next year while crisis after crisis it doesn't.
Sure USD is vulnerable, but it is not collapsing yet.
Actually the only currency moving right now is the falling Ruble (although is probably being managed by central bank rather than by market forces).
1) The UK Pound might be the first currency to break. Lloyds is very shaky. UK banking is very fragile now. Nigel Farage got de-banked, but more importantly, the people of the UK are getting squeezed tighter and tighter and have to talk to 4 guys in a back rooom for a half hour if they want 1000 pounds cash.
2) Putin has been winning the war and winning the goodwill of the world with patience and restraint. The west has misstepped again and again, which is an obvious sign of weakness and stress. The west doubles-down and Russia stands-pat. It is still working.Putin is up for re-election in half a year. They expect him to act boldly.
I don't expect that. He is consolidating and building power, while the enemy degrades.
Russia is fighting the western oligarchs, the "owners", not their minions.
John, I think what most Western observes underestimate is the value of Russian lives for President Putin. Hence, the emotional factor.
The geopolitical goals are rolling now. The achievements are irreversible and the final blow will be the fall of Ukraine.
Remember February 2022. Everything was in place for the invasion and almost everyone didn't believe that he would actually invade. It was the same... Putin is calm and patient and it is gambling etc. etc.
Don't underestimate Putin's determination. Geopolitics is going well.
Now the mess needs to be cleaned up and the Dollar destroyed by reaching the Polish border. I will write soon in more detail about that.
Nevertheless, I could be wrong and you right on that. I addmit that. We will see.
I agree, Aleks. I think the west is desperate to get Putin to escalate, to pull the NATO alliance together. I can also be wrong.
People observe that Putin is a Judo master, but what he is doing with this SMO is honestly more like Aikido. He is so patient and so careful, yet so precise to perfectly counter and even anticipate an attack. He is sparing lives in general, which is a very high strategy.
Yes, there is attritional-warfare, meat-grinding, but Russia is not seeking out meat to grind. Putin is exhausting the opponent with Aikido, while minimizing death and destruction.
The west is frustrated and frantic as time deadlines fail and fail and fail...
There is one more thing that support your analysis about the advantage of finish this war now.
Russia economy.
Russian economy have hold strength all this year but now the ruble is falling for several reasons, I think one of the main is that the government wants to close its deficit.
With a weaker ruble everything will be cheaper to produce, but of course it will create more inflation on the medium term.
I doubt that this is convenient for Russia, even if Western economies are also suffering from the war they will also suffer from the defeat in Ukraine
I very much agree with you. The day Ukraine collapses and Russia inflict a catastrophical and unequivocal defeat (that cannot be hidden by the Western media) will be the day that de dollarisation really start.
The common currency of BRICS (that could be announce this August in a curious coincidence) it will be just a useful tool, but it cannot by itself trigger the collapse of the dollar.
However, a Russia victorious March through Ukraine, after all the U.S./NATO has bet into Ukraine will be a gargantuan hit to the reputation of the US and the EU.
And that reputation of military and soft power is what keep the value of dollar.
But this is the danger, that the same analysis we do, they do in the State department of the US, so they will try to avoid this for all means.
So the russian March has to be so sudden and quick that there is no time to answer by the West.
the same time I think the biggest hit in terms of value will not be suffered directly by the dollar, but by the other western currencies.
I bet pound and euro will suffer a much bigger hit.
Good article, Aleks. My only point of disagreement is about Odessa. I think they have no choice but to take it, Firstly, it will really make UA a rump state, so that no matter what resources Nato pours in in future, it will never be a real threat. And secondly, it will stop the Yanks trying any funny business in Moldova/Romania.
Russia will definitely take Odessa. Without any question.
That was not what I wrote.
It is about to checkmate Ukraine.
To defeat it. When it is defeated Odessa and ALL other regions goes to Russia by surrender or taking over with no organized resistance. (Which doesn't mean with NO resistance... local groups or NATO saboteurs are always possible).
A Russian offensive may or may not happen. But this whole Ukraine nightmare will only end when the neocons in DC and almost every current Euro "leader" are kicked out of power. Only then will Putin -maybe - be able to give some semblance of trust to any Western-offered negotiations. In the meantime, he will continue to negotiate hypersonically.
NATO will need to be destroyed. Will Nato disband from losing proxy war in Ukraine and Western economic collapse? Or will NATO be defeated by direct military defeat?
Correct. If Nato nations were unable to pay their way when their economies were strong, how will they fund it now when their economies are facing disintegration?
Thank you Aleks. You'll never have a bloody nose in my eyes! I wish the people of the West could dip their oar in and end this. I feel like a powerless bystander in this catastrophe. I'm curious what the 2024 election will look like.
Off topic side bar :-) Sorry. I watch for small signs and changes and I encountered something yesterday while shopping at Whole Foods (owned by Amazon) ... they no longer accept cash at self-checkout. They claim they don't have enough personnel at closing time to count cash. Looks like one more step to condition people for a CBDC.
Yes. In that sense, the globalists have already lost. They have no control over 90% of the world. I don't like the CCP, but there is no way China is going to listen to a fool like Schwab. And the rest of the BRICS will increasingly go their own way too. It is only the soft, sheep-like and subservient Westerners who will fall for this evil rubbish.
It would be a real embarrassment to NATO if Russia launched its offensive before the July NATO meeting in Vilnius. It would be devastating if Russia managed to surround Kiev during the meeting. It would certainly put the neocons on the back foot.
Alek, I'm with you and hate this war too. Like you I see it as a Russian civil war instigated by the USA/NATO and I want to see them totally defeated. I believe Russia hates this war too.
"The start of an offensive in August would not mean that the war would end in August. That is obviously BS. But it would mean that the process of ending Ukraine would start and could be concluded within a reasonable time."
Please define "reasonable time". :-)
The problem with this reasoning is that launching an offensive in August is very risky: it's the end of summer, with autumn just behind the corner and with the weather getting colder and rainy, any movement of tanks and heavy armour would be hampered quickly. So, either Russia acts REALLY quickly, as they did in February 2022, or the war will continue for quite some time (probably another year, because of winter and subsequent rasputitsa).
Russia is waiting for the collapse of Ukraine but it won't happen. CIA fully and extremely efficiently controls the country and will control even last remaining 1%. What I see now is another wasted season. There is a lot of hatred against Strielkov on russian channels but he is basicallyy right from the beginning.
Sir... first to comment... I appreciate a lot Your willing to risk the nose... but me too I hope this charade will end soon.
Trying to link together (maybe too much?) mil and eco and geopol..
Baba Yaga Yellen to China? Trying a last attempt backdoor?
August Brics in South Africa, without Bauer's boy attending?
August final offensive?
Got silver???? :)
I have the same situation as You... working 10 hours a day and then reading and trying to understand the future.
I believe that the best result for all the world (we west too!) would be killing the head of the snake/dragon. I believe that their power lies in the dark magic of fiat money (Sauron, You are nothing... come on...) so it's there where to crush them. But I'm only an hobbit....
Yes... I see some last efforts to calm things down. I wrote in a previous article, that the USA could most likely withdraw. With the next administration and backchannel diplomacy. I don't think this is possible under Biden or his handlers/babysitters.
The FED will hike to ever higher rates as soon as the "trust" in the Dollar starts to collapse. Which of course is not "trust" but fear of being destroyed economically, militarily or by "soft-power" of the USA. That will start when Ukraine falls.
We live very interesting times.... I wish to see just two months in advance... :)
If I may... I have myself my own little firm with about 25 employees, like a big family for me, and being unable to see my and their future is something I dread...
I'm simply scared, not only for me but for them and their families too.
They trusted and trust me to take every time the right decision, but.. I am intimately scared to fail them.
Being proactive... yes, maybe in "normal times"... but with these black swans everywhere???
Your alumni... how they cope with the impossibility to have a proper workflow program?
Well.. I should put now my business consultant hat on, right? :D
I think the following applies for ALL European companies. The smaller they are the more important it is.
You should start now developing abilities to switch your business model as fast as possible. You should not switch it but you should be able if need comes to be as flexible as possible.
Which means that you should start now to look out for other products, industry sectors and markets that you could realize with your current set of employees and machines. And prepare strategies, business models (Business Model Canvas for starters?) and market analysis. Talk with potential future customers to get to know them.
Products of basic needs will be important and products for the defense industry. You don't need to think about lethal goods for the defense industry. You can think of field kitchens, field washing machines etc. Auxiliary goods.
You should not inform your employees about your background activities as long as you don't see hard evidence, that your current business model and markets would start to break away. To not cause panic.
Maybe you are already in a market/industry sector where you and your enterprise is save for what could potentially come? I don't know.
That is called "Risk Management" and I targeted it specifically for the case IF and when the Western currencies start to explode. When importing basic goods from BRICS and SCO will be almost impossible because your currency is not worth the paper it is printed on it, etc.
This does not need to happen. But in the worst case scenario is COULD happen. Please do not panic. Wait, drink tea and prepare contingency plans as advised. Then you should not be surprised by sudden events. (This is only a small part of Risk Management. You should dig deeper into it to make yourself as resilient as possible against external shocks.)
I wish you, your family and your employees all the best and let's hope and pray that nothing bad will happen.
Yes, my friends joke on me like the guy with a lot of plans... a,b,... up to z...
One of my customer is one of the biggest and most famous maker of wool high end suits... the ones maybe You use.
I talked with one friend working inside them and they have a risk management commission (imagine that!) and they are anyway still seeing green lights everywhere.
Two worlds apart... It's me the fool or them blind?
I am the guy who bought one year ago 100 Kw of second hand lithium batteries to make a super cheap battery power wall (a wall indeed) for my own home to be filled with photovoltaic panels... just in case the net would fall.
And I'm still waiting my electricians would find the time to connect them as I need... after one year!
Another problem, maybe common?
Tech people in such short availability, You have to simply wait.
And They speak of resilience... what a joke!
I started worrying in 2011 and it is an illness you never cure... :) Like the famous red pill.
So much time thinking about being like Dr. Jeckill and Mr. Hide, like living two different lives together, the normal daily one and the "other" one thinking proactively how to survive something You don't want to live...
The metaphor of the fool of the village I usually use... I prefer being the fool in a village that is prosper than being the sage who saw further, living better than the others but in a disastred village...
My firm is only a small drop in that fashion textile industry... so only available easy change would be textiles for uniforms...
I wish You the same... because I really believe that we are all together in this messy situation.
The ones with brain to understand what's going on...
Sometimes anyway I envy the sheeples, as I call them... it's worse to see a danger and anyway don't being able to escape it than being caught by surprise...
And... replying to myself... looking at military channel's videos I feel sad. They look like a video game but... when I see something going boom, someone died.
Hi Aleks, I posted my dissenting thoughts here in case you care to shoot them down :) Obviously I have the highest respect for your analysis, I just have a different take on it.
You don't know how much I struggled to release my hypothesis.
Sometimes it is better to keep such controversial hypothesis in ones head. But I think I did the right thing to communicate my assessment. Even though it could prove wrong, I think it was right to do it.
Above that I showed the alternative scenarios as well.
Hence, no worries, I read your article and I fully appreciate that you challenged my hypothesis. That's how it should work. We are no MSM where everyone writes the same ;)
First, I think the big move should/could not be only to end the kinetic military part of the operation. It can and should have a strategic aspect also. It can be used for distraction from other actions in the economic/financial sphere. It can be to drain resources at a critical geopolitical juncture to divert it from being focused on a reaction. That in addition to be used to gain strategic important land/achieve strategic military objectives for later offensives.
In other words, both an overt goal with other covert military and non-military goals.
Second, this is a hybrid war. I think for the first time in hundreds of years the balance of power is not in the West’s favor - and there’s nothing they can do about it. It is quite amazing to watch really. But because it is that, the stakes are high and coordination needs to be done not just within Russia but with all the other allies - declared and undeclared - who have a stake and interest in the creation of this new world.
The one thing that needs to be managed carefully because the crazies in the west and Ukraine are, well crazy. ZNPP, excursions into Russia, strikes on Crmiea, trouble in Transistria/Kallilingrad, etc. If these are managed properly, then the right moment can be chosen and not a minute earlier.
I agree the time for Russia to strike is now, but I still feel isolating Odessa is the key.
Don't expect for things to change much in the U.S.. The deep state players will not allow Trump (my pick) or Kennedy to be President. All the formats for another rigged election are in place, the new puppet has already been selected and will be installed. It's just a matter of getting him ready and exposing him to the public which I believe is in progress ( see Newsome). I pray to God I am wrong.
Biden is most likely so mentally addled and demented that he does not understand what documents he is signing anymore.
Newsom would probably understand, but would sign anyway and smile doing so. No matter how morally wrong and how much suffering to innocents that might cause, no doubts about that.
Shot fired in Texas kills Trump in Florida then changes course to hit RFK in California. Experts explain that since this DID happen, it obviously can happen. Case closed.
My intuition is that the amount of fear, rage and stupidity on both sides is underestimated. If you allow for that and a corresponding reduction in rational planing, tactics and execution we will have more turmoil, inexplicable (idiotic) maneuvers, pure madness and dumb luck. From both sides. Everybody has a plan until they get punced in the mouth.
The GOOD one!!!
Hvala ti👍
Nema na cemu!
We heard similar analyses over the winter with Russian troops in Byelorus.
To me, it is obvious that Russia really does not want this war and is desperately trying to avoid having to escalate.
Meanwhile, the West is absolutely itching for confrontation, at least as long as they aren't doing the dying.
I agree with you.
And I wrote in my article that people announced such offensives during the winter.
I always have argued against it.
Look, it is like Hitler stood at the gates of Moscow in 1941 and Stalin came out and said: "I don't want that war. Please go back to Berlin and leave us alone".
That didn't happen and you know how the events ended...
But still, I agree that Russia doesn't want it. Unfortunately, you have not much choice with a gun on your sleeve...
BTW, I am not trying to be critical. If I had a nickel for every prediction concerning this war, predictions from intelligent and informed people, predictions that did not pan out as expected, I would be the richest cat in history.
No worries, I always appreciate your comment.
Thank you.
Agree with this.
De-dollarisation is over stated. what we are seeing is just a switch in transaction currency which means nothing especially as most big transactions all over the world are hedged into the currency the buyer and seller choose to use. And long term transactions will be priced in dollars even if the payment is switched to other currencies on the day of payment.
The real issue is what countries/people/corporates/drugs kings etc do with large money surpluses. At present the only place where you can put large amounts in $1 billion lots into liquid and reasonably safe assets is USD. That won't change in a hurry.
The downside for the dollar is not de-dollarisation of transactions (though it does cut down on US banking sanction power).
The real downside is the revelation that the US is no longer the military all powerful bully that it thought it was. That is when people wonder what supports those twin deficits.
A lot of thesis here :)
But I think similary.
The power of the Dollar does not come from trust, as many people say. But from fear to be smashed against a wall. This fear will be gone exactly the day when Ukraine collapses and Russia takes it. It will be the day when the Dollar will start to collapse visibly. Maybe not instantly but visibly step by step.
The dollar- just like any currency - serves three purposes. Unit of account (e.g. Crude Oil costs $73 a barrel), medium of exchange (e.g. I sell you lemons for $3 a bag), and store of value (e.g. my bank account).
The dollar as the reserve currency served all these functions well. Initially due to the U.S. position after WWII and its industrial base. Then in the 70s due to the petrodollar (Michael Hudson Superimperialism). Then in the 90s and 2000s due to TINA (There is no alternative). The beginning of the end started after the financial crisis and their response to it slowly. What we’re seeing now is the steep end of the curve which is about to get steeper.
Yes good summary.
But there is a danger here of turning into a Gold Bull - like those guys who predict Gold will quadruple next year while crisis after crisis it doesn't.
Sure USD is vulnerable, but it is not collapsing yet.
Actually the only currency moving right now is the falling Ruble (although is probably being managed by central bank rather than by market forces).
1) The UK Pound might be the first currency to break. Lloyds is very shaky. UK banking is very fragile now. Nigel Farage got de-banked, but more importantly, the people of the UK are getting squeezed tighter and tighter and have to talk to 4 guys in a back rooom for a half hour if they want 1000 pounds cash.
2) Putin has been winning the war and winning the goodwill of the world with patience and restraint. The west has misstepped again and again, which is an obvious sign of weakness and stress. The west doubles-down and Russia stands-pat. It is still working.Putin is up for re-election in half a year. They expect him to act boldly.
I don't expect that. He is consolidating and building power, while the enemy degrades.
Russia is fighting the western oligarchs, the "owners", not their minions.
John, I think what most Western observes underestimate is the value of Russian lives for President Putin. Hence, the emotional factor.
The geopolitical goals are rolling now. The achievements are irreversible and the final blow will be the fall of Ukraine.
Remember February 2022. Everything was in place for the invasion and almost everyone didn't believe that he would actually invade. It was the same... Putin is calm and patient and it is gambling etc. etc.
Don't underestimate Putin's determination. Geopolitics is going well.
Now the mess needs to be cleaned up and the Dollar destroyed by reaching the Polish border. I will write soon in more detail about that.
Nevertheless, I could be wrong and you right on that. I addmit that. We will see.
I agree, Aleks. I think the west is desperate to get Putin to escalate, to pull the NATO alliance together. I can also be wrong.
People observe that Putin is a Judo master, but what he is doing with this SMO is honestly more like Aikido. He is so patient and so careful, yet so precise to perfectly counter and even anticipate an attack. He is sparing lives in general, which is a very high strategy.
Yes, there is attritional-warfare, meat-grinding, but Russia is not seeking out meat to grind. Putin is exhausting the opponent with Aikido, while minimizing death and destruction.
The west is frustrated and frantic as time deadlines fail and fail and fail...
Time is on Russia's side.
There is one more thing that support your analysis about the advantage of finish this war now.
Russia economy.
Russian economy have hold strength all this year but now the ruble is falling for several reasons, I think one of the main is that the government wants to close its deficit.
With a weaker ruble everything will be cheaper to produce, but of course it will create more inflation on the medium term.
I doubt that this is convenient for Russia, even if Western economies are also suffering from the war they will also suffer from the defeat in Ukraine
If most people in the world support Russia, it's because they want to see the Gorilla Bully Cop United States lose.
1. +1
2. Putin is not loosing, but winning not so much.
Really? Tell us more about the "not so much winning".
I very much agree with you. The day Ukraine collapses and Russia inflict a catastrophical and unequivocal defeat (that cannot be hidden by the Western media) will be the day that de dollarisation really start.
The common currency of BRICS (that could be announce this August in a curious coincidence) it will be just a useful tool, but it cannot by itself trigger the collapse of the dollar.
However, a Russia victorious March through Ukraine, after all the U.S./NATO has bet into Ukraine will be a gargantuan hit to the reputation of the US and the EU.
And that reputation of military and soft power is what keep the value of dollar.
But this is the danger, that the same analysis we do, they do in the State department of the US, so they will try to avoid this for all means.
So the russian March has to be so sudden and quick that there is no time to answer by the West.
the same time I think the biggest hit in terms of value will not be suffered directly by the dollar, but by the other western currencies.
I bet pound and euro will suffer a much bigger hit.
Good article, Aleks. My only point of disagreement is about Odessa. I think they have no choice but to take it, Firstly, it will really make UA a rump state, so that no matter what resources Nato pours in in future, it will never be a real threat. And secondly, it will stop the Yanks trying any funny business in Moldova/Romania.
Russia will definitely take Odessa. Without any question.
That was not what I wrote.
It is about to checkmate Ukraine.
To defeat it. When it is defeated Odessa and ALL other regions goes to Russia by surrender or taking over with no organized resistance. (Which doesn't mean with NO resistance... local groups or NATO saboteurs are always possible).
My mistake, Aleks. Let's hope all this wraps up soon!
A Russian offensive may or may not happen. But this whole Ukraine nightmare will only end when the neocons in DC and almost every current Euro "leader" are kicked out of power. Only then will Putin -maybe - be able to give some semblance of trust to any Western-offered negotiations. In the meantime, he will continue to negotiate hypersonically.
NATO will need to be destroyed. Will Nato disband from losing proxy war in Ukraine and Western economic collapse? Or will NATO be defeated by direct military defeat?
NATO will collapse because of a multi vector approach.
Economically. The defeat of Ukraine. Internal struggle. Domestic politics in the USA.
But it will take some time.
I absolutley do not believe in a war between Russia and NATO but who knows. Incidents could trigger it.
Correct. If Nato nations were unable to pay their way when their economies were strong, how will they fund it now when their economies are facing disintegration?
Sun Tzu: "When your enemy is defeating himself, do not interfere."
NATO might be doing that and should be given time, not a provocation.
Indeed :)
Thank you Aleks. You'll never have a bloody nose in my eyes! I wish the people of the West could dip their oar in and end this. I feel like a powerless bystander in this catastrophe. I'm curious what the 2024 election will look like.
Off topic side bar :-) Sorry. I watch for small signs and changes and I encountered something yesterday while shopping at Whole Foods (owned by Amazon) ... they no longer accept cash at self-checkout. They claim they don't have enough personnel at closing time to count cash. Looks like one more step to condition people for a CBDC.
Thank you Cairenn :)
That is really a concerning trend... Along with other WEF programs and visions.
The only positive aspect is, that this agenda hopefully will not be able to spread over the the "non-western" world that is currently emerging.
But who knows.
Hey everyone ... keep using cash and insist on it,
Catherine Austin Fitts has been saying this for over two years now.
Beat me to it!
Yes. In that sense, the globalists have already lost. They have no control over 90% of the world. I don't like the CCP, but there is no way China is going to listen to a fool like Schwab. And the rest of the BRICS will increasingly go their own way too. It is only the soft, sheep-like and subservient Westerners who will fall for this evil rubbish.
Good observation, Cairenn. We can't do much as individuals, but one thing we can do is try and pay with cash whenever we can.
It would be a real embarrassment to NATO if Russia launched its offensive before the July NATO meeting in Vilnius. It would be devastating if Russia managed to surround Kiev during the meeting. It would certainly put the neocons on the back foot.
Alek, I'm with you and hate this war too. Like you I see it as a Russian civil war instigated by the USA/NATO and I want to see them totally defeated. I believe Russia hates this war too.
"The start of an offensive in August would not mean that the war would end in August. That is obviously BS. But it would mean that the process of ending Ukraine would start and could be concluded within a reasonable time."
Please define "reasonable time". :-)
The problem with this reasoning is that launching an offensive in August is very risky: it's the end of summer, with autumn just behind the corner and with the weather getting colder and rainy, any movement of tanks and heavy armour would be hampered quickly. So, either Russia acts REALLY quickly, as they did in February 2022, or the war will continue for quite some time (probably another year, because of winter and subsequent rasputitsa).
I fully agree.
Did you read the whole article? I wrote several days/weeks.
The Ukrainian army will(should?) Be defeated at that time when the Russian offensive kicks off.
Autumn in The Ukraine is like most other places in the temperate zones, cooler, still dry, pleasant. Some of the best weather in the year.
Russia is waiting for the collapse of Ukraine but it won't happen. CIA fully and extremely efficiently controls the country and will control even last remaining 1%. What I see now is another wasted season. There is a lot of hatred against Strielkov on russian channels but he is basicallyy right from the beginning.
The only long term stable solution is to seize entire UA territory. Remaining hardline banderites must be pushed outside the country.
I agree.
Sir... first to comment... I appreciate a lot Your willing to risk the nose... but me too I hope this charade will end soon.
Trying to link together (maybe too much?) mil and eco and geopol..
Baba Yaga Yellen to China? Trying a last attempt backdoor?
August Brics in South Africa, without Bauer's boy attending?
August final offensive?
Got silver???? :)
I have the same situation as You... working 10 hours a day and then reading and trying to understand the future.
I believe that the best result for all the world (we west too!) would be killing the head of the snake/dragon. I believe that their power lies in the dark magic of fiat money (Sauron, You are nothing... come on...) so it's there where to crush them. But I'm only an hobbit....
Yes... I see some last efforts to calm things down. I wrote in a previous article, that the USA could most likely withdraw. With the next administration and backchannel diplomacy. I don't think this is possible under Biden or his handlers/babysitters.
I dream about RFK... could be the last hope against the uniparty...
If I may suggest.. look at this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B4dsDLrBZZ0
The FED will hike to ever higher rates as soon as the "trust" in the Dollar starts to collapse. Which of course is not "trust" but fear of being destroyed economically, militarily or by "soft-power" of the USA. That will start when Ukraine falls.
I will do my own piece/program about that.
We live very interesting times.... I wish to see just two months in advance... :)
If I may... I have myself my own little firm with about 25 employees, like a big family for me, and being unable to see my and their future is something I dread...
I'm simply scared, not only for me but for them and their families too.
They trusted and trust me to take every time the right decision, but.. I am intimately scared to fail them.
Being proactive... yes, maybe in "normal times"... but with these black swans everywhere???
Your alumni... how they cope with the impossibility to have a proper workflow program?
I understand how you feel :)
Well.. I should put now my business consultant hat on, right? :D
I think the following applies for ALL European companies. The smaller they are the more important it is.
You should start now developing abilities to switch your business model as fast as possible. You should not switch it but you should be able if need comes to be as flexible as possible.
Which means that you should start now to look out for other products, industry sectors and markets that you could realize with your current set of employees and machines. And prepare strategies, business models (Business Model Canvas for starters?) and market analysis. Talk with potential future customers to get to know them.
Products of basic needs will be important and products for the defense industry. You don't need to think about lethal goods for the defense industry. You can think of field kitchens, field washing machines etc. Auxiliary goods.
You should not inform your employees about your background activities as long as you don't see hard evidence, that your current business model and markets would start to break away. To not cause panic.
Maybe you are already in a market/industry sector where you and your enterprise is save for what could potentially come? I don't know.
That is called "Risk Management" and I targeted it specifically for the case IF and when the Western currencies start to explode. When importing basic goods from BRICS and SCO will be almost impossible because your currency is not worth the paper it is printed on it, etc.
This does not need to happen. But in the worst case scenario is COULD happen. Please do not panic. Wait, drink tea and prepare contingency plans as advised. Then you should not be surprised by sudden events. (This is only a small part of Risk Management. You should dig deeper into it to make yourself as resilient as possible against external shocks.)
I wish you, your family and your employees all the best and let's hope and pray that nothing bad will happen.
I thank You from my heart Sir.
Yes, my friends joke on me like the guy with a lot of plans... a,b,... up to z...
One of my customer is one of the biggest and most famous maker of wool high end suits... the ones maybe You use.
I talked with one friend working inside them and they have a risk management commission (imagine that!) and they are anyway still seeing green lights everywhere.
Two worlds apart... It's me the fool or them blind?
I am the guy who bought one year ago 100 Kw of second hand lithium batteries to make a super cheap battery power wall (a wall indeed) for my own home to be filled with photovoltaic panels... just in case the net would fall.
And I'm still waiting my electricians would find the time to connect them as I need... after one year!
Another problem, maybe common?
Tech people in such short availability, You have to simply wait.
And They speak of resilience... what a joke!
I started worrying in 2011 and it is an illness you never cure... :) Like the famous red pill.
So much time thinking about being like Dr. Jeckill and Mr. Hide, like living two different lives together, the normal daily one and the "other" one thinking proactively how to survive something You don't want to live...
The metaphor of the fool of the village I usually use... I prefer being the fool in a village that is prosper than being the sage who saw further, living better than the others but in a disastred village...
My firm is only a small drop in that fashion textile industry... so only available easy change would be textiles for uniforms...
I wish You the same... because I really believe that we are all together in this messy situation.
The ones with brain to understand what's going on...
Sometimes anyway I envy the sheeples, as I call them... it's worse to see a danger and anyway don't being able to escape it than being caught by surprise...
And... replying to myself... looking at military channel's videos I feel sad. They look like a video game but... when I see something going boom, someone died.
The snake head moves us like a video game... :(
Hi Aleks, I posted my dissenting thoughts here in case you care to shoot them down :) Obviously I have the highest respect for your analysis, I just have a different take on it.
https://www.gfilotto.com/what-is-sco
No worries, Giuseppe :)
You don't know how much I struggled to release my hypothesis.
Sometimes it is better to keep such controversial hypothesis in ones head. But I think I did the right thing to communicate my assessment. Even though it could prove wrong, I think it was right to do it.
Above that I showed the alternative scenarios as well.
Hence, no worries, I read your article and I fully appreciate that you challenged my hypothesis. That's how it should work. We are no MSM where everyone writes the same ;)
Your attitude is like that amongst the best martial artists! No ego, just trying to improve ourselves and our friends. A rare quality today!
First, I think the big move should/could not be only to end the kinetic military part of the operation. It can and should have a strategic aspect also. It can be used for distraction from other actions in the economic/financial sphere. It can be to drain resources at a critical geopolitical juncture to divert it from being focused on a reaction. That in addition to be used to gain strategic important land/achieve strategic military objectives for later offensives.
In other words, both an overt goal with other covert military and non-military goals.
Second, this is a hybrid war. I think for the first time in hundreds of years the balance of power is not in the West’s favor - and there’s nothing they can do about it. It is quite amazing to watch really. But because it is that, the stakes are high and coordination needs to be done not just within Russia but with all the other allies - declared and undeclared - who have a stake and interest in the creation of this new world.
The one thing that needs to be managed carefully because the crazies in the west and Ukraine are, well crazy. ZNPP, excursions into Russia, strikes on Crmiea, trouble in Transistria/Kallilingrad, etc. If these are managed properly, then the right moment can be chosen and not a minute earlier.
I agree the time for Russia to strike is now, but I still feel isolating Odessa is the key.
Don't expect for things to change much in the U.S.. The deep state players will not allow Trump (my pick) or Kennedy to be President. All the formats for another rigged election are in place, the new puppet has already been selected and will be installed. It's just a matter of getting him ready and exposing him to the public which I believe is in progress ( see Newsome). I pray to God I am wrong.
Is Newsome worse than Biden?
Is being guillotined worse than being electrocuted?
😁😁😁
Biden is most likely so mentally addled and demented that he does not understand what documents he is signing anymore.
Newsom would probably understand, but would sign anyway and smile doing so. No matter how morally wrong and how much suffering to innocents that might cause, no doubts about that.
Could be Biden is stupid and a con artist, Newsome is evil.
https://www.unz.com/kbarrett/trump-kennedy-struck-down-by-magic-bullet/
Shot fired in Texas kills Trump in Florida then changes course to hit RFK in California. Experts explain that since this DID happen, it obviously can happen. Case closed.
God bless you and deliver us from the jaws of the demonic hegemon that ate Serbia.
God bless Serbia
Thank you 🇷🇸
My intuition is that the amount of fear, rage and stupidity on both sides is underestimated. If you allow for that and a corresponding reduction in rational planing, tactics and execution we will have more turmoil, inexplicable (idiotic) maneuvers, pure madness and dumb luck. From both sides. Everybody has a plan until they get punced in the mouth.
Well said ;)